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BOOM vs. BUST: Top NFL Daily Fantasy Picks to Roster & Avoid for Week 14

Eric Lindquist

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Similar to the NBA Boom/Bust Tool before it, the NFL Boom/Bust Tool makes for one of the best and easiest-to-use tools at Awesemo.com. Developed with the help of Alex Baker himself, the Boom/Bust Tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Sunday’s main slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. By grouping players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom) or the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust), it is easy to compare every play on the main slate to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 14 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.

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Week 14 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom/Bust Top Plays

Top Quarterback to Boom: Taysom Hill

The oft-maligned goal-line touchdown vulture has a very different part to play for the Saints this Sunday. For a second consecutive week, Hill will line up behind center for Sean Payton’s offense, and that means massive fantasy potential against a Jets defense graded 28th in the NFL by PFF. And while 100-yard rushing games like he had last week are not expected to be the norm, there is no question his rushing ability is what elevates his floor to the slate-low 15% bust chance among all quarterbacks. So if Hill can find any sort of success through the air, there is a very real chance his 21.4% chance to boom — also tops at the position — will come to fruition.

Top Quarterback to Bust: Jimmy Garoppolo

There are technically five quarterbacks carrying lower boom scores than Garoppolo. But seeing as none of them carry more than 1% ownership, Garoppolo is the featured player to steer clear of at the position. If dynamic wideout Deebo Samuel can suit up for the 49ers on Sunday, perhaps Garoppolo’s outlook will change slightly. But with a $5,800 price tag on DraftKings that is more expensive than Cam Newton or the Hill, it would take a massive passing performance to outpace cheaper ground-game oriented quarterbacks. Hence his super-low 2.0% boom chance and middling 39.3% chance to bust make for a fade in this road spot against the Bengals.

Top Running Back to Boom: Austin Ekeler

It stands to reason that expensive players should have relatively high expectations to perform (hence why they are expensive in the first place). But even still, Ekeler blows away the running back position with a whopping 19.8% chance to boom this Sunday, even at his $8,300 salary on DraftKings. That is more than 6.5% more than No. 2 on the list (Saquon Barkley), making Ekeler a high-floor/high-ceiling option against an abysmally bad Giants defense surrendering 122.8 yards rushing per game (25th in NFL).


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Top Running Back to Bust: Ezekiel Elliott

In a timeshare that is starting to look eerily similar to the Browns’ Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt situation of the past two years, Elliott and Tony Pollard have been locked into a 60/40 split of the snaps since Week 3 this season. That makes both near impossible rosters at their current salaries and roles, especially Elliott at his irrational $7,300 tag on DraftKings. Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper are also back in the fray in the passing game, creating two more mouths to feed on the offensive side of the ball for the Cowboys. All of this together creates a 48% chance to bust for Elliott and just a 3.6% opportunity to boom at his salary, although his optimal appearance rate of 7.6% stops him from being a complete write-off on this slate.

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Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Mike Williams

With news that Keenan Allen is officially out for Sunday, Williams elevates from a lower-owned tournament dart to an unquestionably elite play in all formats. The dust has not settled on his ownership as of yet, but at $6,000 on DraftKings as a WR1 with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert throwing him the ball, expect Williams to be a major talking point leading up to lock. That sentiment is echoed by the Boom Bust tool, as Williams leads the position with a 20.9% chance to boom, along with a 24.1% optimal appearance rate. In other words, expect big things from Williams on Sunday.

Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Julio Jones

With Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown out for the season, the Titans are in desperate need of all the help they can get. But while a Jones return would certainly be an upgrade in talent from Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers, it might be hard to expect much in terms of snaps due to his chronic hamstring issues. And at $5,400 on DraftKings with so much mid-range wide receiver value, his measly 1.3% chance to boom has a lot of opportunity cost attached to it. So with a whopping 62.2% bust percentage on Sunday’s slate, the once-enticing Jones play is simply an afterthought.


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Take a look at our NFL depth charts, inactive player list and starting lineups. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. View our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL ownership rankings. We also have showdown projections and NFL showdown ownership projections.
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