Welcome to the Week 13 edition of the Instant Reactions and Betting Lines Look Ahead column of the 2021 NFL season. The column will break down key stats and observations from around the NFL and provide tips for NFL DFS players and bettors looking to get an early jump on next week’s betting lines. Let’s dive into the all the NFL DFS tips insights and look-ahead betting insights.
Week 13 NFL DFS Sunday Reactions & Week 14 Betting Lines
Only Three RBs Averaged 5+ Yards Per Carry
Coleman was the surprise leader of the Jets’ backfield and averaged more than three yards per carry more than any other Jets’ running back. Patterson was his typical efficient self on the ground, averaging a shocking 6.0 yards per carry on 13 rush attempts, aided by a 39-yard rush, the longest of Sunday’s main slate. Mike Davis may have had a touchdown, but Patterson was by far the more effective rusher. Sony Michel played on 97% of the Rams’ snaps, despite Darrell Henderson being active, and rushed all over the Jaguars, earning 121 yards on 24 attempts.
Javonte Williams‘ 100-Yard Rushing Game on 85.2% of Denver Attempts
The bright spot in an ugly divisional loss to the Chiefs, Williams was one of just nine backs to reach the above mark, and one of just five players to rush players to rush for over 100 yards in all of Week 13. Williams was slowed by his team’s putrid passing offense, as the Broncos only rushed the ball from inside the Chiefs’ 20-yard line four times Sunday night, but at the very least, Williams saw the ball on three of those four totes. Regardless of how the opportunity share breaks down when Melvin Gordon returns from injury, Williams has begun to earn a reputation as one of the most elusive backs in the league and seems destined for multiple slate-breaking performances in 2023. Denver should have a much easier time next week against the (now) one-win Lions, as they open as 7-point favorites at home against Detroit in Week 14.
Mixon Averaged Fewest Yards Per Carry of Those With At Least 15 Attempts
Mixon was nearly unstoppable on the ground in Week 12, but against the Chargers in Week 13, a team that has allowed just under five yards per carry to opponents this season, Mixon was completely stifled on his 19 rush attempts, and his 54 yards rushing is his third-lowest total this season, lowest in a game since Week 8. The Bengals are currently 1-point home favorites next week against the 49ers. That line could easily flip to the San Francisco side later in the week.
Miles Sanders Had Highest PFF Rushing Grade Among RBs
Sanders was in the midst of a spectacular game against the Jets, earning 120 yards on 24 attempts, including a phenomenal 4.8 yards after contact, when he went down in the fourth quarter with an apparent ankle injury. Sanders has dealt with lower leg injuries for much of the season, so the Eagles’ choice to keep him out for the rest of the game may have been more precautionary than anything else. Sanders remained with his teammates on the sideline (and did not travel back to the locker room to further examine his injury) and seemed in good spirits at the game’s end, indicating the injury likely is not serious. The Eagles have a bye in Week 14, but looking ahead to Week 15, Sanders will face a Washington defense that ranks bottom five in points allowed per play, and bottom 12 in yards allowed per carry. Depending on Washington’s performance against Dallas next Sunday, the Eagles’ moneyline could end up being a solid play to bet asap as the Week 14 games wind down.
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Jamaal Williams Played on Less Than 50% of Snaps
One of the highest-rostered players on the Week 13 main slate, Williams saw a 47% snap share and ceded plenty of plays to Godwin Igwebuike (39%) and Jermar Jefferson (11%), but still earned nearly 71% of the team’s running back carries. In a negative game script, and forced into comeback mode, the Lions leaned heavily on the passing game in the second half, with Jefferson and Igwebuike combining for three targets to Williams’ one. It is clear the Lions will use a committee approach to their backfield, particularly in the receiving game, while D’Andre Swift nurses a shoulder injury. The Lions open as 7-point underdogs on the road against the Broncos next Sunday, making Detroit a decent bet against the spread, but they will remain competitive due to their passing attack next week, not due to Williams, who seems to have a set role in the Lions’ middling offensive attack.
Godwin Had Three More Targets Than Any Other Receiver
Godwin was absolutely unstoppable against the Falcons in Week 13, doing a majority of damage from the slate, where he played on nearly 86% of his snaps in the passing game. Among all players with four or more targets, Godwin ranked eighth in yards per route run this week and earned PFF’s fifth-highest receiving grade of any wide receiver this Sunday. The Buccaneers return home to play the Bills in Week 14, where they are currently favored by 3.5 points in the highest-total game on the slate. While the betting line (and the 53-point total) seems about right at the moment, expect this game to be bet on in large volume by the public, inevitably pushing this line off its mark, This should be one of the premier matchups of the season thus far, and if the Buccaneers fall to three-point favorites or less, I’ll be placing bets on Tampa Bay to win handily at home.
Kittle Was First in YAC By 25 Yards
Kittle earned twice the number of targets of any of his teammates, and his 12 looks were second among all players in Week 13. Kittle, known throughout his career as being a yards after catch monster, only added further to his resume with an astounding 108 of his 181 receiving yards (59%) coming after the catch, good for an absurd 1.75 receiver air conversion ratio. Kittle’s 181 yards receiving were the most by a tight end this season. After falling short against the 4-8 Seahawks, the Vegas lines currently do not believe Kittle’s outstanding play will be enough to overcome Cincinnati on the road next Sunday, as the team opens the week as 1-point underdogs in a game with a middling 47.5 total. But this looks like an opportunity that quick bettors can take advantage of, as the 49ers, hardened by one of the toughest divisions in recent memory, absolutely have a chance to take care of business next week as they attempt to hold onto the final playoff spot in the NFC.
Elijah Moore Was First in Air Yards and End Zone Targets
Even within the decrepit New York Jets offense, Elijah Moore is showing on the signs of a budding star in the NFL. Moore is one of just eight wideouts averaging double-digit targets since Week 10 and ranks eighth in average target share during that span. Moore earned nearly four times the amount of air yards from quarterback Zach Wilson than any other Jets’ receiver last weekend, and he is the only skill player on the team with multiple touchdowns scored during that span. Of all players in Week 13 with at least four targets, Moore was one of just a dozen players to average 2.0 or more yards per route run, while playing more than 60% of his snaps out wide. With more consistent quarterback play, Moore could end up being an elite NFL receiver. New York opens as 6-point home underdogs against the Saints, which seems overly bullish on New Orleans, who is on their third-string quarterback, missing their top wideout, and could still be without their top running back as well. The Jets could easily keep that game closer than the Vegas total implies as of now, making them a sneakily strong bet against the spread to begin the week.
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