Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: New York Giants (20) @ Washington Football Team (23)
New York Giants Passing Game
The Giants nearly stole a win against AFC South leader Tampa Bay in week 8, and quarterback Daniel Jones had a run-of-the-mill performance, at least compared to what we’ve come to expect from him. And that’s fairly impressive, considering the quality of the Buccaneers defense. Jones threw 41 times (his most since week 1), and connected on 61% of his passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns, though he also threw two picks, including the costly game-clinching interception that ruined any chance of a comeback. His 20 rushing yards were actually his second lowest total all season, as he’s already recorded four games with 45 or more rush yards this season. Still, Jones has yet to record a game with 7.0 yards per attempt, or a game with two more touchdowns than interceptions. While still buoyed by a decent rushing floor, and not saddled with an exorbitant salary on the main slate (his salary is eighteenth among quarterbacks), Jones looks like a pretty decent value in a slate without glaringly obvious mid-tier quarterback options. The Washington defense is league average in yards allowed per attempt, and in points allowed per play, but the real trouble lies with the defensive line – Washington’s pass-rush grade on PFF still ranks in the top-8 in the NFL, while the Giants pass block grade is last in the league.
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Assuming Jones can get throws away accurately without being completely swarmed by Washington’s pass-rush, the Giants receivers, particularly Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, could actually be solid value plays at their respective salaries. Slayton still ranks within the top-15 in true weighted opportunity share, and has had games with 7, 7, 9, 9, and 11 targets this season, with an average depth of target of nearly 13. With a salary outside the top-25 receivers, Slayton makes sense this weekend simply because his expected usage is significantly higher than his salary based expectation. The same is doubly true for Shepard, who actually averages more targets per game than Slayton, though he’s played in less contests due to his stint on injured reserve. The Awesemo projection for Shepard ranks him well above his 35th highest wide receiver salary on the main slate. Even Evan Engram, who had trade rumors swirling about this week, but to no avail, could be a quality option this week. Engram ranks second on the team in red zone target share.
New York Giants Rushing Game
The Giants appear to be trending towards the hideous “three headed monster approach” heading into their sixth game without star back Saquon Barkley, and the first without free agent signing Devonta Freeman, as Wayne Gallman saw just 20% of the team’s opportunities (on just a 43% snap share), followed by sub-10% opportunity shares for both Alfred Morris, who was on the field for 28% of snaps himself, and Dion Lewis, also on the field for exactly 28% of snaps. Gallman, to his credit, has now scored in back to back games, and totalled 54 and 62 yards over the last two weeks. But this is still a nasty, low-ceiling backfield, facing a Washington team that ranks in the top-12 in yards allowed per carry. Even if Freeman is able to return to a normal workload (25% of opportunities, 2.0 targets per game), this is an easy “stay-away” backfield this weekend.
Washington Passing Game
The Washington Football Team looked, dare I say, like the obviously better football team against the Dallas Cowboys in week 7, their last contest before a week 8 bye. Kyel Allen, to his credit, threw for a fairly efficient 7.8 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and no interceptions, good enough for the 17th best fantasy output by a quarterback that week. That marks two straight starts inside the top 20 in fantasy scoring, which should give fantasy gamers some immediate hope that Allen might actually be able to outpace his QB19 salary on the DraftKings main slate. Allen’s performance is made even more impressive by the fact that he only threw 25 passes, and only rushed for 11 yards. As we saw when Allen was the Panthers’ starter in 2019, there are stretches where Allen plays starting-quarterback caliber football, and it’s a large reason why Washington is favored in this divisional matchup against the struggling Giants.
The Giants aren’t an easy out defensively, however. They rank in the top-12 in points allowed per play, but if they’re going to be beaten, it’s through the air, as the Giants rank in the bottom-10 in yards allowed per pass attempt, and bottom-5 in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA. Theoretically, this should be an exploitable matchup for a competent pass offense, the issue of course, is that we don’t always get that from Washington. Fantasy gamers willing to embrace the risk, and hope Washington’s improved play as of late isn’t an aberration, could absolutely be rewarded in this plus-matchup for the passing game.
Budding superstar Terry McLaurin now leads all receivers in true weighted opportunity share, nad hasn’t had a game all season where he’s had less than seven targets. He’s one of only six players averaging 10 or more targets per game, and his average depth of target has been between 9.5 and 11 yards in every single game this season. Even if he’s going up against top-10 cornerback (by PFF grades) James Bradberry on some of his routes, the aforementioned metrics indicate McLaurin has one of the highest usage floors at the wide receiver position, and is only projected to be the ninth highest owned wideout this weekend. McLaurin is a smash-play this weekend, particularly on full-PPR sites like DraftKings.
Washington Rushing Game
It’s almost bizarre to say such a thing, but Washington is a home favorite this weekend. That means, fundamentally, we should be targeting the starting running back, and Gibson certainly fits the bill, as he’s averaged a 27% opportunity share this season, more than 16% higher than any other back on Washington this season. Gibson has yardage totals of 51,52, 55, 60, 128 and 128 (again) already this season, and averages over three targets per game as well. The Giants do have a fairly stout run defense, ranking in the top-5 in yards allowed per carry, and there’s a bit of concert over lack of receiving volume for Gibson (he was held to one target in week 7, but receiving game specialist back, J.D. McKissic also only saw two targets), but overall, the game script could very possibly call for a heavy doses of running plays, and if so, Gibson should get the requisite usage to be more than just fantasy viable. The Giants are giving up nearly two more fantasy points per game to running backs than their opponents’ average, and Gibson ranks outside the top-12 running backs in salary this weekend. He’s a great addition to fantasy gamers’ player pools this weekend.
Prediction: Giants 24, Washington 20
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother