The NFL Betting Column with Ben Rasa: Week 11 NFL Picks ATS, Odds and Lines

Week 11 is here and it’s a 14-game slate to breakdown. We also have a game in Mexico City on Monday Night between the Chiefs and Chargers and unsurprisingly, there are some huge matchups with playoff implications. A few games still are off the board as they wait for news on their starting quarterbacks, but we have plenty of games to look at from an NFL picks perspective. Keep in mind as we get further into the season, weather will become more of an issue and it is not a shock to see totals down across a lot of places that aren’t indoors. Generally, I think weather is overblown in DFS, but grabbing a total early in the week can be a great way to capture some value if we think there will be an impact.

** When looking at lines one of the important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available. Over time this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the markets**

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Week 11 Schedule

Thursday

Steelers at Browns -2.5

Sunday    

Saints -5.5 at Bucs                        Falcons at Panthers -5.5                         Broncos at Vikings -10.5      

Jets at Redskins -1.5                      Bills -5.5 at Dolphins                               Texans at Ravens -4         

Patriots -3.5 at Eagles                  Bengals at Raiders -10.5                            Bears at Rams -7           

Cardinals at Niners -13                    Jags at Colts OTB                                 Cowboys at Lions OTB

*OTB – Off the board

Monday

Chiefs -4 at Chargers (In Mexico City)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -5.5, O/U 49.5

NFC South divisional game that before the season easily could have been thought of as a potentially top-end battle with major playoff implications. This game certainly means a lot to Carolina’s playoff hopes, but for Atlanta the season is lost despite last week’s monumental upset. The Panthers sit at 5-4 and are in the thick of the wildcard race, while Atlanta is just 2-7 on the year and battling to just stay out of the basement of the division. This is also the first game the Falcons will play outdoors so far this season, which doesn’t mean much for NFL picks even if it’s insane to think about.

Atlanta got their franchise quarterback back, but that still doesn’t explain the performance last week in New Orleans. That was an outlier in every sense of the word, but it’s still a much needed boost to a team that’s had maybe the most disappointing season in the entire league. The immediate shocking stat we see from last week is Atlanta had six sacks against New Orleans, which doubled their total on the season. Having six sacks through the first eight games is terrible, but if they are able to generate pressure more consistently, that will go a long way to racking up more victories. On offense, we know Matt Ryan has weapons on the outside even if they are dealing with a few injuries (Austin Hooper) that could affect the offensive attack.

Last week, Carolina lost a hard-fought game up in Lambeau, but they showed they can compete with the top-end teams in this league. With Kyle Allen being serviceable at quarterback and Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, this offense will cause problems for Atlanta’s defense and I don’t see a repeat of what they did to Drew Brees. Carolina, on the other hand, needs to find a way to limit the rushing attack as they’ve been gashed by several backs in recent weeks and have one of the worst DVOA in the league. If they can force Atlanta to play catch-up, they should generate plenty of pressure and really have success on both sides of the ball this week.

My NFL Pick: Panthers -5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns -2.5, O/U 51

This is a Thursday night game with major implications for both teams as the Steelers travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Each team has a playoff pulse and this could be the difference of which team, if either, are able to find the postseason. The Steelers have survived injuries to at quarterback and now sit at 5-4. Mason Rudolph is tasked with leading the offense, but there is no doubt the strength of this team has been on defense. The secondary in particular has been fantastic and newly acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick has immediately paid dividends for Pittsburgh. They will force the Browns to have a balanced offensive attack and dropping back 40-plus times in this game is clearly not the answer.

The Browns had a terrible start to the season and this franchise once again finds themselves bordering on irrelevancy if they cannot get on a run. They sit at 3-6 and although they still have a ton to play for, they haven’t looked like a serious playoff team thus far. Baker Mayfield needs to limit the turnovers and find a way to get Odell Beckham the ball, despite what will be a tough matchup against this secondary. With two effective backs available, the Browns are equipped to move the ball and put pressure back on Rudolph and this Steelers offense. Mayfield has 12 picks on the season, but was turnover free last week against Buffalo. Last week, they found a way to win a close competitive game against the Bills and they will need that type of turnover-free effort once again here.

This game, like many, will come down to which quarterback can make the big plays and avoid the big turnovers. Both defenses have shown they can do their part, and while the strength of Pittsburgh is in the secondary, I believe that Cleveland’s priority will be rushing the passer and putting some heat on Rudolph. The Browns are home here which is big advantage especially on a short week and to me, that is one of the crucial aspects of this game. As hard as it is to trust Mayfield, I still back him at home against Rudolph in a short week road start.

My NFL Pick: Browns -2.5

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Good Luck everyone!