NFL Conference Championship Preview

NFL Conference Championship Preview

Last week may have been the best 4 pack of games we’ve had in a while, but there is no doubt his Sunday is the best day of football in the entire year. We have two monster matchups that will decide the Super Bowl with the Rams going to the Nola to take on the Saints, and the Patriots off to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs. This article is going to breakdown each game and give some thoughts on both the DFS and Betting side of these two great matchups.

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Rams at Saints : Saints -3  O/U 56.5

Game Breakdown – These two teams faced off earlier in the year in the Superdome with the Saints winning a wild 45-35 shootout. In that game Michael Thomas went nuclear with 12/211/1 and it looked like Marcus Peters and the Rams secondary had absolutely no answers in terms of stopping him. On the Rams side Gurley was quiet with only 79 total yards and 1 TD and limiting him in the passing game I think is a key once again this week. We saw CJ Anderson bowling ball his way thru Dallas last week, but I seriously doubt he can do that against this Saints team in this spot. Finding ways to get Gurley in space is going to be huge, as putting it all on Goff to play catchup seems like a dangerous game. On the Saints side of the ball they have so many weapons its tough to gameplan on who to try and take away. Michael Thomas was great against the Eagles in that hard-fought W, and him and Kamara will be relied on heavily again here if they want to take down the NFC. Giving Brees quick outs to negate the pressure he may see straight up the middle from Donald and forcing the Rams to spread out seems to be how the Saints should once again attack. It will be interesting to see how both coaches adjust to what they saw in that first meeting and I would expect a few new wrinkles on both sides that may determine the outcome in this one.

DFS Thoughts – Both games have plenty of firepower so its not like one will have the majority of the plays coming from it while the other is a much less appealing spot. Goff to me is the interesting QB at 5.4k as he will be lower owned than the likes of Mahomes/Brees, but he has a lot more risk associated with him. Last week I was overweight and he wasn’t needed with the Anderson/Gurley combo just torching Dallas on the ground. I think that the Rams need Goff to have a big game if they are going to get a win inside the Superdome and I will certainly have a few Rams stacks targeting the aerial attack and then running it back with the top end Saints players.

Betting Leans – As I mentioned above the Saints come in as a 3 point home favorite with an O/U of 56.5. Not a ton of movement so far as the spread opened at -3.5 and the total at 57 so both holding pretty strong with only a few days until kickoff. These games are both very tough to breakdown as it is the 4 best teams playing so there are no big upsets to be had regardless of who ends up coming out. Like most games I believe whoever controls the line of scrimmage here is going to eventually move on and the way the Rams dismantled Dallas’ front 7 was impressive. I think they are able to do enough on the ground to give Goff good situations to throw in, and then can rely on that Donald led pass rush to generate some pressure against the Saints offense. Final Score Prediction – Rams 31 Saints 27

Patriots at Chiefs: Chiefs -3 O/U 55.5

Game Breakdown – Just like the Rams and Saints these are two teams who met in the regular season, and it was a wild one with the Patriots winning 43-40 in Foxboro. The “in Foxboro” is the most important part of that entire sentence as the Chiefs secured home field for this moment and they get the Patriots in Arrowhead this time which makes a huge difference. New England is 9-0 at home and 3-5 on the road so right there we see this importance of where this game is being played. Mahomes and the Chiefs avoided the blizzard last week and were able to do enough to cruise to a relatively easy win against Indy and Andrew Luck. It was the defense that really made the statement limiting the Colts to 13 points and 7 of those were on a punt block TD so they really did their part to ensure the W. The Patriots did whatever they wanted to against the Chargers and that game looked over basically from start to finish. Unlike New Orleans this game is going to be outdoors, but from what I’ve seen its not supposed to be overly cold or have any snow in the forecast making it a minimal factor for two cold weather teams. To me the key is how New England chooses to try and attack and if they can have success on the ground with Sony Michel. If they are able to run it will really allow the play action to take hold and that makes that offense very difficult to stop. For the Chiefs its can Mahomes not turn the ball over, something that he has proven me wrong on many times this year.

DFS Thoughts – Kelce and Gronk are the two premier TEs on the slate even though Kelce is in his own tier at 7100. If you don’t take either of them you are completely punting the position and that’s one of the first big decisions on this DFS 2 gamer slate. Both Brady and Mahomes make sense, and honestly all 4 QBs are in the conversation with the abilities these offenses have shown. James White had 15 receptions last week which is insane,  but that’s what we have seen time and time again when playoff time comes around so he makes a ton of sense again this week. With only 2 games and soft pricing you are able to take basically whoever you want if you have a few punt plays and that sets the table for more game theory to come into play. Don’t be afraid to leave some money on the table to be unique as going to the 50k total is going to give you limited options for teams and certainly set you up to be duped a ton.

Betting Leans – Another tough game with two evenly matched teams, which we saw the first go around in Foxboro. The spread has held at -3 the entire week, but the total has fallen a bit after opening at 58 which may be because of people fearing the cold / possible ugly weather. I don’t think the elements end up playing a big factor in this one, but I do see the logic for leaning under in this one. The Patriots may try and take a ton of time off the clock with each drive and the Chiefs defense has shown their ability lately to get stops when needed. Both offenses are going to have success here and there, but I don’t think we see another 43-40 shootout like we didn’t earlier in the year. Toss up game, but I give the lean to the home team think they can do just enough to get by New England and move onto the Super Bowl in a few weeks. Final Score Prediction – Chiefs 27 Patriots 23

** You can find all my shows throughout the week on our YouTube homepage at Stokastic_Com, which break down NFL, PGA and College sports from both a DFS and betting perspective **

Good Luck! – If you have any questions find me in the Awesemo.com premium slack chat or @JazzrazDFS on twitter.

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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