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Buccaneers vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football Showdown Game Breakdown & NFL DFS Picks

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Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 6 Thursday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 6 Buccaneers vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football matchup.

Week 6 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

Tom Brady and the NFC South-leading Buccaneers head to Philadelphia this Thursday to take on the Eagles, who pulled a win out of their hats last weekend, stopping a three-game skid. Tampa Bay looked as unstoppable as ever last weekend, doing whatever it wanted offensively against a Miami defense that previously ranked in the top five in PFF’s team coverage grades. Nevertheless, Brady posted his third game of the season with four or more touchdown passes. Despite the Eagles ranking top 12 in the NFL in defensive efficiency, they will have their work cut out for them this Thursday night against the NFC’s top-rated passing attack. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts — missing a key weapon in the passing game in Dallas Goedert — will need to have a nearly flawless game in order for the Eagles to have any chance of keeping pace.

Both Quarterbacks Have Slate-Breaking Ceilings

Hurts has not been a world beater in the passing game, with the Eagles ranking bottom 10 in yards per pass attempt and bottom 15 in points per play. But from a fantasy perspective, his upside as a rusher makes him just as viable in tournaments as Brady, who leads the league in red-zone pass rate. Hurts ranks top three among quarterbacks in carries per game, red-zone carries per game and touchdowns rushing. Both quarterbacks are must-plays in cash games.

Leonard Fournette has Taken Over as the Buccaneers Top Running Back

Fournette played on 62% of the Buccaneers snaps last weekend and commanded 57% of the team’s running back rushes. While Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard remain involved, Fournette has now doubled up Jones in total yards and nearly doubled all other backs in red-zone touches this season. The Buccaneers’ pass-friendly nature at the goal line makes Fournette a thinner play than a typical starting running back on a high-powered offense, but the Eagles have been much more susceptible to opposing running backs rather than receivers. That makes Fournette a viable option in large-field tournaments, even at Captain.

The Four Fantastic Wideouts’ Spread-Out Projected Ownership

Rob Gronkowski is out for yet another week, still recovering from cracked ribs he suffered in Week 3. That makes all three of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown viable options, as the trio should command close to 70% of the targets and 75% of air yards. While it is hard to roster multiple receivers, it looks like it could be advantageous to do so, as Brady does not seem particularly concerned about which one of the three wideouts he is throwing to. The Awesemo projections see Brown as the best value play, with Godwin not far behind. DeVonta Smith has a higher value ranking than Evans, but that is due to Evans’ exorbitant salary. On DraftKings Evans has the lowest value ranking of any player with 10 or more projected fantasy points.

Kenneth Gainwell Continues to See Valuable Opportunity

Gainwell has not played on more than 37% of the Eagles’ snaps in any game this season, but he has run 10-plus routes in two of his last three games and has seen 15 targets over that same span. Gainwell continues to eat away at Miles Sanders’ receiving workload and is the clear option over Sanders in the two-minute drill. While his production is highly variable week to week due to his limited touches, Gainwell has been excellent on a per-touch basis, and of all Eagles projected for 4 or more points, he has the highest value ranking.

Zach Ertz Looks Like a Superb Leverage Play

With Goedert out for Thursday’s contest due to his placement on the COVID-19 list, Ertz should command an every-down role in a likely shootout. With the two tight ends splitting time, both players have averaged between 7.5 and 10 expected fantasy points per game. Should all those expected points condense to one player, as they should this Thursday for Ertz, their 17.2 combined expected fantasy points would rank second among all players on the slate. According to Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool, Ertz appears as an optimal Flex player 13% more often than his current expected ownership suggests.

The Bottom Line

While it is possible this Thursday night is one of Brady’s signature aloof prime time games, the Buccaneers appear nearly invincible in the passing game, even without Gronkowski in the mix. Philadelphia might rank top 10 in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA, but they have already proven susceptible to high-powered offenses. It is easy to imagine the Buccaneers soaring past their implied team total of 29.75 points, a feat they have already accomplished in three of their four wins this season.

Week 6 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Eagles 21


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Take a look at our NFL starting lineups, inactive players and depth charts. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL stats for multiple game slates, head over to NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL DFS stacking.

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected]

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