The NFL Boom Bust Tool is a great way to identify the best and worst plays on any given slate by labeling the players most likely to succeed and fail relative to their salaries. With that in mind, here are the top players to boom and bust at quarterback, running back and wide receiver for Week 12 NFL daily fantasy contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Week 12 NFL Daily Fantasy: Boom Bust Top Plays & Fades
Boom: Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans WR
DraftKings – $5,800, 17.2% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,500, 14.7% Ownership
Cooks has been a target vacuum the entire 2021 season seeing the fifth-highest target share in the NFL at 28.5%. His air share (42.2%) is the third highest and has led to 539 (9th) completed air yards. The Texans will face a Jets defense that has allowed the most points (32.0), pass yards (282.2), and total yards (428.7) per game while their 8.0 opponent yards per pass attempt has climbed to a disastrous 9.7 over the last three games, each the worst in the league. Over the past four weeks, Houston’s offensive line has limited the breakout ability of Cooks but with the Jets’ pass rush forcing a sack rate of 3.16% over the past three games should not cause too much concern. New York currently ranks 26th in red zone points allowed the wide receiver position, an area where Cooks has seen 20.6% of Houston’s targets.
Boom: Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles RB
DraftKings – $5,100, 9.2% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,100, 9.4% Ownership
Returning from his three-game absence to lead the Eagles’ backfield in snaps, touches, and production, Sanders enters Week 12 as the unquestioned lead back after Jordan Howard was ruled out. Philadelphia has averaged a league-leading 42.7 rush attempts per game over the last three weeks and Howard had been pacing the backfield prior to Sanders’ return. The New York Giants have allowed 119.7 rush yards per game and 28 DraftKings points to the running backs so far this year, struggling to defend the position in both the run and the pass. Sanders has of the best leverage scores on the slate for both platforms but maximizes value on DraftKings with a score of 13.1%, the best on the slate. Sanders did struggle to hold on to the ball last week (fumbling twice, losing one) which is a cause for concern, however, at such a low price point and ownership presents too much opportunity entering a plus matchup.
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Boom: Houston Texans Defense
DraftKings – $2,300, 11.7% Ownership | FanDuel – $4,900, 4.3% Ownership
New York will welcome back Zach Wilson this week, but Houston should be the team that is most excited about the rookie first-rounder’s return. Of the four quarterbacks that the Jets have deployed this year, Wilson has been the kindest to opposing defenses. His completion percentage (57.5), QB rating (63.5), yards per pass attempt (6.5), sacks (3.2 per game), and turnovers (1.5 per game) are the worst at his position on the Jets roster. In Wilson’s six NFL starts opposing defenses have averaged 11.2 fantasy points while posting 19-point performances twice. Houston’s defense has been much improved in the month of November, allowing 15 points per game while forcing six sacks, six interceptions, and five fumbles while recovering two over the past two games. The Texans defense enters Week 12 with the best leverage score at the position and with a game featuring the third-lowest game total (44.5) on the slate it makes sense to target the favorites.
Bust: Mike Evans – Tampa Bay WR
DraftKings – $7,200, 8.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,500, 12.2% Ownership
The biggest reason to predict a bust game from Evans is his matchup with Xavier Rhodes. On the season, Rhodes has allowed only three touchdowns and has yet to allow more than 79 yards. On average, he allows 2.6 receptions for 37.7 yards per game. Evans is coming off a six-catch performance that resulted in 73 yards and a touchdown, taking advantage of the Giants man-coverage. The Colts run less man than most teams, with defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus preferring Cover 3 as his base and sitting back in quarters coverage on most third downs. With a higher price point and decent ownership, Evans bust score of 48.6 (DK) and 38.2 (FD) is too high to reason with having better and safer options at the position on the slate.
Bust: Melvin Gordon – Denver Broncos RB
DraftKings – $5,300, 5.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,300, 5.8% Ownership
In Week 11 versus the Philadelphia Eagles, Gordon saw fewer snaps than Javonte Williams, his rookie running mate, for the first time this season. Is this the beginning of the end for Gordon or just a result of the Broncos trailing and Gordon losing a fumble? On the season, Gordon has lost two fumbles and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The opportunity has been there all season for the former Wisconsin running back but his -18.1 expected points added ranks 128th in the league. His boom score sits at 1.8% in DraftKings and 1.7% in FanDuel while he carries a bust score of over 44.8% on both platforms. In a plus matchup versus the run funneling Los Angeles Chargers who allow 145.1 rush yards per game (last), this may come as a surprise, but it is potentially foreshadowing a bust performance for Gordon.
Bust: Nyheim Hines – Indianapolis Colts RB
DraftKings – $4,000, 2.2% Ownership | FanDuel – $5,200, 2.1% Ownership
Hines has seen his snap share decline in three consecutive weeks. Matching up against a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense this week does not make things any easier on the limited opportunity. In the past two games, Hines has handled only eight touches, playing only 31 total snaps. He has produced less than 6.4 points in eight-of-11 games thus far and all three double-digit performances came against struggling run defenses. Tampa Bay is allowing only 22.2 fantasy points (sixth-least) to the running back position per game this season and Jonathan Taylor has seen over 80% of the Colts’ snaps in consecutive weeks offers little opportunity for Hines.
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