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Week 14 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups & Best NFL Player Props Picks




The Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season. The column will break down key matchups for the most important players each week to provide tips for NFL DFS, player prop bettors and season-long fantasy football setting lineups on Yahoo, ESPN, Sleeper and CBS. Let us dive into the all the NFL DFS tips matchups and daily fantasy football lineup decisions.

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Week 14 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups & NFL Player Props

Quarterback: Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson has been anything but his typically efficient self in the four weeks since he returned from finger surgery. He has thrown for less than 8 yards per attempt twice already, something he had done just once all season prior to the injury, and Wilson has now thrown for fewer than 250 yards in six straight starts. Moreover, Wilson is no longer adding much of anything as a rusher, as his highest rushing yardage this season has been 32 yards, which happened to be the same week he passed for a paltry 4 yards per attempt. At the very least, Wilson continues to take deep shots, still ranking second in the NFL air yards per attempt, and he seems to have begun to synchronize back up with receiver Tyler Lockett in recent weeks. PlayerProfiler ranks the Seahawks’ receiving corps fourth best in the NFL in support cast efficiency grade, which means that this week against the Texans, who rank bottom 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt, Wilson and company once again have a strong chance to produce a ceiling game in this plus-matchup. The props tool adds a boost of confidence as well, as over 239.5 yards passing, Wilson’s current prop line, has an expected win percentage of nearly 80%. This looks like a smash spot for the struggling Seahawks.

Quarterback: Taysom Hill

The books continue to underestimate Taysom Hills upside as a passer. Hill has averaged over 260 yards passing per game in the five games in which he is thrown 20 or more passes since the beginning of last season. With so many within the football world clamoring about Hill’s rushing upside, it seems that Hill’s passing props have not fully adjusted for Hill’s gunslinger attitude, especially when it comes to chucking the ball deep when playing from behind. Even in a blowout effort last week, where he threw four interceptions, Hill still managed 284 yards passing and now has a significantly easier matchup, not to mention a significantly lower yards passing prop line. The Jets are more exploitable via the ground game than through the air, but they are exploitable absolutely everywhere, ranking dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterback, running backs and opposing receivers and tight ends. Hill is projected for 226.1 yards passing this Sunday, which is conservative, but it is still 16% higher than Hill’s 191.5 yards passing prop line. Hill reaches that mark successfully in 75% of Awesemo’s latest simulations.

Running Back: Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams looked like an ideal free square DFS running back in Week 13. With D’Andre Swift sidelined with a shoulder injury, many expected Williams to inherit a large majority of Swift’s workload on the ground and through the air, but only half of that turned out to be true. Williams ultimately received 70% of the running back carries against the Vikings last Sunday, which is more than Swift’s 56.7% average share of running back attempts this season. But Williams saw nearly no work in the passing game, ranking seventh on the Lions’ target totem-pole with just one total look. The Lions, somewhat surprisingly, featured Godwin Igwebuike more than Williams in the passing attack, and even rookie Jermar Jefferson saw as many targets on just an 11.1% snap share. The Lions head to Denver this weekend to take on the Broncos, who have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking top five in points allowed per play and in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses. It should not come as shock that the Awesemo projections are significantly less bullish on Williams this week than they were a week ago. In a tough matchup, and splitting the workload with two other players in the Detroit backfield, it looks like under 60.5 yards rushing and under 9.5 yards receiving are both solid bets this weekend against the Broncos. Awesemo’s projections indicate he will go under both yardage totals in nearly two-thirds of simulations.

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Update: Williams has been placed on the COVID-19 list and is ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Broncos.

Running Back: Kareem Hunt

Hunt returned to the Cleveland backfield prior to the team’s Week 13 bye, ultimately earning a modest seven carries and one target on a middling 38.3% snap share. Clearly still hampered by the calf injury that placed him on injured reserve, Cleveland’s bye week could not have come at a more opportune time for the Browns’ backup running back, and in Week 14, with an additional two weeks of rest under his belt, Hunt could see a solid boost in snap share and opportunity share. Hunt has not been hyper-involved in the Cleveland passing attack, ranking fourth among all active Browns’ players in targets share within the rush-first Cleveland offense, but against Baltimore, who will likely sell out to shut down starting running back Nick Chubb, it could be advantageous to bet on Hunt in both DFS tournaments and in the props market. Hunt’s modest salary, particularly on FanDuel, allows him to slide in as a solid contrarian tournament piece in a game that has more shootout potential than the public believes since these two squads played an ugly 16-10 game less than two weeks ago. The Player Props Tool the over on Hunt’s yards rushing prop of 32.5 yards. Hunt has averaged 5 yards per carry this season, but even being conservative with his efficiency, Hunt likely only needs eight or nine carries in order to safely smash that mark this Sunday.

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Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore

The Panthers offense looked atrocious the last time they played. Cam Newton looked completely baffled by the Dolphins defense (which, in Carolina’s defense, has been one of the better defensive units in the league) and ultimately was benched for P.J. Walker by game’s end. But D.J. Moore was all that affected by the erratic quarterback play, as he saw 10-plus targets for the sixth time this season and now ranks top five among all wideouts in target share this season. Despite being trapped in a below-average passing attack, Moore continues to play efficient football, ranking inside the top 30 wideouts in yards per route run, and 36.7% share of team yards receiving and touchdowns ranks third best among all receivers this season. All together, this makes Moore a slam dunk option in DFS lineups this weekend against the Falcons, who rank fourth worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses. Moore’s yards receiving prop looks way off as well this weekend. Moore is projected for over 80 yards receiving this weekend, while his current prop line sits at 54.5. In Awesemo’s simulations, Moore goes over that mark over 70% of the time.

Wide Receiver: Cole Beasley

The Bills take on the Buccaneers in the premier matchup of the Week 14 main slate and will need a much better performance from their passing attack if they want any chance of keeping pace with the high-powered Tampa Bay offense on the road this Sunday. Since Dawson Knox returned from injured reserve, the target share behind star receiver Stefon Diggs has been in flux within the Buffalo offense, with Knox, Gabriel Davis and even Emmanuel Sanders seeing a larger target share than Beasley over the last three weeks. Still, looking at the entire season, Beasley is the clear second option in the passing attack, with a 19.1% target share. This week’s matchup likely calls for Josh Allen and company to continue passing late in the game, and Allen will likely need a consistent check-down option to move the sticks. That is where Beasley, who has a 5.8 average depth of target this season, can thrive, making him viable in any type of DFS tournament this weekend. He makes for an excellent run-back option in Tom Brady stacks (which look extremely appealing in Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool), and while the Tampa Bay defense has been better in recent weeks, Beasley looks like one of the safer bets on Buffalo. The Awesemo projections suggest jumping on the over on Beasley’s modest yards receiving prop line, which currently has a win probability of 68%.

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Wide Receiver: Courtland Sutton

Sutton only had two receptions for 15 yards in Week 13, which marked his fifth straight week with less than three receptions. Sutton has faded into obscurity within the Broncos’ offense, especially since Jerry Jeudy returned to action in Week 8. During that span, Sutton does not have a single game with more than 40 yards receiving, and after earning at least 100 air yards in three of his first six games this season, Sutton had seen a maximum of 54 air yards in a game since that point. That changed last week against Kansas City, as Sutton finally received 100-plus air yards of opportunity on six targets. Despite the incredibly lack of production, Sutton still ranks third in the NFL in targets of 20-plus air yards and second in PlayerProfiler’s target quality rating, indicating the accuracy of the targets is not necessarily the issue. While the Denver offense ranks well below average, it is likely variance that has kept Sutton’s production this low for this length. He is best saved for large-field tournaments where he makes a somewhat decent GPP play, but Awesemo’s Player Props Tool absolutely loves the over on Sutton’s modest receiving prop line of 34.5 yards, a number he hits in two-thirds of Week 14 simulations.

Tight End: Mark Andrews

Andrews could not quite reel in what would have been a game-winning 2-point conversion a week ago against the Steelers, but he has been an elite offensive weapon throughout the second half of the NFL season. Andrews has seen seven or more targets in six straight games and is averaging 10 targets per game over his last four starts. He now ranks second at his position in targets, deep targets, and air yard share and is best among all tight ends in air yards and targets per snap. Though he only had four receptions for 65 yards against the Browns in Week 12, Andrews was targeted a team-high 10 times, and he has had at least one red-zone target in every week since Week 9. Facing Cleveland once again, who are middle of the road in yards allowed per pass attempt this season, Andrews makes for a quality “pay up to be contrarian” option in DFS this weekend. OddsShopper shows betting on Andrews to go under 56.5 yards receiving has a win probability of 63%. However, it would not be crazy, at least in this one circumstance, to buck the projections and take the over on this one.

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We also have showdown projections and NFL DFS showdown ownership projections. View our FanDuel NFL ownership rankings and our DraftKings NFL DFS rankings. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS tools for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. Take a look at our NFL depth charts, NFL starting lineups and inactives list.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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