The upstart Panthers lost a nail-biter in Week 1 and now head to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team desperate to avoid slipping to 0-2 and to maintain their Super Bowl aspirations. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Panthers – Buccaneers.
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Carolina Panthers (19.6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Breakdown
At first glance, this matchup appears to be the ultimate get-right game for Tom Brady. The Panthers’ defense was atrocious in Week 1, giving up a top-10 performance (in terms of per-drive efficiency) to Derek Carr and allowing second-year running back Josh Jacobs to scamper to a career-high three touchdowns. It’s certainly an opportune moment for the Buccaneers, who severely disappointed in Week 1, finishing with the fourth-worst net expected points per drive in the entire NFL. Brady seemed out of sorts and out of sync with his receivers, a strange sight for fans used to the methodical, mistake-free Brady of yesteryear.
One positive development: The Bucs appear ready to be one of the most uptempo teams in the league, finishing Week 1 with the sixth-fastest pace of play. In spite of playing somewhat conservatively (16th in true neutral early-down pass rate), the accelerated pace should still translate to plenty of pass volume for the Tampa Bay pass catchers. Much to the chagrin of fantasy football players, however, Brady appears primed to spread the ball out amongst his receiving options.
Chris Godwin, who’s now in the concussion protocol and is questionable for Week 2, led the Bucs in weighted opportunity share last Sunday, followed by O.J. Howard and Scott Miller. Only Godwin saw more than 20% of the team’s share of weighted opportunity (WOPR). Evans, held catch-less for most of the day, found the end zone and can hopefully be more productive against a Carolina secondary who does not possess a cornerback in the same stratosphere as his Week 1 matchup, Marshon Lattimore. This passing game is still evolving and may have significant variance week to week. So far, though, it seems that it will be difficult for either Mike Evans or Godwin to put up the consistent, gigantic fantasy totals we are seeing from them.
In terms of high-value opportunities (targets and goal-line work), Ronald Jones is, at least for now, the back to own in Tampa Bay. His two goal-line carries and three targets are promising for what appears to be a backfield trending towards a 50-50 split. Leonard Fournette was targeted once but not used at all near the goal-line. Especially when one factors in the likelihood of Bruce Arians allowing Brady to throw in goal-to-go situations, unless Fournette is handed the reins to the backfield, or there’s an injury that shakes up the depth chart, he is a disappointing low-floor, low-ceiling option in fantasy football.
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Carolina Panthers Breakdown
The Panthers lost Sunday but entered a markedly new offensive era. Teddy Bridgewater threw 34 times in their Week 1 loss. Carolina ranked ninth in Week 1 in true neutral early-down pass rate, indicating they plan on being a pass-heavy team regardless of situation this season. He also ensured that the big-four play makers in the Carolina offense all got their looks. Free agent acquisition Robby Anderson led the way with the most targets, receiving yards and a long touchdown to boot. But D.J. Moore tied Anderson in targets, nearly catching a touchdown himself, and commanded slightly more of the team’s share of weighted opportunity. He’s still the main wide receiver in this offense, but the emergence of Anderson, along with Curtis Samuel (eight targets) and of course Christian McCaffrey (four targets and four goal-line rushes), this offense has the necessary weapons to keep pace in even the most epic shootouts.
And yes, there will be more shootouts. This Panthers defense looks like a unit that will let their opponent put up points week in and week out. Week 2 isn’t an exception.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 27
Alternative scenario: The Panthers are the more cohesive team Sunday. Brady, missing Godwin and with Evans still ailing, can’t get anything rolling, turning it over twice in the process. Panthers 24, Buccaneers 17
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