The NBA Boom Bust Tool has been perhaps the most popular tool Awesemo has to offer for years. And with the help of the incredible team at Awesemo — including Alex Baker himself — the NFL Boom Bust Tool is now available for the 2021 NFL season. Identify the strength of players based on their probability of putting up an elite score (boom) and the odds of them failing to meet salary-based expectations (bust). Compare those numbers to their projected ownership, and easily identify which plays might be going over- or under-owned by the field. Let’s take a look at the top player to boom and most relevant player to bust at each core position for Week 2 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS lineups.
Week 2 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Top Quarterback to Boom: Tom Brady
There are somehow three quarterbacks tied with a 13.7% chance of booming in Awesemo’s projections this week: Tom Brady, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. With the other two sporting slightly higher bust odds, Brady wins the tiebreak with just a 21.4% chance at busting lineups. His Week 2 matchup against Atlanta should be equally as lucrative as it was Week 1 against Dallas, which, considering his 32.16 DraftKings points, does not bode well for the Falcons. And considering the Buccaneers only managed 52 yards on the ground in their opening game, expect Bruce Arians’ offense to remain equally as pass heavy going forward.
Top Quarterback to Bust: Jameis Winston
After an impressive Week 1 evisceration of the Packers defense, Jameis Winston enters Week 2 with the top odds to bust amongst the quarterback position, at 53.3%. More notable, however, is his just 0.7% chance to boom, making him a nearly impossible roster at his inflated DraftKings tag of $6,100. Perhaps Winston has moved on from his turnover-prone ways after a blemish-free opening debut, but time will tell. What is not up for debate is that five touchdown passes on just 148 yards passing is an outlier, so temper expectations for Winston in Week 2 against the Panthers.
Top Running Back to Boom: Chris Carson
While the ownership between Chris Carson and Najee Harris is nearly identical on DraftKings at 20.6% and 20.5%, respectively, Carson carries the slightly better boom score at 20.7%. With backup Rashad Penny on the shelf for Week 2, there should be no semblance of a No. 2 option for the Seahawks running game in the near future. And against a Titans team that surrendered 136 yards on the ground to a mediocre-at-best Cardinals rushing attack, expect big things from Carson and the Seahawks offense at home on Sunday.
Top Running Back to Bust: Derrick Henry
On the other side of the Seahawks game, Derrick Henry might be in a world of hurt should they fall behind like they did in Week 1. At $8,300 on DraftKings, there is little room for error in a PPR format for Henry, who has averaged just a single reception per game in his NFL career. That makes him almost entirely touchdown/100-yard-bonus dependent, which is reflected in the Boom Bust Tool with his 54.7% chance of busting in this spot. Those odds plummet to only 33.3% on FanDuel, making him a markedly better play on the blue site at $8,000.
Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Chris Godwin
Slightly narrowing out Cooper Kupp as the most-likely wide receiver to boom, Chris Godwin carries a 22.5% of finishing top two at the position for the week. After a dynamic season debut, with nine catches for 105 yards and a touchdown, more of the same could be on the horizon for Godwin against the noted pass funnel of the Falcons. While Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski can cut into his production on any given Sunday, Godwin projects as Brady’s No. 1 target for a second consecutive season and should be treated as such.
Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Adam Thielen
Adam Thielen projects as Awesemo’s most likely wide receiver of note to bust, at 58.8%. Sure, he turned 10 targets into nine catches and two touchdowns in Week 1 to drastically outperform expectations, but the presence of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook is bound to catch up to Thielen sooner rather than later. In all fairness, Thielen’s optimal lineup appearance rate of 2.8% is a little above his current ownership of 2.4%. But considering he is projected to sink lineups more than half the time, there are better floor/ceiling combinations to target.
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