Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Las Vegas Raiders (25.75) at Los Angeles Chargers (27.75)
Las Vegas Passing Game
Stymied by poor weather conditions in Cleveland during their week 8 contest against the Browns, Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr was asked to throw just 24 times, his fewest in the last two years. And it was for good reason, as Carr was only completing 4.7 yards per attempt, just barely more than the team’s 4.6 yards per carry last weekend. His paltry 112 total passing yards (on a passer air conversion ratio of just a dreadful 0.80) were also a season-worst. Simply, the Raiders were better off running. Carr saved his fantasy production with 41 rush yards of his own, and a solo passing touchdown, but it was still good enough for just the 21st best fantasy quarterback in week 8, despite ranking significantly higher among quarterbacks in salary a week ago.
This week, expecting much nicer conditions and playing a Chargers pass defense that ranks 28th in points allowed per play, the salary for Carr suggests he should bounce back from the poor week 8 stat line. The Awesemo projections tend to agree, showing Carr as a value-play relative to salary. With less than 7% in projected ownership, a large majority of fantasy gamers will be looking elsewhere in their daily fantasy football lineups, making Carr a sneaky-strong start this Sunday.
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Despite the significant reduction in pass volume, Las Vegas still found a way to get tight end Darren Waller six looks, but he turned into five receptions into only 28 yards, leading to a rather disappointing 7.8 fantasy points. Hunter Renfrow and Henry Ruggs saw just four targets apiece but tied for second in target share, and while Renfrow caught the lone passing touchdown of the day, it was Ruggs who had the significant edge in average depth of target. Even in terrible weather, Ruggs still had an ADOT north of 15 (close to his season average of 18.9), highest on the squad. Nelson Agholor and Jason Witten were both held to two looks or fewer in the passing game, but Agholor continues to see high-value opportunities, with a red zone target in week 8 and tied for second on the team in red zone targets over the past three week. The only clear-cut option on a week-to-week basis from a volume perspective is Waller, and the Awesemo projections wholeheartedly agree. Waller and Carr are in-line with salary-based expectations, while the rest of the receiving corps, ranging from the 32nd (Ruggs) to the 47th- (Renfrow) highest salary on the main slate, all have projections that rank well below their salary ranking. They’re for only the most risk-embracing GPP players this weekend.
Las Vegas Rushing Game
With the weather conditions downright horrific in week 8, the Raiders leaned on running back Josh Jacobs in a way they hadn’t all season. They fed their bell cow 32 opportunities, five times more than any other player on the team last Sunday. While he didn’t have the same monster output that fellow 30-opportunity back Dalvin Cook had last week, Jacobs responded fantastically, totaling 128 yards of his own. Almost incredibly, 100% of Jacobs’ total yards came through the rushing game, as Carr continues to look elsewhere in the passing game. Jacobs has averaged just an 8.5% target share over the Raiders’ last three games. Still, the Chargers rank 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, 20th in adjusted line yards allowed and 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. That’s a very enticing metrics for a player who’s only the 10th-highest-salary running back on the main slate. The usage and the matchup make Jacobs an easy bet as he faces the middling Chargers defense.
Los Angeles Chargers Passing Game
It was yet another heartbreaking loss for the Chargers on Sunday, as the Los Angeles defense ruined another strong performance by quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert’s play wasn’t quite as efficient as we’ve seen in recent weeks, as his 6.5 yards per attempt were his fewest in six starts, but his three touchdown passes more than made up for his middle-of-the-road efficiency. In fact, it was good enough for a top-five fantasy performance among quarterbacks in week 8. And yet, inexplicably, Herbert moves to one and five as a starter.
Ignoring the win-loss record, however, it’s yet another top-five fantasy performance from an emergent star in the NFL. Yes, the sample size is small still, but the underlying metrics on Herbert look fantastic, as he ranks second in the NFL in expected points added per play and well above league average in true drive success rate. His closest comparable quarterback (in the context of those two metrics) is Ryan Tannehill, who has been a top-10 quarterback in 50% of starts since week 9 of last season. Herbert’s outpacing that rate thus far, having accomplished that feat in two-thirds of his starts thus far. Plus he’s facing a Raiders team that ranks 26th in yards allowed per attempt and over the last three weeks has allowed the sixth-most points per play. They may have only allowed a singular field goal to the Browns in week 9, but make no mistake, in typical weather conditions, the Raiders are an absolutely exploitable defense, and Herbert and the offense should be able to take advantage. The Awesemo projections agree and have Herbert ranked right in line with his seventh-highest quarterback salary on the main slate.
In the receiving game, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen shared the bulk of the Chargers’ passing volume in week 8, with Williams having the edge in air yards (commanding nearly 40% of the team’s total, compared to Allen’s 30%). While Allen held a three-target lead, both commanded one-fifth of the team’s red zone targets as well. Hunter Henry, typically the tertiary option in the Chargers’ offense, saw much less usage, with Herbert choosing instead to rely heavily on his backfield and Jalen Guyton. Guyton equaled Henry’s target share but had an average depth of target of nearly 25, meaning he received over a quarter of the team’s air yards on just four targets. That makes his one catch for 3 yards quite deceptive, and he remains a big-play threat in plus matchups, which this week’s matchup undoubtedly is.
Over the last three weeks, Henry’s tied for second in targets but tied with four teammates for the lead in red zone target share. Simply put, Henry isn’t a red zone weapon as we once thought of him (especially with Philip Rivers under center in the past). He’s not without value, but Henry is a thinner play than previously thought. The next consideration, at least for fantasy gamers, is salary, and Henry’s dipped all the way outside of the top 10. At that salary-based expectation, fantasy gamers can absolutely consider putting Henry in daily fantasy football lineups. Just because the floor is a bit lower than previously thought, Henry’s ceiling (six-plus catches and multiple scores) is still absolutely attainable against the Raiders this weekend. Las Vegas has allowed 2 more fantasy points per game to tight ends than their opponent’s average, bottom 10 in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Game
Justin Jackson re-emerged as the primary back for the Chargers in their week 8 loss, but much more notable is the backfield’s emergent new role player, Troymaine Pope, who secured 17 opportunities. That was just five fewer than Jackson, and Pope managed 95 total yards, third most on the team. The utilization of Pope as a backfield weapon is certainly bad news for Joshua Kelley, who only played on 24% of snaps and produced a feeble 25 yards on eight opportunities. In week 9, they’ll face a Raiders team that has been quite exploitable on the ground, ranking 20th in yards allowed per carry and 31st in Football Outsiders’ run DVOA. With the Chargers giving 75% of their opportunities to either their backfield options or Allen, this is certainly a place fantasy gamers should be looking for consolidated touches in a plus-matchup. The obvious first option is Jackson, who’s only the 26th-highest-salary running back on the main slate. Pope is also a fine flyer choice for tournament players, his $4,000 salary allows for major flexibility at other roster positions.
Prediction: Raiders 28, Chargers 24.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother