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BOOM vs BUST: Top NFL Daily Fantasy Picks to Roster & Avoid for Week 3

Eric Lindquist

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DraftKings Tiers NFL DFS picks Week 4 free expert optimal lineup optimizer projections rankings Josh Allen Stefon Diggs

The NBA Boom Bust Tool has been perhaps the most popular tool Awesemo has to offer for years. And with the help of the incredible team at Awesemo — including Alex Baker himself — the NFL Boom Bust Tool is now available for the 2021 NFL season. Identify the strength of players based on their probability of putting up an elite score (boom) and the odds of them failing to meet salary-based expectations (bust). Compare those numbers to their projected ownership, and easily identify which plays might be going over- or under-owned by the field. Let’s take a look at the top player to boom and most relevant player to bust at each core position for Week 3 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS lineups.

Week 3 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades

Top Quarterback to Boom: Josh Allen

After a prolific 2020 season, Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense has sputtered out of the gate relative to expectations. With just 224.5 yards passing per game through two games as opposed to his 284 yards per game average in 2020, it is safe to say positive regression could be in store for the fourth-year quarterback soon. Awesemo’s projections tend to agreement with that assessment, as Allen carries a slate-leading 21.2% chance to boom at his position. And with ownership on DraftKings right around 7% with an optimal lineup percentage of 8.7%, he is also one of the more positively leveraged quarterbacks to target.

Top Quarterback to Bust: Jameis Winston

Copy-and-paste nearly everything this section covered about Winston heading into last Sunday. After a strong Week 1 performance that blew expectations for the Saints offense out of proportion for Week 2. They promptly disappointed, putting up just seven points against the Panthers while accumulating just 111 yards through the air. Looks like it could tough sledding once more for Winston against Bill Belichick’s defense that just embarrassed Jets rookie Zach Wilson, picking him off four times en route to lopsided win. That is why Winston carries the highest bust percentage on the slate at 53.2%, making him one of the easier quarterbacks to fade in any format.

Top Running Back to Boom: Dalvin Cook

Be aware the Cook has been downgraded to questionable for Sunday, which would make back-up Alexander Mattison one of the easier plug-and-play options on the slate should he get the start instead. But if Cook indeed suits up, do not hesitate to roster him in bulk as he boasts a massive 25.5% boom percentage, narrowly edging out Joe Mixon’s 24.2% chances to do the same. Stay on the lookout for any/all news regarding Cook’s health, but against a Seahawks attacked that just surrendered 182 yards and three touchdowns to Derrick Henry last week, he makes for an elite play if active.

Top Running Back to Bust: Ty’Son Williams

No doubt about it, the Lions are not a good football team. After giving up 33 points to the 49ers in Week 1 and 35 to the Packers in Week 2, a date with the Ravens on Sunday should yield some similar results. But with just 22 total rushes and 50% of the running back snaps through two weeks, targeting Ty’Son Williams to put up those points at $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel might be a bit foolish. That sentiment is echoed by the Boom Bust tool, as Williams carries just a 0.6% chance to boom while carrying a hefty 63.3% chance to bust. With Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman becoming increasingly acquainted with the offense, it is hard to see Williams paying off those salaries in his limited role.

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Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Cooper Kupp

This one should come as zero surprise to anyone, as Kupp has emerged as 2021’s breakout wide receiver. Through two weeks, Kupp has turned 21 targets into 16 catches, 271 yards and three touchdowns, averaging an unbelievable 33.3 DraftKings points per game. His rapport with Matthew Stafford has been evident, and the Boom Bust tool has taken note, making him the most likely receiver to break the slate again at 27.5%. His optimal lineup appearance rate (19.7%) is lower than his current ownership (24.7%), but he still carries massive upside despite the negative leverage.

Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Darius Slayton

Despite an 0-2 start for the Giants, the fantasy football community has taken note of a possible resurgence in the play of Daniel Jones. And against a Falcons defense that has been shredded for 775 yards of total offense through the first two weeks, the interest is understandably there to take some shots on Jones and company once more in Week 3. But if aiming to pair him with a wide receiver, Slayton is the bottom man on the totem pole in this offense as evidenced by his 55.1% chance to bust, one of the worst marks by a wideout gaining any sort of ownership (2.5%). With Sterling Shepard carrying 16.8% boom potential as opposed to Slayton’s 1.2% chance to do the same, making Shepard the featured pairing of any Jones stacks makes the most sense.


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Take a look at our NFL starting lineups, depth charts and inactives. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS news for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL DFS stacking.
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