For all the high-flying, motion-laden trends that permeate football in this day and age, the game at its heart still hinges heavily on the battles up the middle. Offensive line vs. defensive line play can determine your fantasy football matchups and decide who wins millions of dollars each week, yet very few fantasy sites talk about it. As such, every week of the NFL season, Sam Smith will present fantasy plays to make for that week based on advantage in the trenches. This week, he is again trying to run the ownership gamut with chalk and fliers alike. So let’s explore NFL DFS picks for Week 1 on DraftKings and FanDuel from Aaron Jones to Ben Roethlisberger.
Colts vs. Jaguars – Marlon Mack
I’m going to go ahead and let you in on some insider info: The Colts will be a regular in this column all season as long as their front five stays relatively healthy. Four of their five starters posted run blocking grades over 70 last year, and three (Quenton Nelson, Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith) ranked in the top 15 of PFF’s highest-graded linemen. What’s more, Indianapolis is returning all five starters. The caveat of health is important, and it is worth mentioning this week. Both Nelson and Castonzo are listed as questionable, but Frank Reich downplayed the severity of their injuries, so it’s fair to assume both will play.
And just as we will be targeting the Colts a lot this year, we will equally be targeting Jaguars opponents. Jacksonville has probably the least-equipped roster in the league from a talent perspective, largely due to shipping off every good player on their defense. They have only one player coming back who played at least 250 run snaps — Abry Jones — and he posted a run stop rate of just 5.4%. Alongside him will be 2018 first-rounder Taven Bryan, who has played reasonably well but does not have the sample size yet to determine his value yet. Josh Allen is the one true asset to their front seven, but as a somewhat undersized edge, his run-stopping prowess can be neutralized by strong tackle play, which the Colts have. Unless he and Bryan take dramatic leaps, the Jaguars will be this column’s most targetable mismatch.
The question for the 2020 Colts will be who most benefits from the line advantage? Philip Rivers is one obvious choice since he has finished all but two seasons since 2007 in the bottom half of the league in percentage of dropbacks kept clean. Now with a great o-line, Rivers in theory should tick up quite a bit from his poor 2019. But because of his age and wont to take risks, I am staying away from Rivers until he get a few Colts games under his belt.
Instead, the run mismatch up front seems more viable this week. Like most, I assume Jonathan Taylor will eventually get more looks than Marlon Mack. I do not, however, believe that will happen this week. Mack is the starter on the depth chart and proved last year that he can put up good fantasy numbers despite being a no-show in the passing game. At spell back pricing, he has serious upside this week.
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Packers vs. Washington – Aaron Jones
Putting aside Danielle Hunter‘s stint on IR, this Vikings front looked to be a bit suspect against the run even with full health. Hunter is strong in run defense, but Yannick Ngakoue has been extremely suspect in that area his entire career. His reputation as a potent pass rusher has masked the fact that he is consistently washed out of plays. Such is the double-edged sword of being a 250-pound speed rusher. Now with Hunter out at least a handful of games, the Vikings have to turn to Ifeadi Odenigbo, another pass rush specialist with middling run metrics. In the past, their third end was Stephen Weatherly, an excellent run defender and mediocre pass rusher, but he is now in Carolina. In short, Green Bay’s outside zone runs are going to have lanes.
But the edge is not really the greatest concern for Minnesota — they simply do not have good defensive tackles. Their long-time run-stuffing nose, Linval Joseph, is gone. Jaleel Johnson and Shamar Stephen are the starters inside, both of who posted run stop rates of 5% and below. Behind them on the depth chart are youngsters Hercules Mata’afa and Armon Watts, who, while enticing prospects, have minimal experience. The only saving grace up the middle for the Vikings is their linebacker duo of Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, one of the best in the league.
As for the Packers across from them, there is really nothing not to like up front. Green Bay reputes as more of a pass-blocking giant, but their line was solid last year in run blocking as well, and they return basically the same group. The one question mark will be whether Billy Turner or Ricky Wagner starts at right tackle Sunday. Turner was a better run blocker last year and is listed as the starter on the depth chart, but Wagner played 753 snaps for Detroit in 2019, so he is capable if Turner cannot go. All told, last year Green Bay ranked eighth in run blocking according to PFF and fifth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.
Green Bay’s offense is now running-centric, at least more than other teams with good quarterbacks, so volume and efficiency should be high against Minnesota. Aaron Jones looks primed for a big game, and he is not priced among the most expensive backs this week.
Monday Night Bonus: Steelers vs. Giants – Ben Roethlisberger + Any Steelers Receiver
What’s better than targeting a top-five pass-blocking team against a bottom-10 pass rush? How about targeting that group against potentially one of the worst secondaries in football? Everything seems to line up this week for Pittsburgh’s passing game.
The Giants did something really cool the last few years. Instead of building a defensive line based around pass rushing prowess like most teams do, they acquired a bunch of run-stuffing tackles with little pass-rush ability in the hope of turning them into pressure machines. Lo and behold, Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill, while strong against the run (sixth by PFF run defense grade), combined for 108 pressures in 2019. The onus of consistent pass rush fell entirely on edge linebacker Markus Golden. And he had a good season with 64 pressures of his own, but as luck would have it, Golden is questionable and may not start even if he is cleared.
The Steelers have some injuries of their own with All-Pro guard David DeCastro potentially missing. But the Giants’ pass-rush threat will not come from inside, and Pittsburgh has fairly strong tackle play to counter the Giants speedy edge rushers. In 2018, Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yards from a clean pocket and was second in touchdowns, so the numbers suggest he will produce so long as he has time to throw. Stack him with any one or multiple of the Steelers’ main three receivers and reap the rewards Monday night.
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