Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Miami Dolphins (21) at Arizona Cardinals (26.5)
Miami Passing Game
In his first career start, Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t asked to do much of anything and still managed to get a victory, thanks in large part to the defense’s two defensive touchdowns. Tagovailoa managed just 4.2 yards per attempt on his 22 passing, completing just 55% percent of his throws. While he managed one touchdown, there really wasn’t much to get excited about from a production standpoint and the underlying metrics show a similar story. Tagovailoa’s 62% clean pocket completion rate, 70% true completion rate and -8.7 expected points added are all well below average. Needless to say, the Dolphins are hoping for much more from their top-five pick as time progresses. This week he’ll face a Cardinals defense that gives up the ninth-fewest yards per attempt and fourth-fewest points allowed per play. That’s not too dissimilar from the Rams defense that held Tagovailoa in check for the entire game this weekend. It’s looking like this is another low-upside spot, though the Awesemo projections are slightly more bullish on Tagovailoa than his 16th-highest quarterback salary would imply.
The receivers certainly felt the lack of pass volume last week, as only one player, Preston Williams, saw more than two targets. His five looks and 53 air yards both, grossly, led the team last weekend, meaning none of these options (including Williams) are anywhere close to safe this weekend. Because of the immensely low overall volume, team-related stats like weighted opportunity share, which was dominated by Williams and Mike Gesicki, need to be taken with a (major) grain of salt. Even though Gesicki earned about 18% of the team’s weighted opportunity, two targets and 42 air yards isn’t really the volume of a fantasy-viable player.
Essentially, any Dolphins receiver worth playing in fantasy football lineups will have almost certainly been incredibly efficient on a per-touch basis and/or had multiple scores, which means fantasy gamers should gravitate towards speedsters and big-play receivers, hoping for a splash play. That means DeVante Parker, who caught Tagovailoa’s lone touchdown toss, and Jakeem Grant, who should see increased playing time and opportunity with Dolphins trading Isaiah Ford to the Patriots at the trade deadline. Those two, not Williams or Gesicki, are the only two Miami options that the Awesemo projections say to consider playing, especially when factoring in salary. Grant’s $3,000 price tag seems particularly intriguing for GPP players this weekend.
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Miami Rushing Game
The Miami backfield’s going to look a lot different this Sunday than it has in recent weeks, as Myles Gaskin, in the midst of a high-quality season, sprained his knee and is expected miss about three weeks. Gaskin accumulated a whopping 52% of the Dolphins’ total opportunities Sunday, second highest on the slate. In fact, Gaskin ranks in the top seven players in the entire NFL in that metric. It’s going to be a massive loss for Miami, who will likely lean on Matt Breida (assuming he’s healthy enough to play, as he missed practices this week as well),forgotten acquisition Jordan Howard, who hasn’t had an opportunity since week 4, and rookie Lynn Bowden, who has yet to see more than 5.1% of team opportunities in a game this season. The Cardinals rank in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per carry, but they’re still within 10% of league average against the run on a per-play basis. They rank right at league average in adjusted line yards. In short, without a reliable back to soak up 30%-plus of the opportunities of the Miami backfield, this committee is likely a stay-away spot for fantasy gamers.
Arizona Passing Game
Two weeks removed from beating the division-rival Seahawks in an overtime thriller, the Cardinals return from their bye week in sole possession of second place in the NFC West and one game out of first place. More importantly for Cardinals fans, quarterback Kyler Murray has played intelligently and efficiently as a passer (when adding in his contributions as a rusher, he’s been nearly unstoppable this season), ranking ninth in the NFL in true passer rating, 11th in true completion percentage and second in fantasy points per dropback. The Cardinals rank in the top 12 in offensive points per play. In short, this is an emergent, explosive offense, featuring an elite offensive line (No. 1 in pass protection rate), an elite quarterback and an elite receiver. That’s a recipe for consistent success in the NFL, and that’s the exact expectation this weekend for the Cardinals when they face Miami in week 9. But make no mistake — the Dolphins are not a pushover defense. Their two defensive touchdowns against the Rams were not an accident. Over the last three weeks, Miami ranks number one in the NFL in both yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play. Murray will need to play at or near his best in order for the Cardinals to earn a victory in week 9.
In spite of those impressive defensive metrics, there’s no reason to count out DeAndre Hopkins, even if he’s understandably the highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate. He’ll likely see plenty of Byron Jones, as Hopkins lines up on the left side of the formation on 86% of the Cardinals’ plays, and Jones lines up on the right side of the defense on 88% of plays. Jones’ PFF defensive grade isn’t as high as it has been in previous years, but it should still be quite the battle this weekend. The Awesemo projections are essentially right in line with Hopkins’ salary-based expectations, indicating this matchup shouldn’t be anywhere near enough to scare off fantasy gamers. There may just be other quality receivers with a similar chance of success near Hopkins in salary this weekend. Beyond Hopkins, however, the rest of this passing offense can essentially be ignored this weekend, if the Awesemo projections are to believed. Every other receiver and tight end slides in well below salary expectations except for Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald carries with him little ceiling, having earned just 15% of the team’s true weighted opportunity share, but he allows for salary-friendly access to the Cardinals offense. At $3,800, Fitzgerald is still consistently schemed plays within the Kliff Kingsbury offense, and he already has games this season with five, seven, seven and eight targets. He may be called upon once again as a chain mover or slot red-zone option, especially if the Dolphins keep the game close. The Awesemo projections rank him well ahead of his 57th-highest wide receiver salary.
Arizona Rushing Game
The Cardinals will be turning the backfield over to Chase Edmonds, at least for one game, while starting running back Kenyan Drake continues to heal from a foot sprain, and the matchup couldn’t be better. The Dolphins rank 29th in yards allowed per carry this season, 31st in adjusted line yards allowed and dead last in Football Outsiders’ run DVOA. Though the one-week sample of the Rams’ Jared Goff throwing 60-plus times lingers in the back of fantasy gamers’ minds, Edmonds appears to be lined up for a full workload in an efficient offense (Arizona ranks top 12 in the NFL expected points added per play), which at first glance makes him appear like a no-brainer play. Fantasy gamers absolutely need to consider ownership, as Edmonds projects to be one of the highest-utilized players on the slate, and his success, despite the quality matchup on paper, is far from guaranteed. That said, there are much worse bets than the Cardinals primary rusher, as the expected workload is undeniably great. Fantasy gamers should absolutely be considering Edmonds in all formats this weekend.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Dolphins 17.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother