The NFL Betting Column with Ben Rasa: Week 15 NFL Picks ATS, Odds and Lines

Week 15 is up and that means only three weeks to go in the NFL regular season. Some teams are eliminated and fighting for a top draft pick, while others are in the playoff hunt battling for first-round byes. With some major mismatches, we have a handful of spreads approaching double digits this week, so we will have to see if there are any major upsets when the dust settles. With some key injuries still yet to be determined, keep an eye on the lines before making NFL picks as there will be some major changes as we get closer to Sunday.

** When looking at lines for NFL picks, one of the important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the markets**

Week 15 Schedule

Thursday

Jets at Ravens -14.5                           

Sunday    

Patriots -9.5 at Bengals                 Buccaneers -3.5 at Lions                    Bears at Packers -4.5        

Texans at Titans -3                        Broncos at Chiefs -11                         Dolphins at Giants -3         

Eagles -5.5 at Redskins                  Seahawks -5.5 at Panthers                Jaguars at Raiders -6.5            

Browns -2.5 at Cardinals              Vikings -2.5 at Chargers                      Rams PK at Cowboys

Falcons at 49ers -11                       Bills at Steelers -2

Monday

Colts at Saints -9

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders -6.5

This game is middle of the road between two AFC teams who both will likely be missing the playoffs this season. The Jaguars have been done for a long time now, while the Raiders three-game losing streak has taken them out of contention, despite looking promising not long ago. They need to win out and get a ton of help across the league, but they are technically still alive for the postseason.

The Jags are playing at possibly the lowest level of any team in the league as they haven’t put up a fight in weeks. Over the last five games, they’ve lost all five by at least 17 points, including last weeks 45-10 beatdown by the Chargers. They went back to Gardner Minshew at quarterback, but the Minshew Mania is long gone and their offense is highly ineffective at the moment. Defensively, they are at the bottom of the league defending the run and they have been gashed week after week by opposing running backs. Overall, this team is crawling to the finish line and have been a profitable fade for almost the entire second half of the season.

Be sure to check out other betting and NFL picks articles with Jazzraz!

On the Oakland side, they are struggling as well and need to find a way to end the losing streak. Having Josh Jacobs banged up and possibly unavailable is a major loss for an offense that was starting to build around him and the running game. They need more balance and every time they lean on Derek Carr, we see the worst version of their offense. Luckily for them, the Jaguars are struggling in all facets of the game so this should be a prime spot for a bounce back.

I hate to try and get into the mindset of a team, but it honestly looks like the Jaguars have quit on the season. We have seen five straight beatdowns and all were against middle-of-the-road teams. We will have to monitor the status of Jacobs, but even if he sits, I expect the Raiders to have success on the ground. With Oakland needing this game to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, I think they put forward a quality effort at home and add to the list of teams that have dominated the Jaguars in recent weeks.

My Pick: Raiders -6.5

In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia, bet NOW at DRAFTKINGS. 

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings travel west to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers in a game they cannot afford to lose. They are currently in the thick of the NFC playoff race and if they want any chance to catch the Packers for the division, they need to win this game. Furthermore, the Rams are right on their heels for the last wild card spot, so they have everything to play for. Last week, Minnesota took care of business at home against a bad Lions team, which was expected, but also necessary after dropping a game to Seattle a few weeks ago.

Minnesota sits at 9-4 on the year, but have leaned on home field advantage, going 6-0 at home while just 3-4 on the road. Kirk Cousins has been fantastic this year with a 24-4 touchdown to interception ratio, which is one of the best in the business. Limiting the turnovers and relying on Dalvin Cook and the running game is a winning formula, and I assume they will do the same in this spot. The Chargers haven’t had a good season and despite getting healthier on defense, it is still not a front I worry too much about. Cook is a little banged up, but he isn’t in danger of missing the game and the Vikings will attempt to run the ball regardless of who is in the backfield.

Make sure to head over and check out our AwesemoOdds weekly show Friday 12 p.m. EST that breaks down the upcoming weeks NFL picks and College schedules from a betting perspective 

The Chargers are out of the playoff race and they have to be considered one of the most disappointing teams in the league. They are 5-8 on the year, have no home field advantage and may be turning the page at quarterback with how poorly Philip Rivers has played. They have two quality backs with Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon, but the Vikings are seventh in DVOA stopping the run this season. There is no doubt the Chargers are talented at the skill positions, but it is still a matter of executing and trying to protect Rivers, which has been an issue this season. Rivers has 20 touchdowns, but 15 interceptions, which has been a primary reason for the lack of success.

Last week, we saw a glimpse of the talent the Chargers have as they hung 45 on Jacksonville in the 45-10 victory. I already discussed how bad Jacksonville is and I think that speaks louder than the potential of the Chargers finding something. It is true that having a guy like Derwin James back makes a difference, but against a balanced team like Minnesota, I don’t think it will be enough. This spread sits at -2.5, which is a great number and a spot I’m willing to lock in as a potential move to -3 would impact my desire to back Minnesota.

My Pick: Vikings -2.5

In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia, bet NOW at DRAFTKINGS. 

If you have any questions about your NFL picks find me in the Awesemo Premium slack chat or on Twitter @JazzrazDFS

Good Luck everyone!

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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