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Giants vs. Buccaneers Week 11 Monday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown and NFL DFS Picks




Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 11 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 11 Giants vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 11 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The Giants are 3-6, last place in the NFC East, and have to travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, who are looking to get back on track themselves after a disappointing, turnover-filled Week 10 loss to Washington. Tom Brady was far from his typically efficient self last week, and now he gets to face a Giants defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed per play and second in yards allowed per pass attempt over their last three games. Nonetheless, the Buccaneers’ implied total of 31 points, 11.5 points greater than New York’s 19.5, indicates that Brady and his talented receiving corps should not have any issues scoring on this Giants secondary. If Daniel Jones and the Giants can keep pace, this could be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Getting star running back Saquon Barkley back should be a huge boost and only adds to the shootout potential.

Saquon Barkley ($7,800 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel)

Barkley returns to the Giants lineup in Week 11 after a sprained ankle kept him out of the lineup since early in Week 5. Barkley, plagued by injuries over the last two seasons, was finally coming back into his own before getting hurt, averaging 110 yards from scrimmage on 21 opportunities in Weeks 3 and 4. However, he went down early the next week. Encouragingly, Barkley has been hyper-efficient on a per-touch basis this season, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards created per touch. His 41.2% evaded tackles per touch rank sixth among all running backs, which means that even against Tampa Bay’s No. 2-ranked run defense by yards allowed per carry, Barkley still has an outside chance of producing a ceiling score. The Top Plays Tool is extremely bearish on Barkley, however, giving him somewhere between 2% and 3% chance of being the optimal Captain or MVP play, depending on platform, which comes in well below his projected ownership.

Chris Godwin ($9,400 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel)

Godwin did not show many signs of being hobbled by a lower-leg injury that nearly kept him out last Sunday’s matchup, as he played on 95.7% of the Buccaneers snaps, catching seven of his eight targets for 57 yards. While the production was not quite on the level it had been the previous two weeks, where he had over 110 yards receiving and a score in back-to-back games, Godwin should have plenty of chances for big plays against a defense preoccupied by teammate Mike Evans ($10,200 DraftKings/$13,000 FanDuel) and the likely return of Rob Gronkowski ($6,200 DraftKings/10,000 FanDuel). Despite being just one part of the Buccaneers spread-out passing attack, Godwin’s 78 targets rank 14th in the NFL, and he is ninth in expected points added this season. With a positive leverage score on in Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool for both DraftKings and FanDuel, Godwin looks like one of the strongest plays on the slate.

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Kadarius Toney ($6,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

It has been a quiet few weeks for Toney, as he has played on less than 62% of the team’s snaps in four straight games and has not seen more than five targets in a single contest since his 13-target, 10-reception breakout game against Dallas in Week 5. Toney still looks excellent in many advanced metrics, including a top-20 ranking in catch rate and yards per route run. However, Toney’s 13.1% target share ranks 75th among all wideouts, and his 8.1 PPR fantasy points per game is outside the top 60 at his position. In a single-game slate, where Daniel Jones ($9,600 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) will almost certainly be asked to push the tempo, Toney could finally get back to double-digit targets. Awesemo projects Toney for the most DraftKings points of any player on the Giants.

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Kenny Golladay ($7,000 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

Golladay signed the largest contract of any free agent wide receiver last offseason but has wasted away as a secondary option in the Giants’ anemic offense for most of the season. Golladay began the season averaging a modest 6.5 targets per game over his first four starts, but he has not been healthy since. Golladay is outside the top 60 wide receivers in target share, target accuracy rating, catch rate, passer rating when targeted and fantasy points per game. The metrics indicate that throwing to Golladay is typically a minus-EV move for the Giants offense. Golladay ranks 51st in expected points added and is worst value plays on the slate according to Awesemo’s projections. At the very least, his projected ownership is low enough that he is not a complete stay-away option in tournaments, though he remains a speculative, contrarian play at best. The Top Plays Tool prefers Darius Slayton ($3,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), who has seen a nearly identical target share to Golladay and has t a significantly lower salary. Slayton quietly ranks 14th in the NFL in yards per reception this season.

Tom Brady ($11,200 DraftKings/$17,000 FanDuel)

To the surprise of no one, Brady has the highest projection of any player on this slate. In fact, Brady’s 22.16-point FanDuel projection has nearly a full 4-point lead over the next-closest player (Jones) and soars above the top-projected Flex player (Leonard Fournette) by 6 points. While his Week 10 against Washington may have been one to forget, Brady still ranks fourth in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, third in Total QBR and second in true passer rating and fantasy points per game. Most importantly, the Buccaneers offensive line ranks first in the NFL in protection rate, keeping Brady upright an absurdly high 90.7% of the time. With a nearly full arsenal of receivers back in the lineup (save for Antonio Brown), Brady is a near lock for 20 fantasy points on all platforms. He is a particularly excellent tournament option on DraftKings, where his high salary is keeping his projected ownership quite low.

The Bottom Line

While Washington’s surprise victory over the Buccaneers last weekend proved that anything is possible on a one-game slate, these teams are not even close to evenly matched. Poised to make yet another Super Bowl run, Tampa Bay will likely come out firing with Brady attempting to right the wrongs of last week. The Giants will have their work cut out for them against a Buccaneers defense that has struggled a bit of late but remains elite at stopping the run; Tampa has been top 10 in yards allowed per pass attempt all season long. The Giants could keep this game closer than expected, especially if their defense is able to consistently knock Brady off of his spot, but the Buccaneers are more likely to beat the Giants into submission.

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Week 11 Monday Night Football Prediction: Buccaneers 33, Giants 17.

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We also have NFL showdown projections and single-game ownership projections. Take a look at our depth charts, inactive player list and NFL line-ups. View our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL ownership rankings. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL stats for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL stacks.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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