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Bills vs. Titans Week 6 Monday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks

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Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 6 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 6 Bills vs. Titans Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

This Monday Night Showdown slate features a marquee matchup between two playoff contenders vying for conference supremacy. Winners of four straight and fresh off an 18-point thumping of the Chiefs, the Bills are riding high as one of the early favorites to win the AFC, but they now face a Tennessee squad with high aspirations. Despite a rocky start to the season that has included an inexplicable loss to the Jets, the Titans are 3-2 and alone atop the AFC South and should have at least one superstar receiver back in the fold. The Titans will need all the offensive firepower they have this Monday because Buffalo will bring theirs; the Bills have scored 35-plus points in four straight games and scored 40-plus in two of their last three.

The Buffalo Wide Receivers Have Slate-Breaking Ceilings

The Bills offense has been as prolific as ever during their four-game win streak, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in points scored per play. They are above average in nearly every offensive statistical category despite their script-adjusted pass rate going down from last season. Stefon Diggs, despite not having a signature ceiling game this season, still leads the team by a wide margin in weighted opportunity and has three games with 10-plus targets this season. Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool gives Diggs the second-highest probability of being the optimal Captain on DraftKings and the fourth highest on FanDuel. The auxiliary duo of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, who has multiple multi-touchdown games this season, also seeing plenty of looks, ranking top 15 in the NFL in expected points per game. On DraftKings Beasley looks like an excellent play as a tournament Captain, with the fourth-highest optimal Captain probability. On FanDuel Sanders looks a bit more appealing than Beasley simply based on salary considerations.

Derrick Henry Eats Teams’ Souls

Henry has been a one-man wrecking crew this season, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in carries, second in opportunity share and red-zone touches, and first in total touchdowns. His 441 yards created and 75 evaded tackles also rank first among all players, and he has done it in spite of facing the second-most stacked boxes (eight-plus linemen and linebackers). He is the best in the world at his position right now, and the Awesemo projections do not suggest the Buffalo defense, despite their No. 1 run DVOA, will have a chance to completely shut down Henry in this matchup. With 25 opportunities a virtual lock, Henry is a must-play in cash games; he has the third-highest optimal Captain probability on DraftKings and the second highest on FanDuel.

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Do Not Forget About the Kickers

In this likely high-total game that features two quality offenses and at least one strong defense, the possibility of drives stalling in field goal range is increased, making both Tyler Bass and Randy Bullock quality value plays at their reduced salaries on DraftKings. Particularly in cash games, the kickers make for excellent Flex options. And while Bass carries the higher projection, the volatility of the position’s scoring means that either kicker is equally viable, especially with so many points expected from both squads.

Zack Moss Is the More Valuable Bills Running Back

Since Week 2, Moss has out-snapped Devin Singletary 53% to 45%, has doubled the number of red-zone attempts and has three times the number of carries inside the 10. Josh Allen’s run rate is also a bit lower than past seasons, as Allen has only accounted for 19% of the team’s carries, down from 25% a year ago. Moss has two more targets than Singletary during the Bills’ four-game win streak. Despite a significant salary difference between the two players, $1,500 on FanDuel and $2,400 on DraftKings, Moss is by far the preferred play, especially on FanDuel where the salaries are similar. Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool gives Moss a 23% probability of being in the optimal FanDuel lineup, eighth best among all players.

Julio Jones and A.J. Brown: Meh Value, Fantastic Upside

While Jones and Brown has not been on the field together since Week 3 and Brown once again questionable, the Titans receivers are a thinner play than some might think. Brown did not get a full snap share in Week 4, running just 22 routes, but he still managed six targets and caught three for 38 yards. Brown has yet to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game this season, and even in this high-total matchup, he could have his usage limited due to injury concerns. Jones seems to be the healthier of the two at this moment, but he has struggled to stay on the field for much of the past two seasons. Luckily, most fantasy gamers are reading things the same way, which has drastically limited both players’ expected Captain ownership. Jones or Brown will be placed in the Captain spot by around 10% of the field, making them excellent tournament leverage plays in this offense-friendly matchup. Awesemo projections prefer Brown to Jones by a little over 1 DraftKings point.

The Bottom Line

Though this game could easily be a preview of a future playoff matchup, there is little chance of this game turning into an offense-less slog. With Tennessee ranked in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per carry, yards allowed per pass, points allowed per play and schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, there is almost no way the Buffalo offense will not show up in a major way. Allen is the chalk Captain choice and should have every opportunity to produce, and Tennessee may ultimately have no answer whatsoever for Diggs. With the Bills likely to score, expect Tennessee to push the tempo while relying heavily on Henry and the running game. They will likely use Henry as a means of keeping the Bills off the field, which means the game environment relies heavily on the play of the Bills run defense. If they are truly elite, Tennessee will be forced to pass, which should increase opportunities for the Titans pass catchers and spike the probability of this game shooting out.

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Week 6 Monday Night Football Prediction: Bills 28, Titans 20


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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football picks for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL stacks. Take a look at our inactive player list, depth charts for NFL games and NFL starting lineups. View our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings and our FanDuel NFL ownership rankings. We also have NFL showdown projections and NFL showdown ownership projections.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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