Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups and Game Breakdowns + NFL Player Props Picks

New York Jets (19.5) at Carolina Panthers (24)

Just three seasons ago, Sam Darnold was a highly coveted draft pick, but after showing promise as a rookie, has turned-in two straight seasons to forget. Now a member of the Carolina Panthers, and finally far away from former coach Adam Gase, Darnold has a chance to prove that at just 23, he can transform himself into a quality NFL starter, as former first-rounder Ryan Tannehill did after leaving Gase’s Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Jets cleaned house, bringing in highly coveted coaching candidate Robert Saleh (who brought along a cadre of coaches from the 49ers) and turning the keys of the franchise over to rookie quarterback Zack Wilson, who dazzled in his final season at BYU en route to the second overall selection in last April’s draft. Even though this game features one of the lowest Vegas implied totals on the slate, this game features some sneaky-upside plays beyond the unequivocal number one overall player Christian McCaffrey. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.

McCaffrey Still The Undisputed Top RB

In very limited action last season, Christian McCaffrey was nothing short of spectacular, ranking first expected fantasy points per game and in fantasy point scored in fantasy points versus expectation. When healthy, McCaffrey is typically well over $10,000 on DraftKings and will likely be there again soon. One could argue his $9,500 salary, tops among all skill players, is still a value. The Jets ranked outside the top 15 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, making this as good of a smash spot for any player on the slate. The only difficulty is the salary concessions you will have to make at the other positions in daily fantasy football lineups.

Two New Go-To Receivers in New York

The Jets are hoping to have Jamison Crowder back for Week 1, but the New York passing attack should still be consolidated around new acquisitions Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, the team’s second-round pick out of Ole Miss. Moore’s ceiling is as high as any receiver in this draft, and despite a middling projection, still looks like a value play at $3,000 on DraftKings. On FanDuel is salary is slightly increased, making him slightly less intriguing, but far from unplayable.

When comparing projection-based rankings to salary-based rankings, Corey Davis looks like a smash play on FanDuel this weekend. At just $5,800, outside the top 30 wide receivers, Davis should easily lead the team in target share, and has decent touchdown upside against a Panthers defense that ranked seventh worst in PFF’s team defensive grade a season ago. The Awesemo projections place Davis inside the top 15 FanDuel receivers.

The Jets’ Running Back by Committee

The Jets look poised to use a three-man running back committee early in the season, with likely-starter Tevin Coleman expected to be spelled by unproven youngster Ty Johnson and fourth-round rookie Michael Carter. Carter possesses above-average size and speed as a prospect but is unlikely to separate himself from the pack this week. Carolina quietly ranked eighth in success rate allowed versus opposing rusher last season. The Awesemo projections have all three Jets running backs projected for under six points apiece.

Quarterbacks are Tournament-Only DFS Plays

Neither of the starting quarterbacks jump off the page as quality starts in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, but due to a reduced salary compared to the rest of the field, Darnold is currently projected to the fourth most rostered quarterback on the slate this weekend, making Zack Wilson, who has almost the exact same median projection (as well as some underrated rushing upside) a much more appealing tournament play at 2% projected ownership, at least from a game theory perspective.

Robby Anderson a Hidden Value Play

Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson have inflated salaries due to the perceived ineptitude of the Jets’ defense, but their Awesemo projections are in-line with salary-based expectations, nonetheless. Moore is the higher salary player and is expected to be rostered more frequently than Anderson, yet it was Anderson who outpaced Moore in expected fantasy points per game last season. In fact, Anderson ranked inside the top 15 among all receivers on the slate in expected fantasy points per game last season.

The Bottom Line

This game has some sneaky appeal for fantasy gamers, particularly because the expected consolidated production on Carolina’s side of the ball. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Jets offense in Week 1, you will be separating yourself from much of the field if you are willing to roster a few New York options and the prove to be even remotely competent. The bar has been set incredibly low by the previous coaching staff, but the new look Jets offense has had a massing influx of talent and has tons of reasons for optimism. In large-field tournaments, do not be afraid to play Davis, Moore, or Crowder as run-back options when stacking this game.

Prediction: Carolina 26, Jets 21 (OVER)

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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