Pittsburgh Steelers (21.5) at Buffalo Bills (28)
Two of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL last season meet in Week 1 in Buffalo, in what could easily be the highest-scoring game on the slate. The quarterbacks should be passing early and often, which typically leads to not only more chunk plays, but more plays run in general (as incomplete passes stop the clock). The Vegas spread for this game implies Pittsburgh’s elite defense will need to be every bit as good as last year in order for their offense, which sputtered and failed spectacularly down the stretch, to keep pace with the high-flying Bills, who ranked 4th in game-adjusted pass rate, according to the Awesemo Advanced stats tool. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.
Stefon Diggs’ Popularity is Well-Deserved
The Bills consistently funnel a large majority of their offense through their primary weapons, and that starts with Stefon Diggs. Diggs has a projected ownership pushing 20% and is facing one of the toughest defenses in the league and is still a rock-solid bet at his $7,600 salary on DraftKings, second among wideouts. Despite being the WR2 on FanDuel as well, at $7,900, Diggs’ salary occupies a lower relative amount of your salary, making him an even better play on that platform. He can be paired with Josh Allen in all formats, as the top stacks tool shows Buffalo as the second-best stack value on the entire slate.
Diontae Johnson the Preferred of the Steelers “Big 3” Receivers
Though any of the three primary pass catchers for Pittsburgh, or even Najee Harris are viable run-back options, Diontae Johnson looks like a solid option this Sunday. In 2020, Johnson ranked 8th among all receivers on the slate in expected fantasy points per game and has a projected ownership under 2% while only having the fourteenth highest salary among wide receivers on DraftKings.
Emmanuel Sanders is Primed for a Huge Role
If looking to play lower-salary options from this game, the first place fantasy gamers should look is the Bills’ newly acquired veteran Emmanuel Sanders, who looks to have the secondary receiver role vacated by John Brown locked-in for himself. Brown averaged over 10 expected fantasy points per game last season, which would be just 2 DraftKings points away from 3x value for Sanders, based on his $6,800 salary. Assuming he has a similar workload, all he has to do is be moderately efficient to return value.
Don’t Expect Najee Harris to leave the Field
The Steelers drafted running back Najee Harris in the first round as a signal to the rest of the league that they do not have any plans to be as pass happy as they were a season ago, and while the offensive line has not dramatically improved, it should be better than last season when it was among the worst lines in the entire NFL. The Bills defense ranked well above league average in success rate allowed against the run, but right at league-average in fantasy points allowed versus opponent average last season, indicating running backs can still reach their expected value, and sure enough, his Awesemo projection is right in line with salary-based expectations. He is a solid contrarian option when pivoting away from the top tier running backs.
Eric Ebron a Sneaky Start
It may be a bit of noise, since the unit as a whole was excellent, but the Bills ranked 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight end, and Steelers tight end Eric Ebron’s red zone target share was inside the top 30 of all players last season. He ranked ninth in expected fantasy points per game at his position last year but has the 12th-highest salary among tight ends on FanDuel and 14th-highest salary on DraftKings.
Chase Claypool a Value at Salary
At $6,000 on FanDuel, barely inside the top 30 wide receivers in salary, Chase Claypool looks like one of the best value plays on the slate. Even against a quality opponent in Buffalo, Claypool’s projections far exceed his salary-based expectations. The Bills were not particularly impressive against secondary receivers, ranking outside the top 20 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position group.
The Bottom Line
For the Bills, this game is far from a typical “touchdown favorite” game. The Steelers may have imploded in January last season, but they were one of the most impressive teams in football to begin last season and return nearly all of their premiere talent on both sides of the ball. With the Bills committed to passing early and often, and the Steelers likely forced to push the pace to keep up, this is a game fantasy football players want to be targeting. Unless you have a very specific reason for fading this contest, your daily fantasy lineups should be chock-full of Bills and Steelers.
