Jacksonville Jaguars (24) at Houston Texans (21.5)
The Jaguars have not won a football game since September 13, 2020, when Gardner Minshew led Jacksonville to a surprise comeback victory over the highly favored Colts. But now Minshew is a backup in Philadelphia, and the Jaguars have embraced quarterback Trevor Lawrence, one of the most highly coveted quarterback prospects in decades, as their franchise leader from day one. Even without a single snap of regular season experience, Lawrence will come into Sunday’s game as nearly field goal favorites against a Texans team that is almost certain to compete for the number one overall pick in 2022. While both teams will sport new starting quarterbacks led by new head coaches, these are franchises headed in two different directions. The Texans, led by longtime assistant-turned head coach David Culley, will trot-out Tyrod Taylor Sunday, arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL at this time and likely utilize a five-headed running back committee (yes, you read that correctly). Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.
Trevor Lawrence Should Come Out Throwing
Expect Trevor Lawrence to spread the ball out to his top three wide receivers, but do not expect there to be a clear hierarchy between D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault. The Awesemo Player Props Tools shows Chark and Shenault as buys at their current receiving yardage prop lines.
Houston’s Defense Waiving the White Flag
Over the last 5 weeks of the 2020 season, Houston ranked fifth worst in defensive series success rate allowed and struggled against the pass in particular. If there was ever a game for a number one overall pick to have a surprise three-plus touchdown game, it would be Lawrence in this spot.
James Robinson, DFS Value
James Robinson is a clear value-play in DFS based on projected workload alone. With salaries being released well in advance of Week 1 (prior to teammate Travis Etienne’s season-ending injury), he is a fantastic salary-saver option. His rushing yards prop line of 68.5 is reasonable as well for a road favorite, and the over looks to have a high ROI on the Player Props tool.
Will Urban Meyer Push the Pace?
The NFL Advanced Stats Tool shows the Jaguars as one of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL last season, but that could absolutely change under new coach Urban Meyer. Even if they move just slightly towards league-average in pace, we could expect an average of 4-6 more offensive plays per game from this squad in 2021, resulting in more production from the skill position players.
Brandin Cooks Should See Plenty of Work
There is very little to like about Houston’s offense this season, but Brandin Cooks is by far the team’s best receiver and is facing a Jaguars secondary that ranked bottom-10 in success rate in 2020. Cooks projects for eight targets, higher than any other player in this game.
Phillip Lindsay the RB you want in Houston?
Even though they will likely be playing from behind, the Awesemo projections are bullish on Phillip Lindsey being high involved alongside David Johnson. He is currently projected for 13 rushes, and if he gets the workload, he should smash his rushing prop of 38.5 yards.
The Bottom Line
The Texans are not prepared to win many games this season, and the new-look Jaguars need to take advantage of the opportunity for an easy win in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence should have every opportunity to showcase the skill set that made him the undisputed number one overall pick against a putrid Texans defense that conceded defeat by trading cornerback Bradley Roby to a contender just days before the start of the regular season. This is not going to be fun, Texans fans.
