A priced-up Michael Thomas and three different games with implied total highlight the early impressions of the Week 11 NFL DFS Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We don’t have much value yet, but that may shape up as injuries pour in over the next few days. Josh Jacobs is in a nice spot at a reasonable price up against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Need your NFL DFS Fix? Spags and Loughy go over their first look at ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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The DraftKings and FanDuel First Look
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
- Pay up options don’t look as juicy as last week. Lamar Jackson is the most expensive QB on the slate, and rightly so. The Texans haven’t allowed much on the ground to opposing QBs, but that’s more a product of who they’ve played than anything.
- Drew Brees looks like he’s in the best spot on the slate with, up the Buccaneers, but then you’d likely have to pay up for an overpriced Michael Thomas for the most expensive stack on the slate. That should reduce ownership.
- As mentioned below, Kyle Allen is just too cheap on DraftKings. Both Allen and his top two targets will likely end up chalkier than they should this week in a great spot against the Falcons. Our ownership just came out and this Allen misprice isn’t catching anyone off guard.
- Throwing out a low-owned contrarian stack: Jeff Driskel + Marvin Jones + Kenny Golladay with a Zeke run back. Driskel, surprisingly, also has speed and rushing upside. He ran a 4.5 40.
NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
- Damn, that Michael Thomas price bump. He is almost $10k on DraftKings, which makes almost no sense considering he was $8,300 last week. Outside of Antonio Brown three years ago, no receiver is worth that. Perhaps though, this ends up as a pay-up to be contrarian spot. We’ll have to wait and see how much value opens up on the rest of the slate. On FanDuel Thomas more reasonably priced at 9k a makes for a nice option against the pass-funnel Buccaneers this week, in a possible shootout with the highest implied total on the slate.
- If you’re looking for a cheap stack with upside, Kyle Allen and the Carolina Panthers are hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are moderately priced on DraftKings and FanDuel and the Falcons rank 32nd and 30th in DVOA against opposing WR1s and WR2s respectively. With everyone rushing to roster Christian McCaffrey, this makes for a nice pivot. Although the Falcons have been bad against RBs this season, after a defensive re-design, they are no longer the flow chart matchup for opposing pass-catching backs. The Falcons rank 2nd in the NFL in targets and receptions allowed to enemy backs.
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NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
- We’ve been waiting for the Ezekiel Elliott smash game for, ohh, 10 weeks or so now and it just hasn’t come. If a Week 11 matchup against the Matt Stafford-less Detroit Lions and their banged up defensive line doesn’t do it, we might not see it this year. The Lions are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs in the NFL this season and they rank 23rd in DVOA. It’ll be interesting to see if his lack of targets in the passing game are a trend or an aberration.
- Ready for a Josh Jacobs chalk-fest? $6,900 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank second last in points allowed to enemy backs. The Raiders, if you can believe it, are 10.5 home favorites in this one. Everything is pointing to this being a great play and we’re expecting Jacobs ownership to be in the 30-35% range.
- Falcons new starting running back Brian Hill was priced up a bit on DraftKings ($4800) and a lot on FanDuel ($5,900). Carolina has been dreadful against the run this year, with one of the most pronounced run-funnel defences in the NFL. They’re 32nd in Run DVOA and 3rd against the pass. Not sure I’d get there on FanDuel, but he’s approach free square status on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Picks: Tight End
- Another rough TE week, especially if both George Kittle and Austin Hooper are out. Bet on Darren Waller shaping up as the chalk. The Bengals have been downright terrible against opposing TEs this season, ranking 31st in DVOA against the position and 19th in fantasy points allowed. Waller has cooled of late, with just 100 yards receiving over his past three games, but there’s no reason to think he can’t return to his early season form. Outside of the Raiders matchup against the Lions, the targets have still been there.
- Is OJ Howard back? Maybe. He finished with a season-high 7-47 line against the flow-chart Arizona Cardinals. He also played on 99% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps and compiled a season high in routes run. I’m getting in early here and hoping we’re going to start seeing the Howard most of us drafted in the 4th round of our season-longs.
