Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Carolina Panthers (19.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (31.75)
Carolina Passing Game
The Panthers’ offense sputtered in week 7, no thanks in particular to the vicious, illegal hit on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater that knocked him briefly out of the contest. Bridgewater was able to return in the fourth quarter and rallied the Panthers’ offense to midfield in their final possession while down one score. But then he threw his only interception of the evening at the worst possible time, ending Carolina’s chances at a comeback and allowing the division-rival Falcons to secure their second win on of the season. Besides the final-drive interception, Bridgewater had been highly unspectacular, throwing for just 7.7 yards per attempt (the second-worst mark for Bridgewater this season) and a passer air conversion ratio of .95 (third worst) for a measly 176 yards. In short, had he not been knocked out of week 7 action, he still would not have had a strong fantasy football output. Thirty rushing yards ultimately buoyed Bridgewater from a fantasy perspective, putting him in the top 20 quarterbacks for the fifth time in eight games. The Chiefs, quietly, have become an excellent secondary, ranking in the top six in yards allowed per pass attempt (fourth over the last three weeks) and third in points allowed per play. Even when they’re playing teams not named the Jets, Kansas City has made things quite difficult for opposing quarterbacks, who are usually forced to pass as they try to keep pace with the consistent scoring of the Chiefs’ offense.
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Despite being underutilized in the first half, D.J. Moore ended up securing the team lead in air yards and ranked second in targets but only managed two receptions for 55 yards. A large majority of those yards came in desperation mode in the Panthers’ final drive of week 8. Still, over Carolina’s last three contests, Moore holds the slight edge in air yards share, target share, red zone target shar, and average depth of target over Robby Anderson. It’s been an erratic year from Moore production-wise, but it’s something fantasy gamers need to be mindful of, as his salary sinks below Anderson for the week 9 slate. Anderson managed to haul in five of eight targets a week ago and has been more efficient than Moore on a per-target basis this season, which might explain why the projections edge on Awesemo.com goes to Anderson this weekend. In fact, Awesemo’s projections indicate Anderson’s a relative steal compared to his 15th-highest wide receiver salary on the main slate. Moore’s projection isn’t much worse as Awesemo is bullish on him at his salary as well. Even Curtis Samuel, the multi-touchdown scorer a week ago, has a projection ahead of salary-based expectation. In spite of their heavy underdog status, the Panthers passing attack, likely forced into desperation passing mode at some point in this game, makes a ton of sense to utilize when creating a Chiefs passing stack (and wishing to run it back with a Panthers’ player) or as a contrarian game stack, with obvious run-back options from the Chiefs.
Carolina Rushing Game
Christian McCaffrey is set to return this weekend, but the looming question remains: Will Mike Davis have a role? This article’s author says a resounding “not really,” as Davis still secured 13 of the team’s 17 rushing attempts despite being vultured near the goal line by Samuel, who has seen between two and four rushing attempts in all but two games this season. McCaffrey may not see the 27 opportunities he had in week 1 or the 23 he had before going down in the fourth quarter of week 2, but we can expect at least 70% of the backfield workload to go to arguably the best back in the NFL. The Panthers have their backfield hoss, and they’ll use him accordingly despite Davis’ solid play (from an elusiveness standpoint, it’s been much more than solid). Of course, there’s no margin for error when choosing McCaffrey for your daily fantasy football lineups, he’s right back to being the highest-salary running back on the main slate this weekend. That’s well within the range of outcomes for McCaffrey, even in his first game back especially if the Panthers’ offense is able to keep pace with the explosive Chiefs’ offensive attack.
Kansas City Passing Game
Patrick Mahomes going completely bananas on the Jets’ minor league defense was one of the great joys for fantasy gamers and football fans alike in week 8. Mahomes had an extremely “Mahomesian” day, tossing five touchdowns on a stupendous 9.9 yards per attempt, totaling 416 yards on his 42 attempts. It was his second top overall quarterback performance and third time in the top two this season as the Chiefs continue their rampage through their 2020 schedule. Their one lone blemish remains their week 5 loss to a quality Raiders team. Mahomes, who now ranks ahead of Russell Wilson in quarterback composite efficiency, appears to be in a position to once again pay off as the highest salary quarterback on the main slate. The Awesemo projections are a little bit cooler than a week ago (hint: the Panthers are not the Jets) but still have Mahomes ranked among the top three signal callers in median projections. The ceiling, of course, is a slate-breaking score.
After a quiet week 7, tight end Travis Kelce led the team with 12 opportunities and made the most of those looks, securing 75% of them for 109 yards and a score. Not to be outdone, Tyreek Hill scored twice and added 98 yards of his own on an average depth of target of nearly 22. Over the last three games, Hill and Kelce have combined for 52% of the team’s air yards and 63% of the Chiefs’ red zone targets. As if fantasy gamers needed any reminder, the duo of Hill and Kelce remains the highest-upside receiver-tight end duo in the game today, and they should the primary targets for both Mahomes and fantasy gamers wishing to get access to this consistently fantastic offense. The Awesemo projections like Kelce a bit more than Hill this weekend, but that doesn’t preclude either or both from going off two games in a row. Fantasy gamers don’t have much to consider when it comes to the Chiefs’ auxiliary options, as both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson both have played on less than 75% of the Chiefs snaps of the last three weekends, and neither has eclipsed 130 total air yards during that span. Robinson continues to play over Hardman, but both have seen nearly equal opportunity (not dissimilar to the running backs, see below) lately, each earning exactly 12 targets on an ADOT between 9 and 10.5, with one touchdown each. Robinson’s salary ($3,200) is considerably lower than Hardman’s ($4,800), but both make intriguing, low-owned GPP plays in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.
Kansas City Rushing Game
With many expecting the Chiefs to play conservatively against the putrid Jets, the game flow ended up being much closer at halftime (21-9) than many believed it would be. It forced the passing game to continue in it’s typical fashion, thereby limiting the number of opportunities for running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell. In fact, the two split their opportunities exactly evenly, receiving nine total looks (including three targets) each. Needless to say, nine total looks isn’t enough volume to warrant consideration in fantasy football lineups, no matter how many points the offense is putting up as a whole. While there will certainly be big days from both of these backs in the coming weeks, it’s going to be extremely difficult to guess between the two. Edwards-Helaire has seen about 58% of the team’s backfield opportunities since Bell arrived, but this is trending down, as week 9 so perfectly illustrated the dreaded 50-50 split. Neither are particularly easy to trust at their 11th-highest (Edwards-Helaire) and 21st-highest running back salaries on the main slate.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Panthers 21.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother