Miami Dolphins (21.5) at New England Patriots (23.5)
It has been a wild year and a half for the New England Patriots. After Tom Brady said goodbye to Foxborough after two decades, the Patriots brought in former-MVP Cam Newton to try and prop-up an underwhelming offense to little avail, especially after Newton was slowed by injuries and illness. In response, the Patriots completely revamped their skill players, signing top tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, as well as wide receiver Nelson Agholor, coming off a career year with Las Vegas in 2020. Most importantly, quarterback Mac Jones fell to New England at pick 15, and after a spectacular preseason, won the starting job, leading to Newton’s release. In Week 1. the new-look Patriots will host division rival Miami, who has officially turned the reins over to Tua Tagovailoa and added a duo of speedsters in first-round pick Jaylen Waddle and former first-rounder Will Fuller. And yet, even with so much talent added on both offenses, the Vegas spread indicates this may be a low-scoring, run-focused defensive battle.
Which Dolphins WRs Can We Play?
With Will Fuller suspended for Week 1, DeVante Parker has a strong chance to lead the Miami passing game in receiving yards. The Awesemo projections highly suggest bettors take the over on his 44.5 receiving yards prop line.
There is a ton of hype about rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle, the second wideout taken in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Alabama prospect will add needed dynamism to the Miami passing attack and should spend time returning punts and kicks as well. His impact should be felt immediately.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving yardage prop line of 38.5 also looks like a solid chance to bet the over. Gesicki split time with Adam Shaheen in preseason action, but Shaheen is out Sunday due to COVID-19, leaving Gesicki alone as the primary receiving tight end.
What will the Patriots Offense Look Like?
Expect the Patriots to create easy opportunities for new quarterback Mac Jones early-on. We could see plenty of short-area pass plays, which could mean extra work for pass-catching back James White. White looks like a high-floor play this week in fantasy football and is a solid spot-start if you need 12-plus PPR fantasy points. His ceiling is somewhat capped, however.
Though his usage in the passing game is lacking, Damien Harris grades out as a strong value play in DFS in terms of salary per projected touch, and assuming his typical efficiency on the ground we should expect Harris to smash his rushing yardage prop line of 68.5.
The Awesemo projections predict at least six Mac Jones targets will head towards one of their two new tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. While the projected target distribution is roughly 50/50, we should expect this to be volatile week to week. We should see one solid DFS play emerge from the pair – picking which one will be the difficult part.
The Bottom Line
This game does not look all that appealing, and the most likely game scenario is that both these teams remain run-oriented and relatively slow, as we saw both offenses play last season. But with the added weaponry for both teams, it is possible this game opens up much more than the low Vegas totals suggest. Mac Jones has a ton more at his disposal in terms of weaponry than Cam Newton had last year (even if Nelson Agholor is at risk of missing this week), and the addition of Waddle to the Dolphins should immediately change the look and feel of the Miami offense, as well. It is fine to take some chances on the primary pass catchers in DFS tournaments.
