(44.5) Dallas Cowboys (23.5) @ New York Giants (21)
Quick-Hitter Game Summary:
- If Washington loses in Week 17, the winner of this contest will represent the NFC East in the playoffs. The loser of this contest will almost certainly have a top-10 pick in the NFL draft.
- This game has all the makings of an ugly late-season slugfest where points are at a premium. There’s limited shootout probability in this matchup, despite the playoff implications.
- The Dallas defense has been exploitable all season, giving all the Giants primary weapons, Daniel Jones, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton solid median projections compared to their salary-based expectations. The Giants do not rank highly in the Awesemo top-stacks tool, indicate they’re better as standalone plays than as part of a game-stack.
- The Awesemo projections are much less bullish on the Cowboys passing attack, but the Giants have struggled against wide receivers of late, allowing seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing primary wide receivers. Amari Cooper has plenty of appeal as the 21st-highest salary wide receiver on the slate.
Data Deep-Dive:
All Graphs Reflect Last Five Weeks of Data, Click Graphs to Enlarge
NFL DFS Upside Analysis:
Significant takeaways: Both of these offenses rank below league-average in pace of play, and the Giants rank well below league-average in pass rate in neutral situations, indicating they’re content running the ball in situations they really shouldn’t be. Andy Dalton‘s increased his efficiency as a passer over the last five weeks and ranks among the top 11 quarterbacks in per-play and per-pass efficiency.
Passing and Pace
Why look at passing at pace? Teams that play faster and pass more than average tend to score more fantasy points. When both teams play aggressively, it often creates a game environment perfect for fantasy scoring. Games have a higher probability of going over their Vegas total as well. Ideally, we’re seeking matchups where both teams are in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below (see the chart’s caption for more details).
Quarterback Efficiency
Why examine quarterback efficiency? Sustained drives in the NFL rely on efficiency at the quarterback position, so I’ve identified my three favorite performance indicators for assessing quarterback performance. The three bar charts below (see the graph’s caption for more detail) represent a quarterback’s per-drive efficiency (left bar-chart), per-play efficiency including rushes/scrambles (center) and per-pass efficiency (right). Higher rankings from both players indicate a higher likelihood of efficient play, thus a higher probability of fantasy points.
NFL DFS Player Pool Picker
Significant takeaway: The Cowboys’ primary pieces all fall into the fairly-priced category, but CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup stand out as values compared to their salaries outside the top-30 wideouts. Gallup has led the team in weighted opportunity rating in recent weeks, but the Giants have done an excellent job in stopping tertiary weapons on the outside, ranking #1 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position group since Week 11.
Dallas Cowboys NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| DAL | Andy Dalton, QB | #15 | #13 | #9 | #2 | 17 Fpts (QB15) |
| DAL | Ezekiel Elliott, RB | #11 | #34 | #23 | #17 | 13.5 Fpts (RB13) |
| DAL | Amari Cooper, WR | #21 | #21 | #23 | #16 | 14 Fpts (WR22) |
| DAL | CeeDee Lamb, WR | #33 | #19 | #27 | #14 | 13.5 Fpts (WR25) |
| DAL | Michael Gallup, WR | #38 | #35 | #31 | #1 | 12 Fpts (WR34) |
New York Giants NFL DFS Core Offenses
| Team | Player | Positional Salary Rank | FPTs/Gm Rank | Expected FPTs/Gm Rank | Defense vs. Position | Expected Projection |
| NYG | Daniel Jones, QB | #22 | #25 | #23 | #16 | 16 Fpts (QB19) |
| NYG | Sterling Shepard, WR | #33 | #47 | #40 | #20 | 13.5 Fpts (WR25) |
| NYG | Wayne Gallman Jr., RB | #29 | #19 | #22 | #14 | 12 Fpts (RB18) |
| NYG | Darius Slayton, WR | #54 | #98 | #88 | #23 | 6.5 Fpts (WR72) |
| NYG | Evan Engram, TE | #15 | #14 | #11 | #2 | 9.5 Fpts (TE11) |
NFL DFS Skill Position Values: Expected Points
Significant takeaway: The graph below perfectly illustrates why Ezekiel Elliott‘s season’s been so disappointing. Elliott’s expected fantasy points per game average absolutely trounces Wayne Gallman‘s, yet they’re producing fantasy points at almost an identical rate. Michael Gallup is surprisingly the top wideout in expected fantasy points. He’s looking like the clear best value on the Dallas offense this weekend.
Why examine expected fantasy points? By assigning a value to each play (based on score, down, distance to the goal line, distance to first down, play type, etc.), we can measure not just a player’s workload, but the expected value of that workload using recent league history as a guide. Expected fantasy points should be considered a volume metric. If a player scores more fantasy points (represented by the dots in the bar chart below) than expected, that means the player is either talented or lucky (or both) and may have unsustainable fantasy production based on their usage.
NFL DFS Auxiliary Offensive Players for Large-Field Contests
Significant takeaway: Dalton Schultz, playing a full-time snap share and facing a Giants defense that ranks bottom-7 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends is absolutely viable as a standalone piece or in an Andy Dalton stack. Schultz is one of the best values at his position, with a salary outside the top-20 tight ends.
Dallas Cowboys NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| DAL | Dalton Schultz, TE | 92% | 90 | #26 | Value |
| DAL | Tony Pollard, RB | 44% | 22 | #17 | MME-only |
| DAL | Noah Brown, WR | 20% | 18 | #1 | Look Elsewhere |
New York Giants NFL DFS Tournament Picks
| Team | Player | Snap Share | Opportunity Score | Defense vs. Position | Outlook: Value, MME-only, Look Elsewhere |
| NYG | Golden Tate, WR | 48% | 54 | #26 | Look Elsewhere |
| NYG | Alfred Morris, RB | 17% | 40 | #14 | Look Elsewhere |
| NYG | Dion Lewis, RB | 27% | 57 | #14 | Look Elsewhere |
| NYG | Kaden Smith, TE | 52% | 9 | #2 | Look Elsewhere |
Final Thoughts
This matchup lacks shootout upside and doesn’t offer much for fantasy gamers, especially on a 15 game slate, but when factoring-in salary, the Dallas wideouts should absolutely be considered when building lineups this weekend. The Giants skill players should be used sparingly, but make decent enough salary-saving options, as well.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 26.
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