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Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl LV Picks and Strategy

Kyle Dvorchak



NFL Football Prop Bets: Patrick Mahomes & Derrick Henry Optimal ROI | Chiefs vs Titanss

Monkey Knife Fight is a new fantasy sports platform that lets you choose players based on your projection of their stats. They offer a number of different game modes, some of which feature choosing if a player records more or less of a specific stat (including fantasy points) and some of them are head to head. Possibly the best part about these choices is that you can make some effort to correlate them. The more choices you make correctly the better your payout is. In that way it feels similar to NFL DFS with the combinations of players and the best outcomes resulting in big paydays. I’ll take a look at their three major game types and give some advice using our projected stats which should give us a nice edge.

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Monkey Knife Fight Super Bowl LV Picks and Strategy

Rapid Fire

Rapid Fire features two players going head to head in a specific stat and you simply have to pick which one wins. Monkey Knife Fight will often give one player a bonus to give them a fighting chance to outdo the other player. Their contests feature different groups of matchups but the specific matchups remain constant. Some Rapid Fire contests also feature more matchups for a better payout.

Travis Kelce (+.5) More Receiving Yards than Tyreek Hill

Our projections simply have Travis Kelce outright posting more yards than Tyreek Hill by just over six so it’s nice that Monkey Knife Fight also breaks ties in favor of Kelce. Since the midway point of the season, Kelce is posting 114.7 yards per game. Hill is just behind him at 113.4 but much of that comes from his 269-yard game versus the Bucs. Hill has a higher ceiling but we don’t need to be right by a lot, only more often than we’re wrong (and a little more). Over that span, Kelce has never dropped below 80 yards once. Hill has done so four times.

The other Rapid Fire matchups are close to even but somehow giving Tom Brady 30.5 bonus yards doesn’t bring him quite as high as Patrick Mahomes according to our projections. We’ll have more on Mahomes in a minute.

More or Less

More or Less has you choose if a player tops a specific number in a given stat. If you get multiple answers correct you’ll have a nice payout. There are More or Less contests ranging from only two questions all the way up to six. They also have contests that allow you to miss one of your questions at the expense of the payout being reduced. I’d recommend staying close to the two and three question contests simply to reduce your variance.

Leonard Fournette Less than 59.5 Rushing Yards

Leonard Fournette is likely to earn the majority of the rushing work for Tampa Bay but a simple majority may not be enough for him to top 59.5 yards on the ground. The Bucs lead the league in neutral game script pass rate. Only 34.6% of Tampa Bay’s plays have resulted in a run when they are close to their opponent in score. On top of that, Ronald Jones is pulling a significant amount of work away from Fournette. He has siphoned off 23 of 52 Tampa Bay running back carries in the past two games.

Patrick Mahomes More than 333.5 Passing Yards

As alluded to in the Rapid Fire section, Mahomes is simply underpriced on Monkey Knife Fight. He started the year off well but has hit another level in the second half of the season:

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  • Weeks 1-8: 289.4 passing yards per game
  • Week 9 – AFC Championship: 333.8 passing yards per game

The second split is also before factoring out the drives he missed versus Cleveland when Chad Henne stepped in and threw for 66 yards. This game, with a 57 total versus another elite offense, sets up to be a grand finale for Mahomes.

Stat Shootout

Stat Shootout sets a goal of a specific stat and lets you create a group of players to collectively achieve that goal for a specific payout. The higher the goal, the better the payout.

Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes to Combined for More than 639.5 Passing Yards

The payout on this contest is 2x but you can also get More than 700.5 for a 3x payout if you’re feeling risky. We’ve already talked about Mahomes but Brady deserves some love as well. He finished third in the NFL in passing yards per game during the regular season and this looks like a spot to buy on him as well (just not versus Mahomes directly). Brady has played in 12 games with a final combined score of at least 50 points. He’s averaged 323 yards per game in those 12 contests. Mahomes hitting a ceiling game likely has some correlation with a Brady ceiling game and their median projection would already combine to be over 639.5 yards. Both the 2x and 3x versions of this contest show some solid value.

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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