Arizona Cardinals (24.25) at Tennessee Titans (26.75)
Two high-flying offenses, plenty of slate-breaking skill players, and two below averages defenses against opposing passing attacks. That’s as close to a perfect recipe for a shootout as you can have in the NFL, and no game fits that mold quite like the Week 1 matchup between the Cardinals and Tennessee Titans. The Titans are locked-into “win now” mode with arguably the biggest acquisition of the offseason, trading for superstar wideout Julio Jones to work in tandem with rising star A.J. Brown on the outside and take pressure off of all pro running back Derrick Henry. The Cardinals offense is looking to take the next step, particularly in the vertical passing game, with analysts and fans alike clamoring that Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense looked more like the “horizontal raid” due to the offense’s high volume of short crosses and slant routes. Enter A.J. Green, nearly three seasons removed from his last star-level season. The Cardinals are hoping that it is injuries and not age that have derailed Green, and that they will get one more quality season out of him. Still, despite being a fantasy friendly offense, particularly because of Kyler Murray’s ability as a rusher, the Cardinals have much to prove as a team, and despite Vegas predicting a close game, will have to be much better defensively, especially against the pass, if they hope to contain the loaded Tennessee offensive attack. Let’s break down the top NFL DFS picks for this matchup.
Bet on A.J. Brown
Receiver A.J. Brown has missed practices this week due to lower body injuries but is still expected to play. The Awesemo Player Props tool projects Brown for nearly 20 receiving yards more than his current prop line of 65.5.
Julio Jones Could Struggle in His Tennessee Debut
The same cannot be said about teammate Julio Jones, whose receiving yards prop line of 60.5 seems a bit too high. Jones is projected for under 40 yards receiving, making the under a pretty easy bet for the newest Titans receiver. It should be noted, however, that PFF grades this matchup as excellent for Jones, so there are certainly scenarios where he far exceeds expectations.
Running Back Committee in Arizona
Even in a production-friendly game environment, it is hard to determine how Arizona will utilize the tandem of Chase Edmonds and James Conner in the backfield heading into Week 1. Awesemo currently projects Edmonds to go under his prop lines of 2.2 receptions for 22.5 yards, but over his 37.5 rushing yards prop by a wide margin. Edmonds is a DFS tournament play if pivoting from the premium-tier at running back.
Kyler Murray More Focused on Rushing
While Kyler Murray looks like a strong play in DFS lineups this weekend due to his ability to create big plays via rushing and passing, but Awesemo is not bullish on Murray’s passing yards prop line of 259.5. Murray projects for just over 240 yards, making this a close bet, but one leaning towards the under.
Expect Big Things from Rondale Moore
Neither A.J. Green, nor second-round pick Rondale Moore have receptions or receiving yards prop lines, a strong indicator of the uncertainty surrounding who will see the most opportunity behind DeAndre Hopkins in the passing game. Moore, the rookie out of Purdue, seems like an ideal fit in the Air-Raid system, which features a plethora of horizontal routes allowing for runs after the catch, an area where Moore shined in college.
Derrick Henry Could Eat (As Usual)
What needs to be said about Derrick Henry that has not already been said? The most unique running back in football has the ability to single handedly smash a DFS slate on any given Sunday – despite not catching passes – and is going under-owned compared to the other premium tier running backs in a prime spot. Unsurprisingly, the over on Henry’s rushing yard prop line of 105.5 looks like a very solid bet on the Player Props Tool.
The Bottom Line
With so much offensive firepower, and so little defensive ability on either side, there is a massively high probability of a shootout here. Betting on the Titans’ players comes with the comfort of knowing exactly where the production will come from if the team is able to meet expectations, meaning DFS players could stack two or even three of the ‘big 3’ Titans in their lineups, likely securing at least two strong performances. Kyler Murray, and to an extent DeAndre Hopkins, look like the strongest bets on the Arizona side of the ball. Betting the under on this one is not for the faint of heart.
