NFL DFS Picks & Week 9 TNF DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Lineups

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 9 Thursday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 9 Jets vs. Colts Thursday Night Football matchup.

Week 9 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

The Jets picked up their second win of the season on the backs of breakout performances from backup quarterback Mike White and rookie Michael Carter, stunning much of the football world by beating the Bengals 34-31. The Colts are coming off a brutal overtime loss to the AFC South-leading Titans despite starting the game with a 14-0 lead. Indianapolis’ 3-5 record may not seem all that exciting, but in the AFC South it is good enough for second place with a two-game lead over both the Jaguars and Texans. The Colts quietly rank top 15 in per-play efficiency on both sides of the ball and sit a game and a half out of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. As 10-point favorites Thursday, the Colts are expected to take care of business and leap right back into the playoff race.

Carson Wentz’s Value in Tournaments Varies by Platform

On DraftKings Carson Wentz has the second-highest projection of any player on the slate, but at a steep $800 discount from Jonathan Taylor, he has a slate-high 23.3% chance of being the optimal Captain play. On FanDuel, where it is typically more advantageous to roster quarterbacks at the MVP spot, Wentz’s top MVP probability is well over 30%, 7 points higher than any other player, but his leverage score is negative. That is not the case on DraftKings, however, where his leverage score is among the top five players on the slate and the highest among any player over $5,000. Wentz has topped 20 DraftKings fantasy points in three of his last four games.

Most Lineups Should Have At Least One of Pittman and/or Taylor

Michael Pittman is coming off a career-best game in which he saw 15 targets and 128 air yards for 10 catches, 86 yards and two touchdowns. That was good enough for the second-best fantasy output of all wideouts in Week 8. Pittman now has four 20-point performances under his belt this season and has seen 12-plus targets in 50% of his games. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor looks to be coming into his own as a premier running back, currently top 10 in carries, weighted opportunities and red-zone touches, and he ranks second in yards created per touch despite that top-tier volume. Taylor looks like a strong play in cash games and tournaments, and has a positive leverage score on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Taylor’s exorbitant $34 salary on Yahoo makes him a weaker play on that platform, making Pittman the much preferred option, at just $19.

Michael Carter Has Taken Over the Jets Backfield

Michael Carter had seen his snap share and opportunities consistently rise over the first five weeks of the season, but in Week 7 the Jets’ philosophy seems to have shifted toward utilizing Carter as a feature running back. Prior to Week 6, Carter’s season high in opportunities was 16, but he jumped to 20 opportunities in Week 7 and turned in a solid 104 total yards and 16.4 DraftKings points. In Week 8 Carter’s opportunity reached a whole new level, with Mike White preferring to check down consistently. Carter saw a league-high 29 opportunities, including a staggering 14 targets, finishing with the top score of any running back on the Week 8 main slate. That ceiling performance will push up Carter’s ownership, especially on FanDuel where running backs are slightly more valuable. But Carter still has a positive leverage score on that site, as well as DraftKings, where he has the highest leverage score of any Jets player. In fact, he is one of just two Jets skill players with a positive leverage score on the slate.

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Fire Up the Colts Defense and Kicker

DFS fundamentals dictate that ceiling performances for both D/ST and kicker are highly correlated with pregame spread, with the largest percentage of top games coming from heavy home favorites. Favored by a touchdown and a half, the Colts defense and kicker fit the bill as strong process plays. Despite giving up 34 points a week ago, the Colts have improved dramatically on defense over the last few weeks in PFF’s defensive grades, ranking eighth in the NFL heading into the weekend. They are right at league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed and in points allowed per play, but that should be good enough against the Jets backup quarterback. Do not be afraid to play the Colts in lineups with Mike White, who could still hit a ceiling score, while the Colts, at just $5,000 on DraftKings, still appear in the optimal lineup. Colts kicker Michael Badgley has a positive leverage score on both sites, but his $4,400 salary on DraftKings is ultra-appealing. Surprisingly, on DraftKings Badgley has the second-highest leverage score of any player on the slate

Ashton Dulin Looks like a Strong Sub-$4,000 Play

The Colts will be without T.Y. Hilton for this game once again, as Hilton remains in the league’s concussion protocol and has already been ruled out for this week’s game. That means that Zach Pascal will likely start opposite Pittman on the outside, but Ashton Dulin could play on much more than the 48% of snaps he has seen over the last two weeks. Dulin ran a season-high 19 routes in Week 7 and has seen four targets in back-to-back games. Though he has not produced much on that added opportunity, his $200 salary makes him a solid salary-saving option that allows fantasy gamers to jam in multiple premium salary players. Pascal, even at $6,600 on DraftKings, is a decent tournament option, especially having seen 14 looks over the last two games. But Dulin is nearly free and because of that has the highest leverage score of any player on the slate, more than double that of any other player.

The Bottom Line

It was thrilling to see the Jets steal a victory from a quality opponent in Week 7, especially with a backup quarterback at the helm. It would be irresponsible, then, to say the Jets have no chance at winning this game. But it is hard to see lightning striking twice in two weeks for the Jets offense, even against a Colts secondary that has given up massive blow-up games to wideouts in the past, including 30 fantasy points to A.J. Brown a week ago. The Colts strong linebacking corps should be able to slow down rookie Michael Carter and will likely force White to beat them over the top, which he likely will not be able to do. Meanwhile, the Jets still rank 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 31st in points allowed per play over their last three games. This is not a transformed defensive unit, regardless of them doing enough to win a week ago. They are dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offense, which does not bode well for their chances of an upset in this spot. If there ever was a game where the Colts could dominate from start to finish, it is this one.

Week 9 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Colts 27, Jets 23

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].