Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups and Game Breakdowns + NFL Player Props Picks

Denver Broncos (22) at New York Giants (21)

The Broncos and Giants meet in Week 1, in what looks like, at least from a fantasy football perspective, one of the least-appetizing matchups of the main slate. With the Vegas lines suggesting a mere 43 total points, this projects as one of the most defensively focused games of the weekend, which makes sense for the favored Broncos, who ranked 7th in PFF’s team defensive grades, and well above league average in success rate allowed versus both passes and versus rushes in 2020. The Gants, too, are an underrated defensive unit, ranking top 10 in defensive success rate allowed last season as well. On the offensive side of things, though both the Giants and Broncos have formidable talent at the skill positions, their projections are dragged down by expected sub-par quarterback play, as both Daniel Jones and the Broncos’ newly named starter Teddy Bridgewater have ranked outside the top 20 in key efficiency metrics such as EPA/play and completion percentage versus expected. This game looks as close to a “stay-away” game as there is on the slate.

Can Teddy Bridgewater Support ALL of These WRs?

We should expect Denver’s offense to be somewhat conservative with Teddy Bridgewater under center compared to Drew Lock. Bridgewater is less turnover-prone, but takes less chances as a passer, which is why Awesemo’s predict Bridgewater will come in under his prop line of 248.5 passing yards.

The beneficiary of that conservatism on offense should be the Denver running backs, where Melvin Gordon is projected to get at least 60% of the backfield touches. Gordon’s rushing yards prop line is set at 49.5, and the Awesemo projections say he should produce that amount comfortably.

The Awesemo projections do not see the overs hitting on the receptions props for any of the three primary receivers in Denver. This offense likely does not have the necessary volume nor efficiency to prop-up three viable pass catchers, making these players tough to roster in DFS lineups, as well.

This Giants Offense is Gross

The Giants are not healthy heading into Week 1. Kenny Golladay, their prized free agency pickup, already had a significant hamstring injury in training camp. Kadarius Toney has missed time, and by all accounts has had a wholly uninspiring training camp, and free agent tight end Kyle Rudolph is also banged-up. If one or some end up missing, Sterling Shepard would see a boost in opportunity.

Saquon Barkley is projected to return but is not projected for close to his typical workload. He is only projected for the 15th most running back opportunities on the main slate, compared to his typical ranking within the top five backs when fully healthy. The Broncos were an average defense against the rush last season.

If you are looking to bet the over for a Giants’ player, look no further than Daniel Jones’ 20.5 rushing yardage prop line. The Awesemo projections indicate Jones will rush plenty of times this weekend, so that he would only need middling efficiency to meet that yardage total. He could easily double that implied amount on the ground.

The Bottom Line

On paper, this looks like one of the ugliest games on the slate, with two decent defenses teeing-off against two below-average offenses. While it is possible a player or two emerges from this contest with solid production, it is highly unlikely. Expect this game to be slow, run-focused, and full of stalled-out drives.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Giants 18

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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