Week 10 is up next and that means we only have 13 games to breakdown this week. Six teams are on byes so the main DFS slate will be shorter than expected as well. On the NFL betting side we have a few double digit spreads, but overall we see another week of competitive games. A few stand out in terms of two potential playoff teams going at it, and a few we need to keep an eye on for injury news as we get closer to lock. Let’s get into some Week 10 NFL best bets and give out some free NFL picks against the spread.
Week 10 NFL Best Bets
Chargers -1 at Raiders
Bills at Browns -3 Cardinals at Bucs -4.5 Falcons at Saints -13
Ravens -10 at Bengals Panthers at Packers -5 Lions at Bears -2.5
Dolphins at Colts -10.5 Rams -3.5 at Steelers Chiefs -4 at Titans
Giants -2 at Jets Vikings at Cowboys -3
Seahawks at 49ers-6
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns -3, O/U 40
Two teams that may be similar in talent, but the records tell a different story. The Bills sit at 6-2, taking advantage of a soft schedule and weak opponents. The Browns on the other hand sit at 2-6 on extreme life support and its hard to imagine them finding a way to salvage this season.
When the Bills are able to limit the turnovers and protect QB Josh Allen they become a tough team and that is the formula they need to use. In both their losses this year Allen was sacked four times and against the Patriots he also threw three picks which is going to get it done. The Browns defense has some talent, but the main concern has to be limiting the pass rush to give Allen time. If either team is able to get a lead in this one we could see the run game take over and a grind it out type game script to occur.
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The Browns once again sunk to a new low last Sunday as they lost in Mile High to the Broncos. Furthermore they lost to a new QB for Denver as Branden Allen was able to do enough and on the offensive side the Browns once again couldn’t figure it out. Baker Mayfield is a turnover machine and for the Browns to have any chance in this second half of the season he has to find ways to hold onto the ball. I expect the Browns to lean on the run game as the Bills defense has been much stronger against the pass so far this season.
Looking at both teams pace of play we see neither are in a hurry, especially if that are able to get the ground game going and take the pressure off their QB. Add that with defenses that I think both have advantages vs each other’s offensive unit and I think we see a low scoring affair in Cleveland this week.
NFL Best Bets: My Pick: Under 40
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5, O/U 51
This game could be a goldmine for DFS this week, but I also have some interest on the betting side of things. We have the Cardinals coming off a Thursday night game traveling to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Last week Tampa Bay was almost able to pull off a big road win at Seattle, but the defense could hold up and they lost in overtime. Tampa now sits at 2-6 on the year, but they still are a hard team to gauge in terms of where they fall in the league hierarchy.
The same could be said for Arizona, who sits at 3-5-1 on the year and is still searching for an identity. We know that they want to play fast, but in recent weeks the pace is slowing and Kyler Murray still has a lot of holes in his game. The three straight victories over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants looks worse with every week as all of them are towards the bottom of the league. Against San Francisco they were able to limit the rushing attack, but they were unable to hold up in the secondary as Jimmy G threw for four TDs.
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On the Bucs side we know the problems as Jameis Winston seemingly cannot avoid the turnovers. He only had one turnover last week, but it was a costly one and that seems to really limit the Bucs potential on a week to week basis. Other than that Winston has been solid and we know that the upside is there for him and this entire offense is they can just avoid those big mistakes. Facing an Arizona defense that was just torched by San Francisco thru the air should give Tampa ample opportunities to put up points.
Tampa is at home in this game and has a formula that should cause problems for this Cardinals team. We know they are one of the best against the run in the entire league ranking 1st in DVOA and this should force Kyler to have to beat them thru the air. Offensively they are going against one of the worst secondaries in the league and if Jameis has time and avoids turnovers we should see a big stat line from him and this offense. Coming off a tough stretch of teams including the Rams, Saints, Panthers, and Seahawks in recent weeks I expect Tampa to find a way back into the win column with a relatively easy win over Arizona.
NFL Best Bets: Buccaneers -4.5
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Josh Jacobs to win Offensive Rookie of the Year +100
Since we are basically still near the midway point of the season it’s a good time to take a look at any seasonal props that we may want to still take a position on. Some have gotten out of hand with divisions almost locked down by a specific team, but others are still wide open. Scanning some of the awards and the one that caught my eye was the Offensive Rookie of the year award.
Just scanning over the league we only have a few guys that even have a shot for this award, so let’s dig into that. Outside of Jacobs we have a string of quarterbacks who are next up in the odds with Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, and Daniel Jones all chasing Jacobs. First let’s get rid of Minshew who is being relegated to the bench now that Foles is back in business. Next we have Danny Dimes, who despite not being a train wreck still has lost five straight games and the luster is wearing off what was that initial hype train when he led the comeback win in his debut.
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That leaves Kyler Murray, who certainly has a shot for this award as he was the #1 pick and hasn’t had a terrible season. However the Cardinals are going nowhere and Murray has yet to really flash monster upside especially with his dual threat ability. On the other hand Jacobs just exploded in October and is coming off an 120 yard 2 TD performance against the Lions. He has the Raiders in playoff contention and if they are able to remain in that hunt it will only bolster his case to win this award. He is sitting at even money and after what I have seen in recent weeks that still plenty of value for me in this spot.
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-Good luck everyone!