Buffalo Bills (25.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (28.25)
Quick-Hitter Game Summary
- With Patrick Mahomes‘ health somewhat up in the air headed into the weekend, Josh Allen might be the most exciting quarterback play on the slate. The Bills’ hyper-aggressive, pass-friendly offense shouldn’t have any problem against Kansas City’s 19th-ranked defense.
- The Chiefs led all teams in point differential during the regular season and, assuming Mahomes is able to play, shouldn’t have any problem scoring through the air against a Bills secondary that ranked right at league average in defensive efficiency against the pass this season. The Bills were even worse (20th during the regular season) against the run, but the Chiefs ranked just 19th in rush efficiency this season. Rushing the ball simply isn’t the 2020 Chiefs’ forte.
- Stefon Diggs is a smash play at $7,000 on DraftKings. The Chiefs rank worst on the slate in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary receivers since Week 14.
- Devin Singletary still looks like a solid value option as the sixth-highest-salary running back on the slate. The Bills will lean on the run much more than last week when the Buffalo chose to avoid Baltimore’s stout interior defensive line. The Chiefs defense ranked 30th in rushing efficiency during the regular season.
- The Bills’ secondary receiving options — John Brown, Cole Beasley and even tight end Dawson Knox — look to be in favorable spots this weekend and could pile up fantasy points if the Bills are playing from behind in the second half and are forced to pass.
NFL DFS Upside Analysis
With both teams ranking well above average in nearly every key offensive aggressiveness metric, and with both teams leaning on offensive prowess (and not lockdown defense) to win games, it’s hard to imagine this game becoming a defensive slugfest. The 53.5-point Vegas total is genuinely modest compared to the offensive fireworks we could witness this weekend. Injury status aside, the last six weeks haven’t been the most efficient stretch for Patrick Mahomes (he ranks fourth of four quarterbacks in per-play efficiency during that span), and Allen has been nearly flawless during that same span. That said, Mahomes’ ceiling remains unchanged — he could easily be the highest-scoring player on the slate — and the Chiefs rank second (by a hair) on Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool.
Teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Passing and Pace
Quarterback Efficiency
Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar chart), per-play efficiency — including rushes/scrambles (center) — and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker
Allen and Diggs are two obvious value plays this weekend, as both players have high probabilities of finishing as the top players at their respective positions and rank best on the slate on Awesemo’s Top Stacks tool. While the Bills proved they have no problem abandoning their rushing game entirely, as they did a week ago, Singletary still seems like a quality mid-tier running back as the sixth-highest-salary running back on the slate (on a slate devoid of bell cow backs), especially with the Chiefs ranking worst on the slate in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Travis Kelce has projections right in line with their top-tier salaries, but Kelce’s expected projection far outweighs every other Chiefs player and is identical to Diggs. Sammy Watkins is only practicing on a limited basis this week. His absence Sunday would mean increased reps once again for Mecole Hardman. Hardman is a strong tournament play this weekend should Watkins sit once again.
Buffalo Bills NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| BUF | Josh Allen, QB | #2 | #1 | #1 | #3 | 26 Fpts (QB1) |
| BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR | #3 | #1 | #1 | #3 | 26 Fpts (WR1) |
| BUF | John Brown, WR | #7 | #7 | #7 | #2 | 10 Fpts (WR7) |
| BUF | Cole Beasley, WR | #9 | #8 | #8 | #2 | 9 Fpts (WR8) |
| BUF | Devin Singletary, RB | #6 | #6 | #5 | #4 | 9.5 Fpts (RB5) |
| BUF | Dawson Knox, TE | #5 | #3 | #2 | #4 | 9 Fpts (TE3) |
| BUF | Gabriel Davis, WR | #14 | #10 | #9 | #2 | 8.5 Fpts (WR10) |
Kansas City Chiefs NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| KC | Patrick Mahomes, QB | #1 | #4 | #3 | #1 | 22.5 Fpts (QB3) |
| KC | Travis Kelce, TE | #1 | #1 | #1 | #3 | 26.5 Fpts (TE1) |
| KC | Tyreek Hill, WR | #2 | #3 | #3 | #2 | 19 Fpts (WR3) |
| KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB | #3 | #4 | #2 | #3 | 11.5 Fpts (RB4) |
| KC | Sammy Watkins, WR | #12 | #13 | #13 | #1 | 6.5 Fpts (WR13) |
| KC | Mecole Hardman, WR | #10 | #12 | #10 | #3 | 8 Fpts (WR12) |
Unless participating in a large-field tournament, the players above are the players that fantasy gamers should be focusing on in their daily fantasy football lineups. For each player, it’s easy to compare their DraftKings main-slate salary ranking (in column 3) to their per-game fantasy scoring (in column 4). A player’s opportunity is measured by expected fantasy points, (column 5), which is curated by PFF. Defense vs. Position (column 6) is an extremely helpful position-specific and player group-specific metric (for example, the metric delineates between primary wide receiver vs. secondary wide receivers) that helps determine if an offensive player is likely to be in a position to exceed their expected fantasy points. Higher numbers in the Defense vs. Position column indicate easier matchups for the offense, while numbers closer to one indicate a stout defense against that specific position group. Finally, expected projection (column 7) combines a player’s expected fantasy points with their weekly matchup into one helpful value metric. Apart from the Awesemo projections (which should still carry the most weight in determining player value), expected projection is one of my favorite metrics to help me narrow down my favorite plays of the week. The rankings are always specific to the slate, meaning if a player or team is ranked No. 1 at a specific metric, they may not necessarily be ranked No. 1 in the NFL, but they are for this specific slate.
NFL DFS Skill Position Values: Expected Points
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to make his return this weekend (after a false start a week ago) and has an outside chance at being the highest-volume running back (in expected fantasy points) in this matchup. Still, both teams view rushing (and utilizing running backs in general) as an afterthought, instead looking for opportunities to push the ball downfield via the pass. Singletary hasn’t been impressive during the playoffs but should lead the Bills’ backfield in touches and is locked in for eight-plus looks in this likely high-scoring affair. Kelce shines in the receiving-game expected fantasy points chart below, even outpacing Diggs, at least from a volume perspective, over the last six weeks. Diggs has outproduced Kelce during that span, however, and remains a value as the third-highest-salary wideout on the slate.
By assigning a value to each play (based on score, down, distance to the goal line, distance to first down, play type, etc.), we can measure not just a player’s workload, but the expected value of that workload using recent league history as a guide. Expected fantasy points should be considered a volume metric. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
With the Bills utilizing consistently using three wideouts and rotating in Knox and rookie wideout Gabriel Davis (who had multiple end zone targets a week ago), it’s hard to trust either Isaiah McKenzie or T.J. Yeldon. But in such a fantasy-friendly expected game environment, both (especially McKenzie) could be considered in massive-field tournaments. Demarcus Robinson, while less explosive in the open field compared to other Chiefs’ auxiliary weapons, seems like the best large-field tournament option on the Chiefs’ side of the ball. Darrel Williams and Le’Veon Bell are extremely thin plays even if Edwards-Helaire sits this weekend. The Chiefs simply don’t utilize running backs enough to trust either player.
Buffalo Bills NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| BUF | Isaiah McKenzie, WR | 31% | 29 | #2 | MME-only |
| BUF | T.J. Yeldon, RB | 14% | 8 | #4 | Look Elsewhere |
Kansas City Chiefs NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| KC | Demarcus Robinson, WR | 63% | 33 | #3 | MME-only |
| KC | Darrel Williams, RB | 38% | 50 | #3 | MME-only |
| KC | Le’Veon Bell, RB | 25% | 29 | #3 | Look Elsewhere |
In daily fantasy football, depending on the size and type of contest you’re playing, it’s often advantageous to expand your player pool to less-utilized offensive players. In this section, we examine every part-time player’s usage based on playing time, opportunity and defensive matchup. For each player, an Opportunity Score is calculated using position-specific predictive metrics, which are then scaled to number between zero (least valuable) and 100 (most valuable). Scores above 50 tend to indicate starter-level opportunity, while scores over 80 indicate star-level usage. Finally, players are categorized as an NFL DFS value, a mass multi-entry option (MME-only) or a player to avoid altogether.
Final Thoughts
With both teams’ defenses lagging well behind their respective offenses in efficiency for much of the season, it’s genuinely difficult to imagine this game going under its Vegas total. Assuming Mahomes suits up for Kansas City (understandably, the Chiefs have little chance of winning, under 30%, if Mahomes doesn’t pass the concussion protocol), we should see myriad top-tier fantasy performances from this contest on both sides of the ball. Roster plenty of Bills and Chiefs this weekend in your NFL DFS lineups, sit back and enjoy the show.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 31
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