NFL DFS Picks & Week 10 MNF Showdown Breakdown DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 10 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let us dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 10 Rams vs. 49ers Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 10 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The Rams head north to face the division rival 49ers and have a chance to tie the Cardinals for the division lead. The 49ers have a 17-point differential on the season and rank outside the top 10 in defensive and offensive efficiency. They are surprisingly just 3.5-point underdogs in what looks like an easy victory on paper for Rams. Los Angeles is top 10 in the NFL in EPA per play and in defensive EPA allowed per play. Unsurprisingly, the Awesemo sports betting model indicates that Los Angeles should be favored by a point more than the current Vegas line implies. Though the Rams are a mediocre bet, keep that expected spread in mind tonight.

Losing Robert Woods Is No Small Loss for Los Angeles

Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice on Friday afternoon, the same day the team announced they were bringing in free agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., swiftly turning that signing from a luxury to a necessity. Woods may have had a slow start to the season in terms of production in the passing game, but since Week 4 he scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the Rams’ six games. Moreover, Woods’ PFF blocking grade was seventh highest among wide receivers. Awesemo’s projections for Darrell Henderson Jr. and Sony Michel have adjusted accordingly. Even against the 49ers’ middling defense, Henderson and Michel have a combined 5% chance of being the optimal MVP play on FanDuel, a platform that typically favors running backs. Those chances are even lower on DraftKings.

Cooper Kupp Is Still a Slate-Breaker in Waiting

Kupp kept on humming in Week 9, with 11 receptions for 95 yards on 13 targets. Kupp now has seen double-digit targets in eight of nine of his games this season after earning that many looks just three times all of last year. In the week he fell short of that level of opportunity, with nine targets. Kupp is first in the NFL in targets, receptions, yards, red-zone targets, touchdowns and fantasy points per route run. He is a no-brainer Captain play on DraftKings, where he appears as the optimal Captain in 20% of simulations and appears in the optimal lineup over 80% of the time. His numbers are nearly as impressive on FanDuel, though his $16,000 is steep. He still has a positive leverage score on both sites according to Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool.

Kupp has solidified himself as a top option week in and week out, but especially so for a Showdown slate. After running some of the optimal lineups in Awesemo’s NFL DFS lineup optimizer, Kupp is popping off the page as one of the best Captain, MVP and Superstar options. Check out the rest of Awesemo’s free NFL DFS picks tonight in the DraftKings NFL cheat sheet and FanDuel NFL cheat sheet.

Tyler Higbee Likely Will See More Looks

While most fantasy gamers take shots on the Rams receiver corps as a replacement for Woods, Awesemo’s projections indicate it might be more advantageous to instead look at tight end Tyler Higbee. Higbee has played on 95% or more of the Rams’ snaps, including a 97% snap share against Tennessee in Week 9. He has seen 21 targets over his last three games and has at least five receptions in three of his last four. He is outside the top 50 at his position in PFF’s run-blocking grade, but Higbee is a tight end in label only, as he has participated on 79% of the Rams’ routes this season, sixth highest among tight ends. With over a 30% chance of being in the optimal lineup on DraftKings, Higbee looks like a high-floor option and a strong Flex play. On FanDuel he has the highest leverage score of any player on either team, though on DraftKings, Awesemo’s tools indicate the salary reduction to Van Jefferson is worthwhile. Jefferson has 20 targets in the last three games, and both make for strong tournament options on both sites. Higbee is a solid stacking option with Matthew Stafford as well.

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It Does Not Look Like a Night to Fade the 49ers’ Top Weapons

Deebo Samuel is in the midst of a third-year breakout, earning nine or more targets in seven of San Francisco’s eight games. Even in Awesemo’s simulations, Samuel appears as the optimal Captain play over 14% of the time on both DraftKings and FanDuel, by the far the highest probability among all 49ers players. And even though Awesemo’s ownership projections indicate Samuel is going to be extremely popular on all platforms, he has the top leverage score on DraftKings. With a potential shootout game and a solid target floor, Samuel projects out just slightly better than teammate George Kittle, who caught six passes for 101 yards and a touchdown in his return last week. He too has a positive leverage score on both DraftKings and FanDuel, a clear indicator that betting on 49ers passing options as leverage is a strong strategy. Even running back Eli Mitchell has a strong ceiling game in his range of outcomes and has a positive leverage score in the Top Plays Tool.

The Bottom Line

The Rams’ high-octane offense tends to force opposing offenses into a fast-paced, past-first approach. And while that is a far cry from what occurred in the Rams’ Week 9 game against the Titans, that is still the most likely game flow for this game. Betting on the opposing passing attacks while sprinkling in exposure to the running backs at Flex positions seems like the best strategy. While anything can happen in a one game slate, the probability of this being a slow, low-scoring game is quite low, as do the chance of a 49ers upset.

Week 10 Monday Night Football Prediction: Rams 34, 49ers 18

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].