Just like the NBA Boom Bust tool before it, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has been instrumental to the lineup building process amongst subscribers. Developed by the data team at Awesemo, including Alex Baker himself, this tool makes it simple to target under-utilized plays for Sunday’s upcoming main slate — as well highlighting which players are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust) and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions for Week 6 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool is imperative when constructing DFS NFL lineups today.
Week 6 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Top Quarterback to Boom: Lamar Jackson
Monday night was the Lamar Jackson show in Baltimore, as he threw for a franchise-record 442 yards in a come-from-behind victory against the Colts. He will now set his sights on an encore fantasy performance against a Chargers that has been hemorrhaging yards on the ground to the tune of 157.6 per game this season. That bodes well for Jackson, who sits atop the Boom Bust Tool with his 31% chance to boom in Week 6. Most staggering of all, however, might be his 24.4% optimal appearance rate on DraftKings despite only 13.9% ownership, making him perhaps the top leverage play of the year.
Top Quarterback to Bust: Aaron Rodgers
Similar to last week, Aaron Rodgers is sticking out as a quarterback to avoid. With just a 1.2% chance to boom and massive 56.4% odds to bust, absorbing most of Rodgers’ production via just rostering Davante Adams will once again be the optimal strategy. Plus, with so many other quarterbacks that add value to their box scores by way of the running game, Rodgers and his 1.6 yards rushing per game are laughable in comparison. In other words, opt to go any other route at the position on Sunday.
Top Running Back to Boom: Kareem Hunt
With news Friday afternoon that Nick Chubb would miss the Browns’ Week 6 game against the Cardinals, Kareem Hunt vaulted to the very top of the Boom Bust Tool. His ownership will most likely be out of control come Sunday, but that is what tends to happen when a split backfield of a run-first football team becomes a one-man show. With a 41.3% chance to boom on Sunday — along with an absurdly low 4% chance to bust — Hunt at $6,200 on DraftKings is the most likely candidate to smash the slate. And even at his less advantageous salary of $7,400 on FanDuel, Hunt’s 32.3% boom chance tops the board.
Top Running Back to Bust: Dalvin Cook
After a week on the shelf, Dalvin Cook returns to a Vikings team coming off a dramatic last-second win against the Lions in Week 5. However, with the limited nature of Cook in Week 4 in a loss to the Browns at home, the Awesemo tools and fantasy owners alike are feeling bearish to reload on him despite a decreased price point. In fact, despite a $7,700 tag on DraftKings, Cook carries a hefty 55.2% chance to bust at that number. His optimal appearance rate is still 7.8%, so he may not be a complete write-off. But should he garner more attention than his 9.6% projected ownership before Sunday, being light in a road matchup against a much-improved Panthers defense could be the move.
Top Wide Receiver to Boom: Davante Adams
Adams is yet again a fantastic play on Sunday. After topping the Boom Bust Tool in Week 5 and promptly erupting for 40.6 DraftKings points, Adams sets up yet again as a massive boom candidate. His 18.9% boom chances on DraftKings and 24.5% odds on FanDuel are in spite of massive salaries across the industry, making him a high-floor/high-ceiling option in Sunday’s road matchup against the Bears. With double-digit targets in three consecutive outings, the Rodgers/Adams connection looks to be back on track after some early-season disappointment.
Top Wide Receiver to Bust: Mike Williams
Despite the Boom Bust Tool‘s disdain for Mike Williams on a weekly basis, Williams continues to put up massive fantasy scores in his new role under first-year offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Still, despite elite quarterback play from Justin Herbert, the existence of Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the offense is bound to mute Williams’ production over a larger sample size. With his tag elevated all the way to $8,100 on DraftKings, Williams boasts just a 5.1% chance of booming, with gigantic 57.3% odds at busting. So while the ceiling can still be there, expect some diminished returns on his heightened salaries in future weeks.
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