The Week 8 NFL Data Deep Dive goes beyond the box score, looking into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed fantasy football decisions. After games wrap each week, Matt Savoca shows a look behind the curtain to his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday, right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 7 as we look ahead to Week 8 of the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates.
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The NFL DFS Data Deep Dive for Week 8
Team Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- The Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Buccaneers are your early Super Bowl favorites (top right in the chart on the right).
- The Colts are still buoyed (in the expected points chart) by weeks 1-3, particularly in the EPA/Play chart (on the right). It’s been a precipitous fall from the top.
- The Falcons and Jaguars are the most inept teams on a per-play basis. The Cowboys are only where they are from the Dak Prescott weeks.
- The Ravens defense stepped up enormously prior to their bye. They have a top-five defense in expected points allowed per drive.
- The Steelers have been dominant on a per-drive basis on both sides of the ball, but their defense is more efficient than they’re offense.
- The Vikings offense is a curious case. They rank bottom five in expected points per drive, but league average in EPA/play. They’re also one of six NFL teams ranking above average in yards per carry, yards per attempt and points per play (not pictured). Expected points models, as shown here, are much more skeptical of the Vikings than their raw stats.
Team Aggressiveness (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- For the third week in a row, the Seahawks and Bengals remain by far the most aggressive teams in neutral situations. They’ll continue to force tons of shootouts by their style of play.
- The Bills and Eagles remain sneaky aggressive, as do the run-oriented Titans. There’s a reason they’re staying in games this year despite their first loss of the season in week 7.
- Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are two of seven teams with above-average early down passing and above-average early down air yards in neutral situations. They’re both taking a ton of shots offensively, and both veteran quarterbacks are making the most of the opportunities.
- After going more uptempo than they had in recent weeks, the 5-2 Rams move toward the center of the pack, though they appeared on the bottom left of this chart for most of the season.
- New Orleans has zapped their early-down aggressiveness this season. They’re running at an above-average clip and, possibly due to diminished arm strength from Drew Brees, aren’t throwing deep in neutral situations at all compared to the rest of the league. They really need Michael Thomas back, though it appears he’s a longshot to play in week 8.
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Quarterback Efficiency (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- The top-four MVP candidates as of now: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes … and Jared Goff? Goff has been elite from an efficiency standpoint, and the 5-2 Rams deserve more respect than they’re getting despite a nasty week 6 loss to division rival San Francisco.
- Justin Herbert continues to prove he belongs as a starter in the league for years to come. You could make an argument he’s been a top-10 quarterback in per-play efficiency since taking over in week 2. His week 7 fantasy output was certainly at a superstar level.
- Your 1B quarterbacks this year are Josh Allen (who’s looked mediocre over his last three games), Ben Roethlisberger, Kyler Murray, Brees and Ryan Tannehill
- Drew Lock still looks woefully inefficient in his first starts back from a shoulder injury.
- Andy Dalton and Nick Foles have been “Jets and Giants-level” bad since taking over this season. Concussion or not, the Cowboys have serious quarterback questions (they absolutely should be looking to trade for a player like Jameis Winston), as do the 5-2 Bears, who got walloped on Monday night against the Rams.
- Lamar Jackson has been exactly average in neutral situations this year, and that includes his rushing. Though he’s grouped with Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen, his true ability lies well beyond that group. He’s a positive regression candidate for the second half of the season. And Baltimore’s going to need his help, as the AFC North, with the surging Browns and Steelers, looks to be one of the best divisional dogfights of the season.
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Skill Player Opportunities for NFL DFS (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- There’s a new leader in true weighted opportunity share: Washington receiver Terry McLaurin. He’s one of four players (with Davante Adams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown) to command 30% of their team’s true WOPR.
- Robby Anderson is a top-10 wide receiver in usage. The gigantic day receiving may have come from teammate D.J. Moore in week 7, but it’s time to put some respect on Anderson’s name. Woefully underutilized in New York, Anderson is thriving in his new home.
- With a night for the ages in week 7, Tyler Lockett usurps D.K. Metcalf and enters the top 10 in usage among all receivers. Metcalf remains in the top 20.
- A.J. Brown has overtaken all other Titans receivers as the unquestioned primary receiver in Tennessee when he’s on the field.
- Nestled between superstars Allen Robinson and George Kittle is the Eagles’ Travis Fulgham, who is the unquestioned alpha receiver in Philadelphia while the rest of the wideouts and tight ends drop like flies from the Eagles’ lineup.
NFL DFS High-Value Opportunities (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Even with the derailment of the Cowboys offense, Amari Cooper is tied for the overall quality opportunity among all players this season, though that ranking very likely dips before the season is through.
- DeAndre Hopkins, after a spectacular performance against the Seahawks in week 7, is tied with the aforementioned Cooper for most quality looks this season.
- Stefon Diggs is being utilized like a true number-one in the Buffalo offense. He’s going to be a mega-producer on this squad for years to come, though the production wasn’t there against the Jets in week 7.
- Alvin Kamara and Travis Kelce lead the running backs and tight ends in high-value touches, with Ezekiel Elliott directly behind them. With all the uncertainty the NFL brings each season, this one I could have told you before the season started. Elliott is in a more precarious situation than the other two, but all in consistently put in great positions to produce on a weekly basis.
- Some interesting names that creep into the top 40, Jacksonville’s Keelan Cole, Chicago’s Jimmy Graham and A.J. Brown (in the chart on the right), who has now received over 20% of the team’s high-value looks since returning from injury three weeks ago.
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Condensed Passing Offenses for NFL DFS Stacks (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Anderson and Moore sit atop the “two-player” charts (on the left) for the second week in a row. With Christian McCaffrey angling to play in week 8, it looks like the end of the line for backup Mike Davis, who performed admirably (and received Alvin Kamara-level receiving work) in McCaffrey’s stead.
- In spite of Lockett commanding basically every target from Seattle in week 7, Metcalf and Lockett still combine to be top three among receiver stacks in usage this season, behind only the aforementioned Panthers and the Vikings duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
- The five teams with two players commanding half their squads’ true WOPR: The Panthers, Vikings, Seahawks, Ravens and Washington Football team. The latter two, particularly Washington, are most surprising. Logan Thomas is getting a ton of usage on a very bad team.
- With the signing of Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers, who are already one of the least consolidated passing games, are likely to spread the ball out even more. Brady will be a more intriguing fantasy option, but predicting which receiver or tight end in Tampa will receive a majority of the work is a much more difficult task.
- Damiere Byrd has quietly overtaken N’Keal Harry in New England as the secondary receiver. The Patriots are middle of the pack in wideout consolidation, with Julian Edelman still earning the most targets and air yards, but when Cam Newton isn’t looking for the veteran Edelman, he’s sought out Byrd first.
- The Lions’ targets are finally consolidating around Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson, as they always should have. They still rank in the bottom-third of the league in both two-player and three-player offensive consolidation ranks.
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NFL DFS Bell Cow Backs (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- Goodbye for now, Mike Davis. His elusiveness on over 100 touches was significantly better than the historical trendline for running backs. Unironically, McCaffrey has some big shoes to fill.
- Antonio Gibson’s monster day against the Cowboys solidifies his standing in the upper-echelon of NFL backs this season.
- James Robinson continues to lie within the expected range for elusiveness based on his touch count, but given the fact that no one knew his name prior to the August release of Leonard Fournette, it’s been one of the most successful running back debuts in recent memory. He was a steal at just 2% ownership on the main slate in week 7.
- Fournette out-snapped and out-touched Ronald Jones in week 7, which could spell the end of Jones’ time separated from the pack in this chart.
- Todd Gurley, in spite of his inability to keep his momentum from propelling his body into the end zone (which subsequently gave the Lions enough time to drive down the field an win), continues to impress from an elusiveness standpoint. He’s now well above the historical trendline on nearly 150 touches this season.
- Your two “mega-bell cows:” Derrick Henry, who is still more elusive than one would expect based on his touch-total (and his size), and Elliott, who is at risk of falling into the “underperformer” zone if he underwhelms in week 8.
PFF Grade Net Advantages (Click Graph to Enlarge)
- All aboard the Browns passing attack this week! With Odell Beckham (knee) out for the year, the passing offense should consolidate around Jarvis Landry and the tight ends Harrison Bryant, David Njoku and most of all Austin Hooper, when he returns from an emergency appendectomy.
- Rodgers to Adams as a stack will be heavily owned (once again) against the Vikings, and probably very worth it too. They’re in yet another smash spot in week 8.
- The Rams have a great shot at smashing the Dolphins on Sunday. They have a huge advantage in the run game, in overall grades, and in the net composite grade, indicating their passing attack is also in a strong spot. It’s all systems go for the Rams this Sunday.
- The Tampa Bay defense is your unquestioned top defense of the week, and it’s not close. What a bummer (or a blessing, depending on how you see it) that the game’s not on the main slate. The Giants are going to get wrecked.
- Denver versus the Chargers looks like a possible stay-away game, with both offenses in trouble against their opponent’s respective defenses. The Chargers are at a disadvantage in passing grades, offensive grades, run blocking grades, and rushing grades. Despite Herbert’s elevated play, this looks like tough Sunday for the Chargers.
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