From the Slot: Week 8 NFL Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft

Week 8 of the NFL season is upon us and that means it’s time for some FREE NFL DFS Picks from Awesemo’s premium grades and values, for your daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, including Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas at home against the Arizona Cardinals.

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Don’t forget to check out On the Contrary on Saturday, with special guest Josh Hermsmeyer from Establish the Run joining Chris Spags and Alex “Awesemo” Baker.

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NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback

Deshaun Watson: Grades: A, Values: A If you have a chance to check out our new NFL Expert survey, you’ll notice our touts seem to have reached an almost consensus on the Watson-led Houston Texans stack this weekend. The Texans are essentially tied for the second highest team total on the slate at 29 points with a home matchup against the Oakland Raiders on the horizon. Yes, those same Raiders that gave up six total touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers last week. With Will Fuller out, this has the makings of a potentially concentrated and decently valued stack. DeAndre Hopkins should get the lion’s share of targets, but moderately priced Kenny Stills has been an integral part of this offense when Fuller has been absent.

The Raiders are allowing the third-most points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks this season, behind the lowly Dolphins and Falcons. Additionally, they have a 39.4 PFF coverage grade (31st) and a pass-funnel defense that ranks 10th against the run and 29th against the pass, according to Football Outsiders. It’s looking like Watson will be the most owned quarterbck of the slate, so find your pivots elsewhere if rostering. Kenny Stills and DeAndre Hopkins are also between 15-20% on most sites.

NFL DFS Picks: Running Back

Alvin Kamara: Grades: A, Values: A or Latavius Murray

Likely priced down because of an ankle-knee that kept him out of last week’s matchup against the Chicago Bears, Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week’s tilt against the Arizona Cardinals, and likely a true game-time decision. If he is able to go, I’m going to employ the Adam ‘ShipMyMoney’ Scherer NFL DFS strategy and roster him anyways and little to no ownership. The thinking: that his injury status will make DFSers afraid to play him, but if the Saints have cleared him, there’s a likelihood that he’ll be a full-go. Of course we’ll have to wait and see what the injury reports are saying regarding Alvin Kamara’s status come Sunday morning.

And if Kamara is out, the natural pivot to a much cheaper Latavius Murray makes sense. Murray dominated the Bears last week with 27 carries for 120 yards and 2 TDs. His 83% snap count ranked 5th among Week 7 running backs.

Though Arizona has only given up the seventh-least amount of fantasy points to opposing backs this year, they rank 31st in DVOA against the position, and of course, opposing teams always get the benefit of extra snaps when facing the high paced Cardinals offense.

NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas: Grades: A, Values: A

All the Saints! On DraftKings and FanDuel, Michael Thomas is the lone wide receiver with an A grade in both points and value, with the New Orleans Saints projected for a slate-high 30.25 points at home against the Arizona Cardinals. And you likely won’t have to worry about shadow coverage from Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson, who lined up out wide on 61 of 64 snaps last week, while Thomas, for his part, runs in the slot 15-20% of the time. Even if Thomas does get the shadow treatment, volume always trumps matchup. Since Week 5, Thomas is third in the NFL with 24 targets and second in catch rate at 82%.

NFL DFS Picks Tight End

Zach Ertz: DraftKings/FantasyDraft: Grades: B, Values: B; Yahoo: A, B; FanDuel: A, C

We’re seeing some wide pricing discrepancies across the industry for Zach Ertz in what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Philadelphia Eagles. On Yahoo, he’s the best tight end value of the slate at just $17, so it’ll be hard to get away from him. On other sites, pepper him in as you see fit. Though the Bills pass defense is as stingy as it gets, they have been mediocre at defending the tight end position this year, ranking 14th in DVOA, 18th against passes directed towards the middle of the field and 25th in deep mid-field passes. Yes, they have allowed the third-fewest points to tight ends, but they haven’t exactly played a murder’s row thus far.

With Buffalo able to shut down Philly’s receivers, that should send targets Ertz’s way.

Contrarian Stack

With Ryan Tannehill at 5%, and Corey Davis at 6% and A.J. Brown at 7% projected ownership, the trio will likely come in at 1-2% in GPPs. Other than the ownership, there’s a lot to like. First, the price points on all three are low—Tannehill is one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate. Second, Tampa runs the most pronounced pass-funnel defense in the NFL, ranking first in DVOA against the run and 25th against the pass. All signs point to Tennessee having to throw the ball in this one.

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