The NFL Betting Column with Ben Rasa: Week 8 NFL Odds, Lines and Picks ATS

Week 8 is up next which means we are at the midpoint of the NFL season. For the handful of teams who haven’t had their bye yet, this will end the first half of their schedule and the final push will begin. We have only two teams on byes this week so that means we have 15 spreads to look at and analyze for NFL Picks.

** When looking at lines for NFL picks, one of the important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available. Over time this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the markets**

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Week 8 Schedule

Thursday

Redskins at Vikings -16

Sunday    

Giants at Lions -7.5                      Buccaneers at Titans -2.5                          Chargers at Bears -4       

Jets at Jaguars -6                             Eagles at Bills PK                                     Bengals at Rams -13.5         

Raiders at Texans -6.5                 Panthers at Niners -5.5                              Broncos at Colts -6

Browns at Patriots +13                 Packers -4.5 at Chiefs                              Cardinals at Saints OTB*

Seahawks at Falcons OTB*

*OTB – Off the board

Monday

Dolphins at Steelers -14.5

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots -13 , O/U 46

Last time we saw Cleveland, it was against Seattle where they wasted a quick start and ultimately lost, dropping them to 2-4 on the season. They got a bye week to rest up and now get the absolute worst spot when you desperately need a win, as they travel to Foxboro to take on New England. The Browns are quickly falling out of contact with the Ravens, and if they drop to 2-5, a wildcard spot is going to be difficult without a massive stretch run.

When you are 2-4, you can point to a lot of issues, but Baker Mayfield has to be towards the top of the list. Certainly he isn’t getting the best protection, but he also has 11 interceptions already this season. The turnovers have killed Cleveland in multiple games and considering the Patriots defense is possibly historically good, that will really test this Browns offense.

On the Patriots side, things couldn’t be going much better as they are 7-0 and just embarrassed their division rival Jets with a 33-0 beatdown. So far this season, they’ve played the worst of the worst as the Bills are their only opponent to date with a winning record. They haven’t played any dynamic offense and that is the one thing we need to see before anointing this Patriots defense as a truly special unit.

I’m not saying New England isn’t a good team, but we still have a lot to learn about them due to the ridiculous string of weak opponents. They are almost invincible at home, but with a Browns team that is coming off a bye and has the talent to compete, I think this is a spot we see the Patriots get tested. Many of the opponents that they’ve faced didn’t have the capability to move the ball, whereas if the Browns can limit the turnovers, they have weapons that will cause problems for New England. Add in that the Patriots are banged up on the offensive line and at wide receiver and I will take the 13 points. Teams with Cleveland’s talent are hard to pass up when they get a lot of points, even against undefeated New England. You roll those dice every time when making NFL picks.

My Pick: Browns +13

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans -6.5, O/U 51.5

The Raiders sit at a respectable 3-3 on the year and at times, they’ve looked like a halfway decent team. The problem for them is they seem to be wearing down a bit and the defense is showing signs of breaking down. Last week, they allowed the Packers to do whatever they wanted on offense and Aaron Rodgers had one of his career-best outings.

Houston lost a tough AFC South matchup last week with the Colts and dropped to 4-3 on the season. We know how talented Deshaun Watson is and he has single-handily kept the Texans in some games. On the year, Watson has a healthy 13:5 touchdown/interception ratio and has another four touchdowns on the ground, so the Raiders will have their hands full stopping him.

This is once again picking on the Raiders defense who get no time to rest after Rodgers tore them apart last week. It is a tough spot, heading into Houston against an increasingly desperate Texans team. If Derek Carr is forced to keep up with Watson, it could be a long day for Oakland, especially if Tyrell Williams and/or Josh Jacobs are unable to go.

My Pick: Texans -6.5

** Make sure to head over and check out our AwesemoOdds weekly show Friday mornings 12 EST that breaks down the upcoming week’s NFL Picks and College schedules from a betting perspective **

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans -2.5, O/U 45.5

We have an NFC-AFC matchup here as the Buccaneers travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans. Tampa is coming off a bye and sits in the bottom of the NFC South at 2-4. Tennessee managed to win last week due to a miracle goalline stand against Melvin Gordon and the Chargers. This takes the Titans to 3-4 on the year and with the AFC South wide open, they are still in the mix if they can win this game.

Tampa is a Jekyll and Hyde team, and that makes it tough to make NFL picks week to week. That starts with their quarterback, Jameis Winston. He is always turnover prone, but he shows flashes of top-end play as we saw in one of the biggest upsets so far this year when he beat the Rams in Los Angeles. In that game, Winston only threw one pick to go with four touchdowns and for the most part, controlled the game. Fast forward a few weeks to London against Carolina and we see Winston with five interceptions and a lost fumble in a loss. With the Titans a strong run defense, it will once again fall on Winston this week and he needs to limit the turnovers.

The Titans made the move to Ryan Tannehill and honestly, so far so good. In his first start, Tannehill was 23-29 for 312 and a pair of touchdowns (and one interception) and looked like he had control of the offense. We know that the Titans want to control games on the ground, but having balance and keeping teams honest will go a long way. Tampa is currently a pass-funnel defense as they are the top-ranked rush defense in the league by DVOA, while they are 25th against the pass.

Skill position players like Corey Davis clearly looked like they were more of a threat with Tannehill and that is going to be needed against this Tampa team. If the Titans are able to grab a lead, they can force Winston into playing catch-up and that is where he is most susceptible to costly turnover flurries. I lean to Tennessee at home with this line still holding at 2.5, and I think Tannehill once again shows that he may be the man for this job going forward.

My Pick: Titans -2.5

If you have any questions on NFL picks, find me in the Awesemo Premium slack chat or on Twitter @JazzrazDFS

Good Luck everyone!

 

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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