Week 11 has brought out the injury bug, leaving us with some key decisions to make for our NFL DFS lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft. With Devonta Freeman ruled out, we are looking at MEGA-chalk Brian Hill this week for the Falcons, up against the Carolina Panthers who rank dead last in run DVOA this season. Adam Pfeifer has some pivots off the injuries for your NFL DFS Lineups.
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George Kittle doubtful, Emmanuel Sanders questionable
The 49ers could be without their top two pass-catchers for Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. Kittle didn’t play last Monday night with a lingering knee injury and as a result, Ross Dwelley came in and was heavily involved, playing 92 percent of the snaps and seeing seven targets. The matchup is obviously elite, as no team has allowed more touchdowns (10) or fantasy points per game (17.9) to opposing tight ends this season.
Meanwhile, Sanders left last week’s game with a rib injury that isn’t considered serious and apparently the veteran receiver is pushing to play this week. Still, the 49ers are big home favorites, so they might rest Sanders, which would make Deebo Samuel a strong WR3 play in seasonal leagues and a very popular NFL DFS option at $4,000 on DraftKings. Samuel played a season-high 70 snaps last week while catching eight of 11 targets for 112 yards. Dante Pettis remains in the doghouse, so Samuel would be the clear top option in the passing game if Sanders can’t suit up.
Devonta Freeman (foot) OUT
Freeman left last week’s game early with a foot sprain and is set to miss the next game or two. With Ito Smith on injured reserve, Brian Hill stepped in and served as the every-down back for the Falcons, playing over 51 percent of the snaps and touching the football 21 times. He scored a 10-yard receiving touchdown and is now set for a similar workload this week. The matchup is definitely favorable, facing a reeling Carolina run defense that has coughed up a whopping 10 running back touchdowns over the last four weeks. They are now allowing 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL, while 63 percent of the touchdowns scored against them have come via the run, the highest rate in the league. Hill is a top-20 running back play for NFL DFS this weekend.
Alshon Jeffery (ankle) OUT
Jeffery hurt his ankle before the bye in Week 9 and couldn’t get back onto the practice field this week. He’s been ruled out, which makes a huge difference in this game. If Jeffery played, Stephon Gilmore would have likely shadowed him on 70-80 percent of his routes. But with Jeffery out, DeSean Jackson done for the year and no other Philadelphia wideouts making an impact, we could easily see Gilmore just follow tight end Zach Ertz, which would likely erase the tight end. Gilmore has allowed 0.23 fantasy points per cover snap this year, the third-best mark in the league. Gilmore is also allowing 1.05 fantasy points per target, the second-best rate, while no cornerback is allowing a lower passer rating in coverage (41.1).
Perhaps someone like Jordan Matthews or Nelson Agholor step up in Jeffery’s absence but my guess is that the Eagles use more two-tight end sets to get Dallas Goedert onto the field.