We are down to two teams this week, but there is still plenty of matchups to cover for NFL DFS purposes. My Fantasy Matchups column concludes with this weekend’s Super Bowl.
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Does not include Fantasy Cruncher.
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 54.5
Line: KC -1.5
49ers passing game
Could Jimmy Garoppolo attempt 20 passes in a game? He just threw eight passes in their victory over the Packers in the NFC Championship game and only attempted 18 passes against the Vikings. We know the 49ers call run as often as any team in football and in the biggest game of the year, why would they change their offensive philosophy? San Francisco’s run scheme is second to none in the NFL, so if you are looking to Garoppolo, you are banking on the Chiefs offense putting up points, forcing the 49ers to throw.
The matchup is less than ideal, as Kansas City was bottom-five in fantasy points per pass attempt allowed over the final four weeks of the season. The Chiefs also allowed just 6.2 yards per completion, the sixth-fewest in football. And unless his pass catchers make a big play after the catch, Garoppolo likely isn’t going to have many big passing plays, as just 6.5 percent of his 2019 pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more, the second-fewest rate in all of football. Kansas City was smack dab in the middle of the league in yards after the catch allowed this season, while sporting the eighth-best passing touchdown rate allowed. If this game becomes a shootout — and the total is high — Garoppolo could surprise us. But it is tough to project a big NFL DFS output from him.
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For the last handful of weeks, I have preferred Deebo Samuel to Emmanuel Sanders for NFL DFS. However, this might be the week for the veteran. The slot has been the way to attack Kansas City this season, as they surrendered the 15th-most fantasy points per game to the slot, compared to ranking third and first in fantasy points allowed to the left and right sides of the formation.
With George Kittle demanding so much defensive attention, I’d wager we see safety Tyrann Mathieu follow him around the field on Sunday, lining Sanders up against Kendall Fuller, who allowed 0.53 fantasy points per coverage snap over the course of the regular season. Samuel still has the big play upside and will give you a few carries in this game, keeping him in the discussion. But from a pure matchup perspective, I think Sanders profiles a bit better this weekend.
Kittle, meanwhile, always has NFL DFS upside. It is really cool, by the way, that the two tight ends to choose from in this game are the two best tight ends in the NFL. Anyway, Kittle hasn’t posted big numbers in these playoffs but when his quarterback has attempted 26 total passes, how could he? He has the better matchup of the two, as the Chiefs allowed 6.1 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this year, tied for the second-most in the NFL. They also allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to the position (60.9), as well as the second-most targets per game (9.0). Their boundary corners have played well this year so when the 49ers throw the football against the Chiefs, it could go through Kittle, who paced the entire league in yards per pass route (4.20).
49ers running game
San Francisco rode the red-hot Raheem Mostert to a Super Bowl berth a few weeks back. The veteran journeyman went off, rushing for 220 yards and four touchdowns on 29 carries. Tevin Coleman suffered a dislocated shoulder that forced him to leave the game and is questionable to suit up Sunday night. If he sits, you obviously feel safe about this backfield, as Matt Breida has been phased out of this rotation for a few weeks now. Mostert would be one of the best NFL DFS options of this entire game if Coleman can’t play, and could still be even if he does.
San Francisco called run 51.9 percent of the time this season, the second-highest rate in football, and we’ve seen teams pound the rock against the Chiefs to keep their offense on the sidelines. The 49ers will have no issue doing that and Mostert could continue to run behind that elite offensive line that helped him generate 3.5 yards before contact per attempt this year, the highest mark among all running backs. You can definitely run on the Chiefs, as they stuffed just 14 percent of all carries during the year, tied for the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
Chiefs passing game
Patrick Mahomes put up monster numbers against the Texans and Titans but the 49ers are a different beast. No team in the NFL allowed fewer passing yards per game than San Francisco this season (190.9), while their 5.9 yards per pass attempt was the best in football too. And we know they can get after the quarterback, sporting the league’s second-highest pressure rate at 28.7 percent. Meanwhile, Drew Brees was the only quarterback to throw more than two touchdown passes against the 49ers this season.
Now, Mahomes can obviously get it done against anyone and we have seen the Chiefs rely on him during the playoffs. Both of these quarterbacks were top-three in yards after the catch per completion, so we might see them rely on their skill players to make plays. The total is high and Mahomes is really good but it is tough to expect a huge game against this stout defensive unit.
We saw a big game out of Tyreek Hill against the Titans a few weeks ago, as the speedster caught five of seven targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Who will he see most in this game? Hill operated out of the slot right around 50 percent of the time this season, meaning half the time, he’d avoid Richard Sherman, who lines up on the left side 98 percent of the time. The problem is the 49ers play a zone defense that keeps the ball in front of them, as they coughed up the second-fewest passing plays of both 20 and 40 yards this season. He’s the second-most expensive player on the slate and we know the NFL DFS upside is there but it could be a game where the running backs and tight ends catch more passes.
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Sammy Watkins also produced finally last week but he’s still so tough to trust, especially with a matchup against the much improved K’Waun Williams, who only allowed 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap this season, one of the better marks among all corners in the league. He also didn’t allow a single touchdown in slot coverage. Meanwhile, could we finally be seeing the Chiefs turn to rookie Mecole Hardman as their No. 3 receiver? After playing behind Demarcus Robinson for the entire season, as well as their playoff game against the Texans, Hardman out-snapped Robinson 27-25 against the Titans. If he is going to play more snaps, given how efficient he’s been this year, you have to have some interest in him, though he’d see a decent bit of Sherman if he is playing where Robinson usually does on the right side of the formation.
Travis Kelce is still going to be peppered with targets in this game despite the tough assignment. No tight end reached 70 yards against the 49ers this season, while they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (7.64). They were more vulnerable to touchdowns to opposing tight ends than big yardage games. Kittle is in the better spot but given the differences in offenses, Kelce likely will still be targeted more.
Chiefs running game
This is pretty clearly Damien Williams’ backfield. He’s handled 29 of the 30 running back carries during these playoffs and is dominating the snaps. In more of a neutral game script, I’d project Williams for 15-18 carries, including all of the goal line work in an elite offense. We could see an uptick in pass-catching duties if the 49ers pass rush gets after Mahomes. While they didn’t allow many rushing touchdowns, San Francisco did surrender 4.21 yards per carry over the course of the season, which was good but not great.
