NFL Prime Time Games: San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs (FREE)

Greetings, Gamers! The Big Game is upon us finally as we wrap up the 2019 NFL season. There are plenty of angles in play for both the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs and we have thoughts on George Kittle, Patrick Mahomes and more for your NFL DFS lineups!

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NFL DFS Picks: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs -1.5/54.5

Technically, Kansas City is the “home” team, so we will start things off with San Francisco. This has been a close line, moving thanks to amounts wagered more than anything else. This is about as close to a pick-’em as we have seen in the Super Bowl in quite some time.

San Francisco 49ers NFL DFS Picks

26.5 implied points

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo has been discussed many times in this space. The key things to know for him is that his 248.6 passing yards per game ranked 17th, but his 27 passing touchdowns were fifth. This is impressive when considering that the 49ers lead the league with 23 rushing touchdowns. They are known more for their defense, but they averaged 29.9 points per game in the regular season which was second to only Baltimore’s 33.2 points per game.

Kansas City was a bottom-five team against opposing signal-callers from a fantasy perspective, but that was because of volume. The Chiefs actually had the sixth-best passing DVOA according to Football Outsiders, so this is not going to be a cake walk for Garoppolo.

Running Back

This has been a tricky situation to get a read on all year. Between in-game injuries and the hot-hand approach, San Francisco had three different running backs top 500 rushing yards. Matt Breida was last year’s key contributor, but he just couldn’t stay healthy in games so Tevin Coleman was brought in to take the lead. He too found it hard to remain healthy which opened the door for fifth-year journeyman Raheem Mostert to get significant work, including a record 220 rushing yards in the NFC Championship game along with four touchdowns. That was particularly wild since the week before in the Divisional Round, it was Coleman who had 105 rushing yards and two scores.

Coleman suffered a dislocated shoulder early in the NFC Championship which moved Mostert into the lead role. The former Falcon is still working through things in a limited fashion and even if he does play on Sunday, he is unlikely to be a full strength.

We can’t forget about Breida who is healthy and has had more time in the system than either of his teammates. All three are decent pass catchers, the main issue is a lack of overall volume and little of it going to the running backs. It will likely take an in-game injury to Mostert for him to see much opportunity, but as I have mentioned, this position seems to excel at getting hurt for the 49ers.

Fullback Kyle Juszscyk is the key to the 49ers running game. However, he had only eight carries for 30 yards during the regular season. He led the backfield with 41 targets for 30 catches, 324 yards and a touchdown, and he has the trust of coach Kyle Shanahan.

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel had an outstanding rookie campaign and he was second to George Kittle in targets, receptions and receiving yards. In the two postseason games he led the team with nine targets for five catches and 88 yards. In their two victories leading to the grand finale, San Francisco tallied 27 targets for 17 catches, 208 yards and a touchdown, which shows the downside risk of looking to their passing game. After Samuel, who also was effective on the ground with 14 carries for 159 yards and three touchdowns, it is a complete guessing game. Kendrick Bourne has the only postseason touchdown and he tied Kittle for the regular season lead with five. Then we have midseason acquisition Emmanuel Sanders who never quite seemed to click with Garoppolo.

Tight end

George Kittle is the de facto WR1 in this system having led the team in all relevant receiving categories during the regular season. We don’t get points for his blocking, but he is one of the best at his position with regards to that skill so he is on the field for most of the snaps. Ross Dwelley is the third tight end and backup fullback, who posted 15 catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets in the regular season. Levine Toilolo is the backup tight end but he spends most of his time as a blocker, seeing just two targets in the regular season.

Defense/Special Teams

San Francisco boasted the second-best overall and passing DVOA and they were 11th against the run. Kansas City allowed four sacks in the final three games of the regular season and their 15 turnovers were the third fewest in the regular season. They ceded just three in their two postseason matchups with one fumble. This unit is in play, but we are looking at an irresistible force versus an immovable object scenario here.

Kansas City Chiefs NFL DFS Picks

28.0 implied points

Quarterback

Once again, Patrick Mahomes was stellar, though injuries kept him from defending his MVP throne against presumptive winner Lamar Jackson. In 14 games, he averaged 287.9 passing yards per game which was seventh in the league and his 26 touchdowns were eighth overall. It is clear that he is finally healthy and mobile. This is a wrinkle that should serve him well on Sunday.

Running Back

Damien Williams had 29 of 30 postseason running back carries for 92 yards and three scores. He also had all 12 targets for seven catches, 65 yards and a touchdown. It will be interesting to see if LeSean McCoy is active for this game, but even if he is, it would take a sentimental Andy Reid moment for him to be of much fantasy value. Darwin Thompson would need an in-game injury to have any relevance with the current workload split.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill is very, very good at his job. It would not be a shock to see him with a carry or two as coach Andy Reid looks to get his best play maker involved early and often. After disappearing for most of the regular season, Sammy Watkins resurfaced in the playoffs, leading the team with 190 yards on a dozen targets. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman can be game breakers, but they are on a team of them and there just is not a lot of volume to go around, even in a pass-happy offense.

Tight End

Similar to his counterpart, Travis Kelce put up numbers for a second straight season that most wide receivers would kill for. He was 11th in targets, eighth in receptions and fourth in receiving yards. Only the five touchdowns were a little disappointing on an otherwise phenomenal season. Blake Bell is on the field a lot, but more as a blocker than anything else. He had a touchdown in the playoffs, but in 15 regular season games. he had 15 targets.

Defense/Special Teams

In the regular season, San Francisco gave up about two sacks and 1.5 turnovers per game. Kansas City averaged about three sacks and 1.5 takeaways per game. If the 49ers can keep the ball on the ground, they will limit the chance for defensive fantasy opportunities. That said, this unit is in play as it just takes one big play for them to be a difference maker.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

Notable Inactives: LeSean McCoy, Dante Pettis, C.J. Beathard, Jeff Wilson Jr and Darwin Thompson are active

NFL DFS Top 10

1. Patrick Mahomes: both DraftKings and FanDuel did a nice job with the top-end pricing, but I still want Mahomes if I am making one team.
2. Damien Williams: with his recent monopoly on the running back opportunities, he is my second-favorite option.
3. George Kittle: if you begin with him as the Captain/MVP, you gain some differentiation on FanDuel and salary cap relief on DraftKings.
4. Deebo Samuel: we are looking for some salary relief and he definitely provides it on FanDuel, with a slighter nod to DraftKings.
5. Raheem Mostert: he will get the first chance to carry the load for the 49ers.
6. Jimmy Garoppolo: during the regular season, he had a lot of touchdown equity. If Kansas City can pull away, he will have to throw.
7. Travis Kelce: current popularity has him as a slight contrarian play, as much as there is one in the top-10 tier anyway.
8. Robbie Gould and Harrison Butker: time and again we have seen even aggressive coaches take the points in the big game.
9. Tyreek Hill: game-breaking upside, volume is questionable in a difficult matchup.
10. Sammy Watkins: was only a factor three times and a ghost in the other 12 games.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Secondary Plays

1. San Francisco D/ST: one of the best units we have seen in the last five years.
2. Emmanuel Sanders: should see between two and four targets.
3. Kansas City D/ST: needs a return touchdown with the 49ers good at protecting their quarterback and the ball.
4. Tevin Coleman: major injury risk and he will be behind Mostert even if he is active.
5. Kendrick Bourne: does just enough and manages to find the end zone every couple games, which keeps him out of the next section.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lottery Ticket

1. Kyle Juszczyk: the key will be for him to score on a wheel route from about 25-30 yards out.
2. Matt Breida: he needs an in-game injury to Mostert or a lucky touchdown carry.
3. Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson: will see a handful of targets between them. Either could score or post a zero, Hardman has been the return man in the playoffs..
4. Darwin Thompson and LeSean McCoy: one of them will be inactive, the other will be unlikely to see a touch.
5. Richie James Jr.: returns punts and kickoffs for San Francisco.
6. Ross Dwelley, Levine Toilolo, Blake Bell: backup tight ends behind the best two tight ends this season.
7. Byron Pringle: he has done it before under the prime time lights, but there are even more ahead of him in the pecking order now.

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Good Luck in tonight’s Showdown Slate NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac