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Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 10 Sunday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks




NFL DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel daily fantasy football Week 10 Sunday Night Football Chiefs vs. Raiders showdown game breakdown matchup advice tips strategy rankings ownership projections Derek Carr Patrick Mahomes

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 10 Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 10 Chiefs vs. Raiders Night Football matchup.

Week 10 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The 5-4 Chiefs head to Las Vegas to take on the division rival Raiders, who are surprisingly 5-3 and tied for the division lead with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs, who have been perennial juggernauts in recent years, have played far from elite football of late, struggling mightily on both sides of the ball and now sitting in an unfamiliar third place. Over the last three games, they’re 20th in the NFL in points scored per play and rank 24th in yards gained per pass attempt. That, combined with Kansas City’s bottom-five defense in nearly every statistical category, could spell disaster for the Chiefs against the Raiders. With a solid 52-point Vegas total, and plenty of questions about both offenses, this should be a highly intriguing one-game Showdown slate.

Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr Are only So-So as Captain Plays

On FanDuel, where it’s more advantageous to roster quarterbacks in the MVP position, both players are much more viable, but on DraftKings, it’s not a bad idea to be slightly underweight on both quarterbacks at Captain compared to the field. Mahomes still has a massive ceiling game in his range of outcomes, but with his recent volatility in efficiency, averaging under 5.5 yards per attempt over his last three games, he’s no longer a priority play, especially without a definitive dip in salary. Carr is a consistent producer, and could always have an anomalous performance on a one-game slate, but has scored between 13 and 26 points in five of his last six games, and hasn’t scored more than 28 DraftKings points all season.

Tyreek Hill’s Ceiling-Game Potential is Unmatched

The Chiefs have been struggling on offense, but from a volume standpoint, almost no one’s passing at a higher clip, as the team has averaged over 42 pass plays per game this season, second-highest in the NFL. That has helped Hill earn the second-most total targets and the most air yards of any player in the NFL. He has averaged 12.5 targets per game since Week 4, and seen double-digit opportunities in six of his nine starts this season. Though Las Vegas ranks top 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt, it is only middle of the pack in points allowed per play, meaning the big-play potential is certainly still there for Hill in this matchup. Hill’s ceiling projection is five points higher than Carr’s ceiling projection this evening. If rostering one of the “big-two” Chiefs weapons, Hill is the preferred option to Travis Kelce in tournaments, though Kelce is likely to see between seven and 10 looks in this contest as well. Kelce isn’t a bad play by any stretch, but the salary savings from Hill to Kelce aren’t substantial enough to sacrifice the ceiling potential you get by rostering Hill instead. It doesn’t appear that their ownership projections are different enough to warrant making the switch, either.

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Darrel Williams is a Top Value Play

Williams has seen 24, 9, 19, and 23 opportunities over his last four starts, and hasn’t seen less than four targets in a game in five straight games. While he’s averaging under 3.5 yards per carry during that span, the receiving floor, and the touchdown upside remains incredibly high for the Chiefs’ starting running back. Among all FLEX players projected for seven or more points, Williams has the highest value score of any player on the slate. At $7,200 on DraftKings and with a massive guaranteed workload, he’s the much preferred mid-tier salary play to the Raiders’ Hunter Renfrow, who, at $8,400 has a similar opportunity floor, as he’s likely to soak up eight to nine targets, but doesn’t have the same ceiling projection as Williams, despite requiring $1,200 more in salary to roster.

Darren Waller is the Best Option on the Raiders’ Offense

It’s not particularly close, either. Waller has been bothered by an ankle injury this season that limited his opportunities, and eventually forced him to miss week seven. Finally healthy after a two-week rest, Waller saw 11 targets in Week 9, his most opportunity since Week 1, catching seven passes for 92 yards, scoring over 15 fantasy points for just the second time this season. Though his range of outcomes remains quite large, Waller is the lowest-salary player with a ceiling projection greater than 30 DraftKings points, making him a phenomenal Captain play in tournaments on that platform.

Focus on a Trio of Auxiliary Weapons in Tournaments

While the top-tier receiving options in this game are excellent, the Chiefs have continued to increase the workload for speedster Mecole Hardman this season, as he’s averaged over six opportunities per game since Week 5, and saw a career-high 12 looks against Buffalo in Week 5. Kenyan Drake looks like he’s going to be utilized as a hybrid weapon going forward, not dissimilar from Cordarrelle Patterson (though Drake hasn’t had a nose for the end zone like Patterson), as he earned a season-high eight targets last week, and has averaged 14.5 opportunities over his last two starts. Though it’s likely Drake’s ceiling is capped, and he wouldn’t take on a bell-cow role should Josh Jacobs get hurt, Drake still has fantastic upside against the Chiefs’ bottom-five defense. If looking for a lower-salary dart-throw play, Bryan Edwards makes for an interesting option, as he’s seen exactly four looks in four of his last five games, and has earned between three and six targets in every game this season. If any of this trio score, they very likely end up in the optimal lineup this Sunday.

The Bottom Line

Despite myriad mistakes over the last three weeks, the Chiefs’ offense is still capable of earning yards and points in bunches. Mahomes has been turnover-prone, but remains a top-tier passer in per-play and per-pass efficiency. The Chiefs’ series success rate, their ability to turn a first down into another first down (or touchdown), remains best in the NFL this season. They just haven’t put up points like we’re used to. While the Las Vegas defense has improved in recent weeks, and now ranks in the top-ten in PFF’s team defensive grades, they’re just league-average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, which, along with a healthy 27-point implied team total, indicates the Chiefs’ should bounce back to their formerly-prolific form. The Chiefs’ defense is so bad, however, that they likely keep this one close throughout.

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Week 10 Sunday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 31, Raiders 30

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View our DraftKings NFL DFS ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL rankings. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS data for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. We also have NFL DFS single-game projections and DraftKings showdown ownership projections. Take a look at our inactive players, NFL depth charts and NFL starting lineups.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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