San Francisco 49ers (26.5) at Detroit Lions (19)
The Detroit Lions enter the 2021 season with some of the lowest expectations of any team in the NFL. After trading away quarterback Matthew Stafford for the Rams’ Jared Goff and letting start receivers Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay walk in free agency, the Lions signaled to the rest of the league that this season is likely one for rebuilding, regardless of what kneecap-obsessed head coach Dan Campbell has to say. They draw the 49ers in Week 1, a team looking to get back to winning ways after a massively disappointing 2020, but with plenty of questions of their own, particularly at quarterback. The team leveraged their future, trading multiple picks in order to select Trey Lance, but at least in Week 1, while he nurses an injury to his throwing hand, the starting job belongs to incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo, though we would have to imagine he has one of the shortest leashes of any quarterback in the league. Should Garoppolo falter, particularly in this highly winnable matchup, Lance could make his debut under-center sooner rather than later. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.
Raheem Mostert Has Tons of Upside
Raheem Mostert is projected for the most total opportunities in this game with 16, ahead of D’Andre Swift who has a higher salary than Mostert on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The addition of Trey Lance, even as just a part-time quarterback, could be highly beneficial to a downhill speedster like Mostert. In limited preseason action with Lance under center, Mostert was able to gash defenses on the ground for multiple chunk plays. We will likely see more of the same against the Lions’ bottom-five defense.
The 49ers Spread-em-out Pass Attack
The Awesemo Stat Projections tool projects a wide distribution of targets amongst the 49ers’ receivers. Deebo Samul is currently projected for 7.9 targets, while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are just behind at 6.9 and 7.2 projected targets. The Lions only have one receiver projected for more than six targets, free agent acquisition Tyrell Williams.
The Same Old Lions, But Worse
Detroit may have changed much of their coaching since 2020, but do not expect their offensive philosophy to shift tremendously from 2020, where they ranked well below-average in game-adjusted pace and top 10 in game-adjusted rush rate, according to the NFL Advanced Stats tool. Coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn are known as traditional, run-focused coordinators who will likely try (fruitlessly) to control this game with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, until the game situation forces them to throw.
T.J. Hockenson, Target Hog
T.J. Hockenson is one of the top 10 most talented players at his position, and projects as the highest targeted non-running back on his team. Awesemo currently projects him for over seven targets, which makes the over on his receptions prop line of 4.5 extremely appealing.
Trey Sermon in a GPP
In DFS Tournaments, do not forget about Trey Sermon, the mid-round pick out of Ohio State who should immediately see usage spelling Raheem Mostert. Awesemo has him projected for over 58 rushing yards in his debut, which would smash his prop line of 41.5 yards.
Goff Likely Forced Into “Catch-Up” Mode
It might not feel great, but even in a terrible expected game environment, we can project Jared Goff to outpace his extremely middling prop line of 223.5 passing yards. If you are dying to get some bets on a Detroit Lion, you could do much worse than betting the over here. The Awesemo projections have Goff at nearly 250 yards passing this weekend.
The Bottom Line
It is hard to see the Lions staying competitive at all in this contest. The downgrade from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff is going to be felt immediately. The Lions are at risk at being one of the least efficient offenses in the league this year, and the 49ers’ defense, one of the best overall units in the NFL, should have a field day against an out-matched Detroit squad. DFS players should try and fit 49ers, especially the 49ers Defense, into lineups as much as possible.
