This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Browns vs. the Cardinals for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 15 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Also be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals
Total: 48
Line: CLE -2.5
Browns passing game
Baker Mayfield will be on zero of my NFL DFS rosters on DraftKings this weekend. I understand that the Cardinals are a terrible defense but paying $6,400 for Mayfield seems very, very suboptimal. Mayfield is 28th in fantasy points per dropback (0.36) and 29th in fantasy points per game (13.5). Yes, the matchup is good, making him a solid streaming option if you choose to go that way. The Cardinals are surrendering the third-most points per drive this season (2.50) and over the last six weeks, they are coughing up the second-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.57). Arizona is also allowing a league-leading 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, making Mayfield a borderline top-15 option here.
Still the top receiver in Cleveland, Jarvis Landry is second in the league in targets since Week 8 (71), averaging just over 10 per game during that span. His 27.3 percent target share is now the fifth-highest mark among all receivers and Landry is also fifth in the league in yards after the catch. No longer just an intermediate target, Landry is averaging a career-high 14.4 yards per reception and gets to face an Arizona defense that is allowing a ton of big plays. Only the Raiders have allowed more passing plays of 20 yards or more than the Cardinals this season (61).
Arizona has also struggled to defend slot receivers this season, as no team is coughing up more fantasy poin
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ts per game to the slot (26.2), according to Pro Football Focus. Landry is once again the best play from the Browns and is slightly underpriced over on DraftKings.
Odell Beckham Jr. has been held under 40 yards in each of the last two games, as his rough inaugural campaign with Cleveland continues. A lot of sites keep daring you to play him due to his price tags and in seasonal formats, he truly needs to be viewed as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. The connection with Mayfield just hasn’t been there all season long. It is a solid matchup, as the Cardinals are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, while cornerback Patrick Peterson looks very, very rusty right now.
Tight ends against the Cardinals are always enticing. David Njoku is back for the Browns, though he only played 38 percent of the snaps. He also only ran nine pass routes and is now dealing with a knee issue that limited him in practice on Wednesday. There is definitely some risk tied to Njoku this week for NFL DFS, despite the fantastic matchup.
Browns running game
That is now consecutive games with less than 20 carries for Nick Chubb, while Kareem Hunt saw a season-high nine carries last week. Chubb has still been mostly productive, though he’s only scored one touchdown since Week 6, as he’s short-yardage usage has gone down a bit as of late. He’s still a back-end RB1 in a good spot against the Cardinals, who are allowing 120.5 rushing yards per game on the year, the eighth-most in the league. And Chubb does still lead the NFL with 253 carries and breakaway runs (runs of 15 yards or more) with 14. Hunt, meanwhile, is averaging a solid 5.4 targets per game this year, keeping him on the flex radar in PPR leagues.
Cardinals passing game
Kyler Murray (at least to me) was predictably awful last week against the Steelers. I talked about how Murray has been a bottom-five passer against the blitz, while Pittsburgh blitzes a ton. I have a hard time trusting Murray as my fantasy quarterback in the playoffs or in NFL DFS because he’s been too inconsistent. Murray has zero touchdown passes in six different games this season, despite averaging 36 pass attempts per game. The matchup against the Browns is middling, as Cleveland is allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (18.2). Murray still gives you production with his legs, averaging a healthy 5.9 carries per game, the third-most among signal callers. His price on DraftKings does have me a bit intrigued at just $5,600.
Christian Kirk is coming off a strong game, despite Arizona’s offensive struggles. He hauled in eight of nine targets for 85 yards and he quietly has a 24.9 percent target share, the 14th-highest mark in football. Kirk easily has the highest ceiling of any Arizona pass-catcher, though he remains a mid-range WR3 in this middle-of-the-road matchup.
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Cardinals running game
If I can help it, I don’t want anything to do with this backfield. Kenyan Drake remains the lead back, touching the ball 15 and 14 times over the last two weeks. He led the Cardinals running backs with a 65 percent snap share, while David Johnson played 37 percent of the snaps. Drake is a low-end RB2/FLEX against a Browns defense that is coughing up 128.2 rushing yards per game, the seventh-most in football. Cleveland is also allowing 4.8 yards per carry, the fifth-most in the league.
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