We had some very exciting Divisional games last weekend, with some solid bounce backs for our NFL DFS purposes. Four teams remain in the playoffs and we are running out of time to play fantasy football. My Fantasy Matchups column continues with this weekend’s Conference Championship games.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 52.5
Line: KC -7.5
Titans passing game
After being one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football during the regular season, the Titans have turned Ryan Tannehill into a game manager. He’s attempted 29 total passes during Tennessee’s two victories, throwing for 162 yards, though he has scored four total touchdowns. The Titans have been running down team’s throats, calling run a whopping 68.2 percent of the time over the last three weeks. This offensive philosophy isn’t going to change, especially against the Chiefs, as most teams that have faced Kansas City have found success by dominating time of possession.
The matchup isn’t even all that favorable, as the Chiefs surrendered a 3.6 percent passing touchdown rate during the regular season, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. They also allowed the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7). The best case scenario for Tannehill as a fantasy option is the Chiefs getting ahead big and early, forcing the Titans to ditch their game plan. Kansas City enter this game as more than a touchdown home favorites but this game should also be slow-paced. But on a two-game slate, Tannehill is still worth a look because of how efficient he is, while other quarterbacks have tougher matchups.
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Obviously, these Tennessee pass-catchers aren’t going to have huge games when their quarterback has completed 15 passes in two games. As a result, A.J. Brown has just two catches for 13 yards, which takes him out of cash game consideration for me. Of course, he still has immense GPP upside, as the rookie led all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception (8.9). The Chiefs were 12th in yards after the catch allowed, so it isn’t a smash spot or anything, especially with cornerback Charvarius Ward putting together an impressive season.
Ward allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per coverage snap this season (0.24), as well as the seventh-fewest fantasy points per target (1.28). He also allowed a 46.4 percent catch rate, the third-best mark in the league, so things won’t come easy for Brown this weekend. When he does allow a catch, it tends to come down the field, as Ward allowed nearly 15 yards per reception, and we know Brown has big play upside. Brown is best suited for tournaments this week.
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Only the Patriots allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts than the Chiefs in 2019-20, making it another tough spot for Corey Davis. Even on such a small slate, Davis isn’t really on my radar this weekend.
Tight end Jonnu Smith has five targets during this postseason run and that somehow leads the team. That just shows how low volume of a passing game this truly is, though Smith did score an impressive touchdown against the Ravens last week. Like Brown, Smith has immense upside once the ball is in his hands, as his 7.8 yards after the catch per reception was second-best among all tight ends over the course of the season. The Chiefs, meanwhile, allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the course of the season, though a lot of it came from sheer volume, as they saw 9.0 targets per game, the second-most in football. Volume is definitely a concern for Smith, which makes him only a GPP option.
Titans running game
The story of the playoffs, Derrick Henry continues to amaze. Through two weeks, the NFL’s leading rusher has carried the ball 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown. He even threw a touchdown pass last week. At this time of the season, there isn’t a player you’d want to see less as an opposing defense, and Henry now gets the best matchup he’s seen during this run.
Kansas City has had issues stopping the run all year long, stuffing just 14 percent of all carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, tied for the third-lowest mark in the NFL. They also allowed the fifth-most standard fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, while 38 percent of the touchdowns surrendered by this defense have come on the ground, the eighth-highest rate in football. And when he met this team earlier in the regular season, Henry torched them to the tune of 188 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Defensive lineman Chris Jones, who missed last week’s game, is questionable to suit up on Sunday, potentially making this matchup even better. Good luck fading Henry this weekend.
Chiefs passing game
Down 24-0 last week, Patrick Mahomes had seen enough. The former MVP exploded during the second quarter and led the Chiefs to 34 unanswered points in the team’s come-from-behind win. Mahomes finished the day with 321 passing yards and five touchdowns, while also rushing for 53 yards. We know that Mahomes has a massive ceiling and he threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns against this Tennessee team back in Week 10, one that had a much healthier secondary at that time. The Titans allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game on the season (257.4), while 70.3 percent of the yardage surrendered by Tennessee came through the air, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. This game certainly won’t be as wild as last week’s but make sure you have some Mahomes exposure.
Despite the fantasy fireworks in Kansas City last week, Tyreek Hill finished the game with 45 scoreless yards. Still, he always has the potential to break a slate, averaging 2.70 yards per pass route on the year, the seventh-highest mark in football. He tagged this Tennessee defense for 157 yards and a touchdown on 11 receptions and the only member of the Titans secondary that can somewhat match his speed is Adoree’ Jackson, who could shadow him in this spot. He shadowed Hill on just over 53 percent of Hill’s routes back in Week 10, surrendering four catches for 60 yards on eight targets. Jackson hasn’t surrendered a ton of fantasy points but did allow nearly a 71 percent catch rate in coverage over the course of the season. Hill is worth a strong look in both formats.
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Sammy Watkins was targeted just two times last week but remains the clear No. 2 receiver in a Mahomes-led offense. And with so much uncertainty at the wide receiver position this week, it is hard to just completely eliminate Watkins from your player pool. Meanwhile, I’d love to be able to play someone like Mecole Hardman but he played 10 offensive snaps in last week’s divisional round, so it is unlikely he finally sees an uptick in playing time in the AFC Championship game. Demarcus Robinson just had an awful game, dropping multiple passes so you’d think Hardman would get more run but until we see it, he is nothing more than a GPP dart.
Travis Kelce is really good at football. Despite seeing multiple double teams last week, Kelce still lit the Texans up, catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll be limited in practice this week but is not in danger of missing this game. The price came up but on a two-game slate, you pretty much have to play Kelce or George Kittle this week, and my pick is Kelce, who faces a Tennessee defense that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (11.35). They also allowed the second-most touchdowns per game to the position (0.6).
Chiefs running game
The clear-cut top running back in this offense, Damien Williams played 96 percent of the offensive snaps last week. He touched the ball 14 times for just 68 yards but found the end zone three times. Kansas City went very pass-heavy in this game, especially once they got down early but Williams doesn’t appear to be coming off the field. The team stated during the regular season that they were saving veteran LeSean McCoy for the playoffs but he played just one snap on Sunday. That playing time, especially in an offense implied to score around 30 points, is tough to ignore.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Total: 45
Line: SF -7.5
Packers passing game
Aaron Rodgers played a quality game against the Seahawks last week, throwing for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He made a handful of vintage Rodgers throws and it ended up being his third-best fantasy outing since Week 13. We just haven’t seen consistent upside from Rodgers over the course of the season and now he heads to San Francisco to take on one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The 49ers generated pressure at the league’s second-highest rate during the regular season (28.7 percent), while surrendering the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.9). It is hard to eliminate anyone on a slate so small but this matchup isn’t good, as just one quarterback all year long has thrown more than two touchdowns against the 49ers this season, so the upside is definitely in question here.
The best receiver left in the playoffs, Davante Adams torched the Seattle secondary to the tune of eight catches, 160 yards and two touchdowns last week. Since returning from his toe injury back in Week 9, Adams has seen double-digit targets in all but one contest, while being targeted on over 20 percent of his snaps during that span. He’s found the end zone seven times over his last seven games and always has the potential to score touchdowns, especially with Rodgers not really having any trust in the other receivers from this offense.
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You don’t have to worry about someone like Richard Sherman shadowing here, as Sherman lines up on the left side of the formation over 90 percent of the time. That means that Adams will line up against Ahkello Witherspoon for about half of the game. Witherspoon struggled against Stefon Diggs last week and allowed a healthy 0.42 fantasy points per pass route during the regular season. Adams is clearly the top receiver play of the weekend.
Allen Lazard is the only other Green Bay wideout worth considering but he has two things going against him. For starters, he is nursing a minor ankle injury that has him limited in practice. Secondly, he is the one that will see more Sherman in this game. He is nothing more than a GPP dart.
Packers running game
Even with Jamaal Williams back last week, Green Bay continued to use Aaron Jones as their clear lead back, as he touched the ball 23 times to Williams’ two. He found the end zone twice, as Jones continues to score a ton of touchdowns, and has now played well over 80 percent of the offensive snaps over the Packers last two games. This matchup isn’t great, as the 49ers allowed 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game during the regular season and just bottled up Dalvin Cook last week. But if Green Bay continues to use Jones this much, it is hard not to just pair him with Henry in your lineups and reap the benefits. However, there is some risk that Williams is more involved, especially if Jones misses a block or fumbles.
49ers passing game
I liked Jimmy Garoppolo last week and it appeared to be working out, especially after the first drive. However, the 49ers just ran the ball down Minnesota’s throat during the second half of the game and they had no answer, limiting Garoppolo to just 19 pass attempts, his fewest in a game this season. San Francisco is going to rely on their elite running schemes and defense to win games, limiting Garoppolo’s upside. That said, he is the cheapest starting quarterback on the slate, which will help you fit in the high-end running backs, tight ends or receivers.
The Packers, meanwhile, were in the middle of the pack in yards after the catch allowed this year, which is important when analyzing Garoppolo, who averaged 6.6 yards after the catch during the regular season, which led the NFL. But Green Bay’s pass defense has been super inconsistent over the course of the year and Garoppolo is cheap, so he shouldn’t be eliminated from consideration.
I’m not really interested in Emmanuel Sanders this week. He is still seeing around the same number of targets as Deebo Samuel since the second half of the season but he’s been lacking upside unless he throws a touchdown pass, which you obviously can’t count on. Sanders is also going to see the most of Jaire Alexander, who is Green Bay’s best cornerback. Alexander allowed a 53 percent catch rate in coverage this year, the ninth-lowest rate in the league, while finishing inside the top-24 in fantasy points allowed by target.
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I’d much rather play Samuel (again). He caught three passes for 42 yards and was tackled at the one-yard line last week, while the 49ers continue to give him a few carries each game. Samuel has the best matchup of the 49ers pass-catchers, as he’ll see plenty of coverage from Kevin King, who allowed 287 yards after the catch this year, the eighth-most in football. That bodes well for Samuel, whose 8.3 yards after the catch per reception was second-best among all receivers this year. King also allowed an ugly (or enticing) 15.7 yards per reception and 9.4 yards per target, as well as 0.44 fantasy points per coverage snap and 1.81 fantasy points per target. He also surrendered the fifth-most yards per coverage snap, giving Samuel plenty of upside once again this week. He’s one of my favorite GPP plays of the week.
On such a small slate, you have to play Kittle in some capacity. His upside is too big and while I do think Kelce is the overall better play, Kittle still has plenty of potential against a Packers defense that has allowed some big games to opposing tight ends this year, including Kittle back in Week 12 (6-129-1). The passing volume out of San Francisco is a little concerning but Kittle can make his day on three catches, as he leads the entire league in yards per pass route (4.20), while ranking second among tight ends in yards per target (9.8) and ninth in yards per reception (12.4).
49ers running game
Well, that was unexpected.
After Raheem Mostert appeared to have clearly taken over this backfield, Tevin Coleman came out of nowhere to carry the ball 22 times for 105 yards and two scores last week. With the sudden uncertainty here and the clarity elsewhere, not many people will turn to these guys, which makes them intriguing in tournaments. You can definitely run on the Packers, as they were one of only eight teams to allow at least one rushing touchdown per game this year.
Meanwhile, 45.9 percent of the touchdowns scored against Green Bay this season have come on the ground, good for the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. They stuffed just 13 percent of carries at the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in the league, so this 49ers run-blocking unit could create plenty of running lanes for these backs. Mostert’s price is way cheaper than Coleman’s and he had been seeing the short-yardage work before last week so if I had to pick one to roster, it would be Mostert.
