NFL DFS: Steelers vs. Chiefs Showdown Fantasy Picks DraftKings & FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Wild Card Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Wild Card Weekend Steelers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football matchup.

NFL DFS Preview & Projections: Steelers vs. Chiefs Night Football

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who despite an up-and-down 2021 season, at least for their standard, sit in a familiar spot as a top-two seed in the AFC, amd poised to make a deep playoff run. The Steelers, the primary beneficiaries of the Jaguars’ shocking Week 18 win over the Colts, have already proven themselves to be no match for the Chiefs, and were absolutely demolished by the Chiefs, who were without Travis Kelce, in Arrowhead stadium just three weeks ago. While it’s been a fun ride for Steelers fans as they very likely say goodbye to their franchise quarterback, the final game might end up being tough to watch. The Chiefs are favored by 13 points, and that spread is being generous to the Steelers and their abilit y to hang with Kansas City. At the very least, DFS players will have plenty of contrarian builds available to them, as most gamers will certainly shy away from any build that implies Pittsburgh will emerge victorious. The odds of an upset are incredibly, incredibly low.

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The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes ($11,800 DraftKings/$17,500 FanDuel) had arguably his worst season as a starting quarterback in 2021, and still finished among the top-ten signal-callers in nearly all important statistical categories. Mahomes ranked first in the NFL in accuracy rating, and was the top quarterback in total expected points added. He ranked fifth in QBR and in fantasy points per game, and ultimately threw for the fourth-most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. Against Pittsburgh in Week 16, Mahomes didn’t have to do all that much, but he was hyper efficient when he did choose to throw, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and three touchdown throws on just 30 attempts. He also did his damage without a fully-healthy Tyreek Hill ($11,000 DraftKings/$13,500 FanDuel), who was just returning from the COVID-19 list. Coincidentally, Hill is once again less than 100%, dealing with a heel injury he suffered during warmups in Week 18. While he’s expected to play in this contest, if Hill’s heel limits his speed and agility, Hill could disappoint at his sky-high salary. His ceiling is the top overall scorer on the slate however, the injury simply increases his range of outcomes. Travis Kelce ($9,400 DraftKings/$13,000 FanDuel) is just four weeks removed from a 13-catch, 191 receiving yard explosion against the Los Angeles Chargers, but has been quiet since returning from the COVID–19 list in Week 17. He’s seen a total of 12 targets in the two games since his return, and hasn’t topped five catches or 35 yards receiving in either game. But he found the end zone twice in that span,en route to the top spot among tight ends in total touchdowns this season. Pittsburgh has been stingy against opposing tight ends this season, but there’s no need to put too much stock into that, Kelce still has an extremely high chance of being in the optimal lineup this Sunday night.

In the backfield, similar to the last time these two teams met, Darrel Williams ($6,400 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel) will take on the bulk of the workload with Clyde Edwards-Helaire already ruled out in this contest. Williams was quite effective against Pittsburgh in Week 16, racking up 85 total yards on 14 opportunities, but was held out of the end zone, finishing with under 12 fantasy points. But Williams’ ceiling in this game is significantly higher than that. He could easily command 20 total opportunities, and has a floor of three targets. The Steelers ranked dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per rush attempt, and 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing backs this season.

The Steelers will do everything they can to ensure they send Ben Roethlisberger ($8,800 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel) off into the sunset correctly, but there chances of keeping pace with the high-flying Chiefs are slim-to-none in this contest. Roethlisberger looks like a shell of his former self, ranking 28th in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt and 29th in true passer rating. He was outside the top-32 quarterbacks this season in fantasy points per dropback, and ranked number one in the NFL in plays graded as dangerous, averaging 3.4 per game. The Chiefs may not be the defense most equipped to capitalize on this, as they ranked below-average in yards allowed per pass attempt, but the secondary steadily improved throughout the second half of the season, and the Chiefs ultimately finished top-ten in points allowed per play, which indicates that things could be quite difficult for wideouts Diontae Johnson ($9,000 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) and Chase Claypool ($5,600 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel). To make matters more difficult, at least for fantasy gamers trying to figure out which, if any, of these Steelers receivers are capable of producing a tournament-winning score, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) appears poised to play for the first-time since October. While that may raise the overall ceiling of the offense, it lowers the chances that either of Pittsburgh’s “big two” or tight end Pat Freiermuth ($5,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) will end up scoring 20 or more fantasy points. The most likely game script involves the Steelers spreading the ball around, with each of the four weapons earning between five and ten looks. It would still be a massive surprise if any one other than Johnson led the team in targets, however. He still has the highest floor of any of the four.

Najee Harris ($9,800 DraftKings/$14,500 FanDuel), however, is the safest play on Pittsburgh by a longshot, simply due to his guaranteed workload. Harris ranked second in total carries this season with 307, and was first among all running backs in opportunity share, routes run, targets, and receptions. His 106 total evaded tackles was more than every other running back except for Jonathan Taylor, and his 12 rushes of 10 yards or more ranked eighth among all backs. Running behind a sub-par offensive line, harris still managed 1035 yards created (yards after those created by the offensive line), also the second-highest of any back in the NFL. Kansas City finished the season ranked 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt.

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As is typically the case when Kansas City is favored to win by double-digits, there’s absolutely no problem in taking a shot on one of Patrick Mahomes’ auxiliary weapons, though it’s also not necessary to take a chance on more than one in a single lineup. Byron Pringle ($4,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) quietly finished the season slightly ahead of Mecole Hardman ($6,200 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) in air yards share this season, But Hardman is still the only other player on the Chiefs’ roster besides Hill and Kelce to earn a double-digit target shaare. The ceiling for players like Pringle, Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), or even Josh Gordon ($400 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is likely three targets. If two of them are deep shots and one gets caught, any one of them could end up in the optimal lineup. Our projections have Pringle with the slight edge over the higher-salary Hardman, making him the top value play of the bunch.

With Smith-Schuster back in the lineup this Sunday, it likely means Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) will move back to his role as a gadget player, instead of the starting slot receiver, a role he played admirably down the stretch for the Steelers. McLoud saw 26 total opportunities in the last three games of the regular season, but failed to top four receptions or 37 yards receiving in any of those contests. In large-field tournaments, players like Zach Gentry ($2,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) or James Washington ($2,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel), who the Steelers reactivated off the COVID-19 list this week, are playable, but likely won’t see more than three targets at the absolute most.

The Bottom Line (FanDuel New York Betting Offer)

While it’s always important to consider strategies to avoid having your lineup duplicated on a one-game slate, this is a classic “don’t overthink things” matchup. Deploying rosters that suggest the underdog will win can often be an intriguing strategy in showdowns, but not here. The Chiefs have their top-two weapons, an improving defense, and the best player on the field in Mahomes. The Steelers have a quarterback ten years past his prime and a suddenly deep, yet unproductive, passing attack that has little to no chance of keeping pace in this contest. Kansas City is about to completely dismantle the Steelers, and there’s little anyone can do to stop it.

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Wild Card Saturday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 42, Steelers 9

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].