The NFL season continues to Week 14 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we will go over some of the best Week 14 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL First Look: Week 14 NFL DFS Picks
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen, BUF vs. TB ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
One of the premier shootouts of the week, the Bills take on the Buccaneers as 3-point underdogs in a game with a 52.5-point total. Coming out of their bye, Buffalo’s most recent game ended in a 31-6 victory over New Orleans on Thanksgiving. While Josh Allen has taken a slight step back from his historic 2020 numbers, he is still completing 66.8% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt. This comes with the same elite ceiling, evidenced by Allen’s four games over 300 yards passing. Tom Brady also has an elite ceiling on the other side of this game, but Allen’s dual threat ability also gives him some safety. Allen currently averages 34.8 rushing yards per game, with three additional scores on the ground. As for matchup, Tampa Bay plays solid defense overall, but the best way to attack them is through the air. They allow 248.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 20th in the NFL. Getting pieces of this projected shootout should be a priority in DFS this week.
Dak Prescott, DAL vs. WAS ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Facing Washington, the Cowboys enter Week 14 as 5-point favorites in a game with a 49-point total. Dak Prescott has played well this season, completing 69% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. Prescott has displayed his ceiling on multiple occasions with four games above 300 yards passing and another at 296. Improving matters further, Prescott will finally play with a fully healthy supporting cast. Michael Gallup spent time on injured reserve already this year and even Amari Cooper played a limited role last week as he recovers from COVID-19. Washington Allows 263.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Affordable across the industry, Prescott remains a solid mid-priced option at the quarterback position here.
Derek Carr, LV vs. KC ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
In the second premier shootout on the main slate, Las Vegas draws Kansas City as 10-point underdogs in a game with a 52.5-point total. Despite playing with a questionable supporting cast, Derek Carr continues to complete 67.8% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. Often battling negative game script, Carr already has six games above 300 yards passing. In fact, Carr averages 305.3 passing yards per game, giving him one of the best floors among quarterbacks. Working in Carr’s favor, Kansas City is another premier pass funnel defense on this slate. The Chiefs allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 27th in the NFL. While Carr does not have the name recognition of some other signal callers, he actually has as solid floor/ceiling combination in this spot.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs, LV vs. KC ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Las Vegas is in a potential shootout in Week 14 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs currently allow 4.7 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 30th in the NFL. However, even more important than the matchup, Josh Jacobs saw an increase in volume in Week 13. With Kenyan Drake going down due to injury, Jacobs caught nine targets for 38 yards in the pass game. Jacobs retained his early-down role as well, carrying the ball 13 times for 52 yards and a score. With the running back room thinning in Las Vegas, the Raiders may be forced to use Jacobs as their primary pass catching back in coming weeks. Despite the spread, Jacobs is still a strong consideration here.
Elijah Mitchell, SF vs. CIN ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
Elijah Mitchell has run away with San Francisco’s lead running back job. Even with Jamycal Hasty healthy, Mitchell still handled 22 carries on 84.5% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps. Importantly, he retained pass game work, catching three targets for 18 yards. This week, the 49ers opened in a pick-’em spot against the Cincinnati Bengals in a game with a 47.5-point total. The Bengals play decent run defense overall, but Mitchell’s volume down the stretch has been too good to ignore. At this point in the week, very few value running backs exist, making Mitchell a solid price-adjusted play.
Javonte Williams, DET vs. DEN ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Javonte Williams could be one of the premier values of the slate.Melvin Gordon missed Week 13 with an injury and looks questionable at best to play this week. Without Gordon, Williams turned 23 carries into 102 rushing yards, while catching six of nine targets for another 76 yards and a score. One of the 2021 Draft’s top running back prospects, Williams now draws a dream matchup against the putrid Detroit Lions’ defense. Denver is currently a 7-point favorite, giving Williams potential positive game script to solidify his workload. If Gordon misses again, expect Williams to be among the best plays of the Week 14 DFS slate.
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Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase, SF vs. CIN ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
Ja’Marr Chase took a slight backseat to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in Week 13. Even in a down game, Chase still secured five of eight targets for 52 yards. On the year, Chase has a 24.2% target share and 37.8% air yards share in Cincinnati’s offense. Also possessing elite big play ability, Chase is the perfect bounce back target for a potential shootout against San Francisco. The 49ers have played decent pass defense this year, but Chase’s ability to overcome tough matchups makes him a strong play in GPPs. this week. With people potentially returning to Higgins, pivoting to Chase could make sense in large field tournaments.
Mike Evans, BUF vs. TB ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
A similar play from a game theory perspective, Mike Evans took a slight backseat to Chris Godwin in Week 13. While Godwin’s 17 targets catch the eye, Evans quietly caught seven of 10 targets for 99 receiving yards himself. With Tampa Bay passing well above expectation and scoring the most points in the league on a per game basis, Evans always has case to enter DFS lineups. However, Week 14 bolsters that case with a shootout on deck against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills possess one of the top pass defenses in the country but lost Tre’Davious White to a season-ending injury. With an enormous total here, Evans remains a solid DFS play across formats.
Amari Cooper, DAL vs. WAS ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Dallas stacks look solid behind a 27-point team total with Prescott. While CeeDee Lamb is a premier stacking option, Amari Cooper enters a bounce back spot after playing limited snaps last week. Now another week removed from his battle with Covid-19, Cooper should start looking more like the elite receiver from earlier this year. Additionally, Cooper’s price has fallen with his recent cold streak. On the year, Cooper still boasts an 18.4% target share and a 26% air yards share in the Dallas offense. On a slate with tight pricing, Cooper makes sense as a mid-range receiver play here.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, SF vs. CIN ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
With Deebo Samuel not expected back for Week 14, George Kittle should again operate as San Francisco’s top receiver. Last week, Kittle caught nine of 12 targets for a hyper-efficient 181 receiving yards and two touchdowns. While some efficiency regression should be expected, Kittle should continue to operate in a voluminous role without Samuel. The Bengals play middling tight end defense, but Kittle creates unique mismatches that render him matchup proof. With this game looking desirable in stacks, Kittle can be targeted even at an elevated price.
John Bates, DAL vs. WAS ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
Unfortunately for Washington, Logan Thomas tore his ACL in Week 13. With Ricky Seals-Jones inactive, rookie John Bates again filled the tight end position. Bates caught three of four targets for 42 yards with Thomas going down and could function as the every-down tight end moving forward. Washington has shown a tendency to play one tight end for a majority of the snaps this season, which occurred with Bates in Week 11 where he played 99% of the snaps. While Seals-Jones could play a role, it remains possible that Bates simply eclipsed him on the depth chart. This situation requires some monitoring throughout the week, but Bates could become a value tight end.
James O’Shaughnessy, JAX vs. TEN ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
James O’Shaughnessy continues to benefit from an injury to Dan Arnold. Without Arnold in Week 13, O’Shaughnessy played on 39 of 59 offensive snaps, and led the team with six targets. O’Shaughnessy played reasonably well on this volume too, catching three of his targets for 29 yards. This is now two straight weeks where O’Shaughnessy played a major role for the Jacksonville offense. While the Jaguars offense lacks efficiency overall, their constant negative game script leads to garbage time volume for the tight end position. Coming in at a cheap price, O’Shaughnessy is the preferred punt option at the tight end position early in the week.
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