NFL DFS Picks & Week 13 MNF Showdown Breakdown DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 13 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let us dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 13 Patriots vs. Bills Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 13 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The Patriots head to snowy, windy Buffalo to take on the Bills in a battle for supremacy in the suddenly hotly contested AFC East. After stumbling against the Colts in Week 12, the Bills returned to form on Thanksgiving night against the Saints 31-6. Meanwhile, after a slow 2-4 start, the Patriots are winners of six straight games, including quality wins against the Chargers, Browns and Titans, but they still find themselves as 2.5-point road favorites despite a one-game divisional lead. With projected sustained winds at over 20 mph this evening, expect both teams to struggle moving the ball through the air, which could give the run-oriented Patriots a slight advantage against the typically pass-happy Bills. Unsurprisingly, the total of this game has plummeted to 41 due to weather, which fantasy gamers absolutely need to take into consideration as they build lineups.

Top NFL DFS Options

Even with the major weather concerns, it’s still worth spending up to get Josh Allen ($11,200 DraftKings/$17,500 FanDuel) in tonight’s contest, even if he projects to be the highest-rostered player on the slate. Besides what he can accomplish as a passer, ranking third in composite efficiency (a blend of EPA per play and completion rate over expectation), Allen has earned nearly a quarter of the team’s rushing attempts this season. Allen’s 33% of team rushes inside the 10-yard lane ranks fifth among all quarterbacks this season. Surprisingly, Awesemo remains quite bullish on Stefon Diggs ($10,600 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel), who is one of just nine receivers to earn a 25% target share and have over 100 targets at this point in the season. Diggs’ 89.7 air yards per game rank 15th among wideouts and is by far the largest average air yards of any player in this game. Even Cole Beasley ($7,800 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) seems like a strong option, with Allen likely leaning on short-area passes to move the sticks in this contest.

Beasley is looking like a great option in showdown contests tonight, according to the Awesemo NFL lineup optimizer. Check out all of Awesemo’s free NFL DFS picks in the DraftKings NFL cheat sheet and FanDuel NFL cheat sheet.

Mac Jones ($10,000 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) is more than viable but looks to be a distant third in Awesemo’s value rankings among top-projected players. Jones has been highly efficient over his last six starts and has begun to push New England’s pace and pass-rate over the last few weeks, but the Patriots still rank around league-average in game script adjusted rush rate and game-script adjusted pace. The New England offense tends to spread the ball around to many different rushers and receivers, but Jakobi Meyers ($7,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) stands out for his modest salary on DraftKings. Meyers has a propensity for having big games without finding the end zone, having done so just once in his entire career. But Meyers grades out as the best value play of all the Patriots’ players and projects for over 11 points on DraftKings’ full-PPR platform. Damien Harris ($9,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) seems like a decent play on paper as the lead back in a run-heavy offense, but Harris has only seen 44% of the team’s rushing attempts since Week 8 and has an extremely slim 14 to 11 lead in red-zone carries over Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel) during that span. Considering Harris is a complete non-factor in the passing attack, Harris seems like a dubious, touchdown-dependent pick.

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Volatile, Salary-Saving Plays

In Awesemo’s projections and value rankings stars and scrubs appears to be optimal lineup-building approach for this contest. Players who have out-performed expectations in recent weeks on both offenses such as Hunter Henry ($5,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) and Matt Breida ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) all seem like ho-hum value plays, priced up because of their touchdowns in recent showdown contests. Instead, Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool suggests stacking up top options and mixing in players with salaries below $1,500 on DraftKings or $7,000 on FanDuel. Isaiah McKenzie ($200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has earned just three targets since Week 10 but has played on 20% of team snaps. If he finds the end zone, he will almost certainly be in the optimal lineup. Gabriel Davis ($1,200 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is tied for with Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) over their last three games, making Davis the immensely stronger value play. Dawson Knox ($5,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) has averaged 4.7 targets per game since returning from injury and looks like a strong large-field tournament option.

On the New England side, N’Keal Harry ($200 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) continues to waste away at the bottom of the Patriots’ depth chart but has played on 40% of snaps since Week 10. Though he has seen a total of three targets, he has earned over 6% of the team’s air yards and has the highest depth of target on the team during that span. Nelson Agholor ($3,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is the salary-saving sweet spot for fantasy gamers, as he has appears in the optimal lineup both as a Captain play or Flex play more often than his current projected ownership, making him a top leverage option in a crowded New England passing attack. Those who cannot quite fit Agholor should not stress too much about moving down to Jonnu Smith ($2,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel), who is earning over 10% of targets and 13% of air yards since being a healthy scratch in Week 10.

The Bottom Line

While the loss of Tre’Davious White is something no defense can fully overcome, the Bills enter their toughest stretch of the season with a healthy offensive corps and a defense full of playmakers at every level. The Bills will need to play nearly impeccable football in order to maintain their spot in the AFC standings. Jones may not have to throw as much as many other NFL quarterbacks, but he has been lethally efficient on a per-play basis, making him more than viable at a steep salary discount compared to Allen. Large-field tournament players are welcome to build lineups for the small likelihood of a shootout, but with wind and weather in mind, most fantasy gamers should prioritize both squad’s top rushing options, kickers and defenses. This has all the makings of a physical, low-scoring battle in Buffalo.

Week 13 Monday Night Football Prediction: Bills 20, Patriots, 19

Check out OddsShopper when making your NFL betting picks tonight, where you can find game totals, against the spread picks and player props in less than 30 seconds.

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].