Built similarly to the extremely popular NBA Boom Bust Tool here at Awesemo, the NFL Boom Bust Tool has gained popularity as the most user-friendly way to identify the best (and worst) plays on any given slate. Developed by the data team at Awesemo, including Alex Baker himself, this NFL DFS projections tool makes it simple to identify under-utilized plays for Saturday’s two-game slate — as well highlight which plays are most likely to fail. Simply group players based on their probability of putting up a massive score (boom), the odds of them failing to reach salary-based expectations (bust), and compare those scores to their likelihood of making the optimal lineup. With that process in mind, let’s cover the top player to boom and the most relevant player to bust at the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver positions for Week 18 NFL DFS and fantasy football contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Using this tool as your main NFL DFS projection source is imperative when constructing your NFL DraftKings and NFL FanDuel lineups today.
NFL DFS Projections & Upside Plays for Week 18 Saturday Night Football
Top Three Boom Plays
Darrel Williams – Kansas City Chiefs RB: DraftKings – $5,900 / 69.1% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,000 / 60.1% Ownership
Denver permits 22 fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season while allowing 109.8 rushing yards per game on a 4.4 yard per rush average. Williams has produced 12.5 points per game since Week 13 while accounting for 541 rushing and 422 receiving yards on the season. The Broncos have allowed 68 receptions to running backs this year and give up 9.5 yards per reception, the second-worst in the league. Meanwhile, the former LSU Tiger is averaging 9.6 yards over 44 receptions and has three catches in four of his last five games. He provides a solid floor with touchdown upside notching eight so far this season. Williams is a better play on FanDuel as his leverage score (11.4) leads the slate but remains a top-10 leverage play on DraftKings where his ownership projects incredibly high. As the only player with a higher boom (22.3) than bust (18.5) score, don’t be the one to leave Williams out of your lineup.
Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos WR: DraftKings – $5,100 / 9.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $5,900 / 14.4% Ownership
Projecting as the best leverage play on DraftKings and a top-five for FanDuel, Jeudy enters Saturday’s matchup with less ownership than Courtland Sutton and only slightly more than Tim Patrick. The former first-rounder has led the Broncos in target share on four occasions this season despite only five starts on the year. His 2.63 yards of separation per target rank second in the NFL while providing Drew Lock with a safety blanket when facing pressure. Running over 65% of his snaps from the slot keeps corner’s hands off his release while allowing for additional separation near the red zone. The Chiefs’ pass defense allows 37.5 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers while also ranking 28th in the league by allowing 8.0 fantasy points in the red zone to the position. One of these Denver receivers is going to benefit from this matchup and Jeudy holds the most leverage on this slate. With such low ownership in a game anticipating over 30 pass attempts for Denver, Jeudy’s leverage makes him worth his lower boom score.
Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs WR: DraftKings – $8,000 / 59.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $8,200 / 62.3% Ownership
The ultra-talented speedster out of West Alabama holds the third-highest boom score on the slate and enters this matchup with a Denver secondary missing Patrick Surtain, Ronald Darby, and Kareem Jackson. The Broncos’ defense contained both Travis Kelce and Hill in Week 13 but without crucial contributors will struggle to defend the elite duo. On the season, Denver is especially elite against tight end production so favoring Hill’s game-buster ability makes logical sense. He has averaged 19.1 DraftKings points per game on the season and has 12 double-digit performances. In seven games he amassed 20 points and averaged 32 points in these outings. The Broncos are allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt over the last three games and are caught in a vulnerable situation due to injury. The Chiefs average nearly 40 pass attempts per game and with Hill seeing a 26.4-percent target share there is plenty of opportunity for another boom game.
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Top Three Bust Fades
CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys WR: DraftKings – $6,800 / 45.8% Ownership | FanDuel – $7,400 / 47.9% Ownership
The Dallas-Philadelphia matchup has several fade candidates but Lamb boasts some of the worst leverage on the slate coupled with a bust score of 50.8 on DraftKings and 42.5 on FanDuel. Philadelphia’s elite pass defense has allowed only 4.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks and ranks sixth on the season allowing 6.2. Their secondary is led by Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox while Anthony Harris and K’Von Wallace create a formidable safety duo. Nearly all passing production has come through tight ends against Philadelphia this season as was the case in the first meeting this season. Dalton Schultz finished with Week 3 with six receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns starting the Eagles season of struggles against the position. Lamb was contained to three receptions but was fortunate to bust one for 44 yards helping him to 66 yards on the day. Nearly half the field is owning him but don’t get caught following that trend with such a high bust possibility.
Melvin Gordon – Denver Broncos RB: DraftKings – $5,800 / 9.3% Ownership | FanDuel – $6,000 / 19.7% Ownership
Gordon enters Week 18 on the last year of this contract hoping to prove his value to plenty of running back needy teams on the free-agent market. The former Wisconsin Badger hasn’t helped his fantasy outlook lately, averaging 6.1 points per game over the last three. Kansas City has allowed 24.1 points to opposing running backs on the season and are susceptible through the air and on the ground to the position. However, they have only allowed eight touchdowns to running backs (T2nd) on the season, significantly lowering Gordon’s upside given his touchdown-dependency. The Chiefs are especially stout in the red zone against running backs where Gordon has held a 44-35 advantage in touches with his backfield running mate Javonte Williams.
Demarcus Robinson – Kansas City WR: DraftKings – $3,400 / 10.2% Ownership | FanDuel – $5,200 / 7.3% Ownership
With all of Kansas City’s pass-catchers healthy, Patrick Mahomes elects to distribute the targets to Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and then anyone else, in that order. Hill and Kelce both see north of 20-percent target share while Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle come before Robinson in the pecking order. Robinson has seen around 5% target share steadily throughout the season but doesn’t make enough sense as the fifth-to-sixth option in this passing attack in a matchup with their second-lowest game total of the year.
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