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Packers vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks




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Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 3 Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 3 Packers vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football matchup.

Week 3 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The Packers are surprise underdogs in San Francisco, but they look much more like the Packers of old after Week 2. In Week 1 they were a complete mess, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but Green Bay got back on track against division-rival Detroit in Week 2. The 49ers beat those same hapless Lions in Week 1 and then took care of business against a middling Eagles squad but still gave up a massive amount of production to Jalen Hurts. The San Francisco defense will have an even tougher task this Sunday night as they try to stop a passing attack that was the most efficient in the league on a per-play basis a season ago and currently ranks second in yards per drive. If the 49ers secondary is not able to contain Rodgers, this game will turn into a shootout rather quickly.

Davante Adams Will Find the End Zone Soon

Adams ranked first in the NFL in red-zone targets last season but only has one look in the red zone this season. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones has four already. Jones’ looks near the goal line should regress, and Adams’ chances should increase over the course of the season. Adams’ touchdown probability looks a bit higher than hitting the over on his receptions prop line of 8.5, though a ceiling performance from Adams is far from out of the question in this game, and he looks like a high-quality Captain play in DFS tournaments.

Aaron Jones, Hidden Bell Cow

Jones was by far the most impressive player in the Packers Week 2 victory, as he scored four times and has been the most utilized Packers player in the red zone by a wide margin. However, some might be scared off of Jones due to the fact that he has only seen a 62% opportunity share this season, but that number needs context. The Packers were playing second-stringers in both games, in Week 1 because they were losing by a large amount and in Week 2 because they were winning. Jones should see 75% of opportunities when games a closer, as this game is expected to be.

Deebo Samuel is Getting Fed

Deebo Samuel is the leader in weighted opportunity share this year, as he has earned nearly 40% of the team’s targets and over 50% of the team’s air yards through two weeks. Samuel has been the best part of the 49ers offense, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in yards after the catch and No. 3 in fantasy points per game. He is an easy option in DFS lineups this Sunday as the only surefire bet in the San Francisco receiving game.

Where is George Kittle?

After being the most heavily targeted 49ers player when healthy over the past two seasons, Kittle has taken a backseat to Samuel in 2021, earning fewer than six targets in both games to begin the year. Kittle has only 8% of the team’s air yards, meaning he is relying solely on efficiency and touchdown upside to justify his $8,200 salary on DraftKings. He does not even crack the top 10 players in Awesemo’s value metric.

Trey Sermon is a Free Square

With Elijah Mitchell doubtful for Sunday’s game, Trey Sermon will be the only active running back who was on the 49ers roster in Week 1. Behind Sermon, San Francisco will be down to a combination of Trenton Cannon (signed in Week 2) and Jacques Patrick (signed earlier this week). At $3,000 on DraftKings, Sermon is an absolute must-play in cash games due to his expected workload, and he will be tough to get away from even in tournaments unless specifically fading the 49ers running game. Green Bay ranks bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed this season.

The Bottom Line

San Francisco has been better than expected in the secondary, ranking eighth in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they are undermanned at cornerback and have only one full-time defensive back ranked inside PFF’s top 50. This could spell disaster against Aaron Rodgers, who has not connected on any touchdowns to wide receivers yet this season but will likely do everything in his power to correct that statistic this weekend. The 49ers, despite being favorites, might be helpless stopping an offensive onslaught. If that is the case, they will have to rely on Jimmy Garoppolo’s replacement-level play and Kyle Shanahan’s well-above-replacement-level offensive scheme to keep pace with one of the most explosive offenses in football. Garoppolo needs to have a mistake-free day, and both Samuel and Kittle will need to step up in order for San Francisco to have the offensive firepower to matchup with Green Bay.

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Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prediction: Packers 28, 49ers 20

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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and NFL stacks. Take a look at our starting line-ups, NFL inactives and NFL depth charts.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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