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Showdown Strategy: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Picks | Colts vs. Titans

Kyle Dvorchak



Daily fantasy football picks week 10 draftkings fanduel

The Tennessee Titans host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 of Thursday Night Football. The Colts are favored by a point and the game has a 48.5-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy football, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All daily fantasy football picks and showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Week 10 Thursday Night Football  DraftKings + FanDuel | Colts vs. Titans

Daily Fantasy Football Showdown Captain

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry remains one of the most-used backs in the league, but he is still one-dimensional. Despite averaging 22.8 carries per game, he has one game of more than two catches and it came in Week 1. Recently, Henry has also ceded rushing work to other backs. D’Onta Foreman and Jeremy McNichols have combined for 16 rushes in the past two games. Henry is going to be one of the two most popular plays at Captain on DraftKings and FanDuel, and his 105.4 rushing yards per game largely justify that. However, in massive tournaments, there’s a solid argument for fading Henry because of his lack of involvement in the passing game and the newfound roles of Foreman and McNichols.

Ryan Tannehill

After posting monstrous efficiency numbers in his Titans debut last year, Ryan Tannehill has largely been able to sustain those numbers into the 2020 season. He has a 7.5% touchdown rate and an 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt. Both marks are top-five in the league. Tannehill has mostly thrown his touchdowns to two players, but there are five different Titans with at least 30 targets and none over 50. This gives him an out to beat his top pass catcher in scoring on any given game as long as the touchdowns get dispersed more evenly.

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A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown is one of the two pass catchers to bring down six of those scores. He has seen at least seven targets in every game he has played in this year and has scored in all but one contest. Brown has given up work to Corey Davis in some games, but Week 9 was a return to form with nine targets, four catches, 101 yards and a score. The rest of his team combined for 14 targets. Brown is the ideal leverage play off Henry. Because this game expects to have a decent amount of touchdowns scored based on the 48.5-point total, Brown will need to find the end zone at least once to make the optimal Captain spot on DraftKings and FanDuel. That likely necessitates that he is played with his quarterback in all but the largest of tournaments.

Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins

Jonathan Taylor recorded a career-low number of carries last week, but head coach Frank Reich attributed that to the negative game script his team faced versus Baltimore. The Colts are slightly favored in this game, but Jordan Wilkins remains an issue for Taylor. Wilkins has out-touched Taylor 34-to-21 over the past two weeks, but the team spent a second-round pick on Taylor. Both backs project for nonexistent ownership at Captain in an apparent case of decision by indecision. We have the two projected within a point of each other, but Wilkins is only $8,100 at Captain. If the Colts cover the spread and employ a run-heavy approach, either of their backs could enter the optimal lineup as the Captain with virtually no ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Daily Fantasy Football Showdown Flex Considerations

Philip Rivers

Before last week, Philip Rivers was on a two-game streak of triple-score games. He hadn’t thrown multiple touchdowns in a game yet and didn’t find the end zone once last week either. Rivers has topped 300 yards twice and is only averaging 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt. Because he’s a starting quarterback and only the fourth-highest priced player on the slate, Rivers is still palatable. His lack of big games simply relegates him to a Flex role.

Corey Davis

Davis had played three games with Brown on the field this season heading into last week and saw more targets in all three games. That was not the case versus Chicago, as he was only targeted three times and did not record a catch. With two 100-yard games and three touchdowns on the year, Davis is a volatile receiver best-used in large tournaments. If using him and Brown in the same lineup, Tannehill needs to be in the Flex on FanDuel and DraftKings, and should get strong consideration at Captain.

Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith is the other Titans receiver with six touchdown receptions, but unlike Brown, he only has three games of seven or more targets. He hasn’t caught more than two passes in a game since Week 5. Smith will be modestly popular in the Flex and warrants fade consideration in large tournaments because of his lack of volume.

Colts Receivers

T.Y. Hilton is set to return to the lineup tonight but has been dreadfully ineffective this year. He is averaging 6.4 yards per target and hasn’t hit 70 yards or scored once. Still, he has at least five targets in as many games this year, plus games of nine and 10 targets. Hilton is a solid bet on volume mattering more than efficiency, which tends to ebb and flow over the course of a season. Zach Pascal leads Indianapolis in targets, but Hilton was absent from the past game and a half. He figures to resume a No. 2 role to Hilton this week. Michael Pittman was selected by the Colts at the top of the second round this year and was on track to take over a significant role before suffering a calf injury. In the games he has topped 40 snaps, Pittman has averaged 5.7 targets per game (three games). Hilton is the favorite to lead this team in targets, with Pittman ($4,400) serving as the best value.

Nyheim Hines

Nyheim Hines doesn’t offer much as a runner, but he does see consistent receiving work. He’s averaging 3.5 receptions per game and has three scores through the air alone. Having two backs that can handle the bulk of the carries ahead of him caps Hines’ upside and makes him a Flex-only play.

Defense and Kicker

The Colts have a marginally higher implied team total and are attempting 2.4 field goals per game, tied for the fifth-highest in the league. Their kicker, Rodrigo Blankenship gets the nod between him and Stephen Gostkowski. The Titan’s run-heavy approach and efficient passing game limit the mistakes they make and the overall dropback volume that defenses get against them. Rivers has a league-low 2.5% sack rate, which makes it difficult to look to the Tennessee defense as well. However, he has averaged nearly an interception per game this year.

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Lower-Owned Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Kalif Raymond

Adam Humphries is out, leaving Kalif Raymond as the No. 3 receiver for the Titans. He has played 38 snaps in the past two weeks and has one target. His 18.4 aDOT makes it so that all he needs is one target to break the slate, but his odds of getting even a single look in the passing game aren’t great.

Anthony Firkser

Anthony Firkser saw six targets last week and has routinely stolen touchdowns from Smith with Tannehill under center. His $2,200 cost higher than usual, but he’s still in play because he nearly splits work with Smith.

Colts Tight Ends

The Colts are going to be without Jack Doyle this week, but neither of their two tight ends separated themselves with Doyle out last game. Mo Alie-Cox saw four targets to Trey Burton‘s three. Burton ran five more routes than Alie-Cox and should still be viewed as the primary pass-catching tight end.

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.