Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups and Game Breakdowns + NFL Player Props Picks

Minnesota Vikings (25.75) at Cincinnati Bengals (22.75)

The Vikings disappointed majorly in 2020, missing the playoffs despite an all-pro caliber season from their superstar running back, Dalvin Cook, a 14-touchdown season from perennial pro-bowler Adam Thielen, and one of the best rookie seasons by a receiver in NFL history from Justin Jefferson. The trio averaged over 70 fantasy points a game in games in which they all played. They head to Cincinnati in Week 1 to face a Bengals squad that spent the second half of the season in freefall after losing 2020 #1 overall pick to gruesome knee injury. Now healed and expected to play in Week 1, Burrow has an enticing matchup against a Minnesota defense that ranked third worst in the NFL success rate allowed a season ago. Burrow also has a new receiving weapon in fifth overall pick Ja’Marr Chase, who, despite a preseason filled with concentration-drops, should open the passing attack even more, creating more space for Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins to operate. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.

Dalvin Should Cook

The Bengals’ defense finished 2020 with the seventh-best team coverage grade and eighth-worst run blocking grade according to PFF, possibly setting up a big day for Vikings’ running back Dalvin Cook. Cook is projected for the third most opportunities, and second most fantasy points at his position.

Minnesota’s Consolidated Offense

The Vikings’ offense ranked fourth in yards per play last season, with Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson accounting for over 60% of the targets. Though Minnesota’s play volume tends to trend toward league-average, and the Awesemo Advanced Stats tool shows them as one of the run-heaviest teams in the league, the concentrated fantasy points make the “big-3” extra appealing in any plus-matchup.

Holes in the Vikings’ Defense

Over the last 10 weeks of 2020, Minnesota’s defense ranked third worst in the NFL in success rate allowed, and it is possible to imagine second-year quarterback Joe Burrow finding holes in the Vikings’ secondary early-on. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd could both see six-plus targets.

Joe Mixon, Every Down Workhorse

With the departure of Giovani Bernard, Joe Mixon will be expected to carry a large majority of the backfield workload in Cincinnati but could be slowed by the Bengals’ bottom-12 offensive line play. Mixon ranked fifth among all running backs last season in expected fantasy points per game, but outside the top 60 backs in fantasy points versus expectation.

Ja’Marr Chase Could Still Be Good

The Awesemo projections see Bengals’ first-round receiver Ja’Marr Chase as a value compared to his $4,800 salary on DraftKings, 48th among all wide receivers. Chase struggled with drops in the preseason, but he was one of the highest rated wide receiver prospects in the last half-decade coming out of LSU. Awesemo projections him for nearly eight targets this Sunday.

Adam Thielen Needs to be Efficient

Adam Thielen projects for less targets than Chase, but his season-long touchdown O/U over 8.8 implies nearly 1 touchdown every other game. Though Thielen had a fantastic red zone target share a year ago, he should see regression in that category this season.

Minnesota’s Unknown Auxiliary Options

With Irv Smith lost to for the season, expect tight end Tyler Conklin to get extended playing time, but do not be surprised if fifth-rounder Ihmir Smith-Marsette makes an impact right away

The Bottom Line

The most likely game flow in this matchup involves Minnesota attempting to control the game on the ground, while taking periodic deep shots to their two outside playmakers, Jefferson and Thielen. The Bengals, still with a well below-average offensive line, will rely on quick passing to move down the field, and if their offense with Burrow back under center looks anything like it did last season, there should be enough passing volume to sustain three receivers. If Burrow can be efficient with that volume, this game could easily hit the over. If they are not, and Minnesota remains in control, look to snag the under, and play Dalvin Cook everywhere you can in fantasy football.

Prediction: Vikings 29, Bengals 28 (OVER)

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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