The NFL Fantasy Football Matchups: Sunday Wild Card Game Breakdowns with Adam Pfeifer (FREE)

Playoffs? Playoffs. Writing this article during the regular season has been one of the most enjoyable things I’ve done since beginning fantasy football content. Like I say all the time, it makes me a better analyst and fantasy player. And with the regular season in the books, it is time to shift our attention towards the NFL postseason. While season-long fantasy is over, thousands of people are still playing a ton of NFL DFS for the playoffs, so this article will have the same goal…to put money in your pockets.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 49.5

Line: NO -7.5

Vikings passing game

After tossing multiple touchdown passes seven times from Weeks 5-13, Kirk Cousins has now failed to score multiple touchdowns in three straight games. During that span, Cousins is 23rd in passing yards (571), 29th in fantasy points per droback (0.37) and 25th in passing touchdowns (3). The Saints have been an up-and-down pass defense this season, looking like a top-tier unit some weeks and a train wreck others. They have been a pass funnel, though, as 72.5 percent of the yardage allowed by the Saints has come through the air, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, 67.5 percent of the touchdowns allowed by New Orleans have been via the pass, the seventh-highest rate in the league.

You aren’t likely to get an insane amount of pass attempts from Cousins unless this game gets out of hand, as he is averaging under 30 pass attempts per game on the season. But getting his starting running back in the lineup again should help this team set up play-action, which is huge for Cousins, who ranks fourth in the league in play-action completion rate (73.6%). And the Saints have allowed 11 quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdown passes against them this year, making Cousins an intriguing GPP NFL DFS play as touchdown dogs on the road.

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Stefon Diggs has only seen 11 targets over the last two weeks with Adam Thielen back. The Vikings also didn’t attempt a ton of passes in those two games, so it isn’t as if the six and five target totals are truly awful. Diggs remains the deep threat in this Minnesota offense and quite honestly, he’s been one of the best in the league. He is sixth in the NFL in yards per reception (17.9), third in yards per target (12.1) and fifth in yards per pass route (2.97). Diggs is also ninth in completed air yards (846), while averaging 9.1 air yards per target.

I’d expect him to see plenty of Marshon Lattimore in this game and while he’s a good corner, Lattimore isn’t someone I run away from when a talented receiver is on the other side. He has definitely been good, ranking 10th in fantasy points allowed per coverage snap (0.28) and ninth in fantasy points per target (1.34) but Diggs has had plenty of success against this New Orleans team in the past, posting stat lines of 10-119-1, 6-137-1 and 7-93-2 over his last three meetings. I’m pretty interested in Diggs this weekend.

Meanwhile, Adam Thielen is a tougher sell. In two games since returning from his nagging hamstring injury, Thielen has caught just three of seven targets for 27 yards and no touchdowns. There will be opportunity for him in this game, as the Saints are coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this year, as well as the fifth-most targets per game to the position (21.5). Opposing offenses are also calling pass 65.4 percent of the time against New Orleans this season, the second-highest rate in the league.

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Thielen will probably see a fair share of time against Janoris Jenkins, who has played 13 slot coverage snaps since joining the Saints, while Thielen has been in the slot less this year. The matchup with Jenkins isn’t awful, however, as he’s allowed 0.47 fantasy points per coverage snap and 1.93 fantasy points per target. However, at the moment, Diggs seems like the more trustworthy receiver from Minnesota.

In two games since Thielen’s return, Kyle Rudolph has seen just five total targets. During that same span, Rudolph is just 33rd among all tight ends in routes run, averaging 18 routes run per game. However, in Weeks 9-14 with Thielen sidelined, Rudolph was 14th at his position in routes run, averaging nearly 23 routes run per contest. He is also splitting work with Irv Smith Jr., who only trails Rudolph in red zone and end zone targets by three. Neither are anything more than GPP fliers for NFL DFS but Smith is very cheap.

Vikings running game

After missing the last two games with a shoulder/chest injury, Dalvin Cook is ready to roll in this game. The time to rest should do wonders for him and Cook stated that he will be full-go for this playoff contest. Of course, he has left in the middle of the game multiple times this season, which will likely scare plenty of people off of him, especially in a poor matchup. It has been over 40 games since the Saints have allowed a 100-yard rusher, while 27.4 percent of the yardage surrendered by this defense this year has come on the ground, the fourth-lowest rate in football. This expects to be a high-scoring game, though and Cook will return to lead-back duties, averaging 18 carries, 3.8 receptions and 4.5 targets per game on the season.

New Orleans has been without defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport, which should theoretically hurt this run defense, but they have been very good over the last two weeks. Of course, they faced a Colts offense that didn’t show up and then an imploding Panthers offense led by Will Grier last week. The matchup isn’t great but Cook has plenty of pass-catching and touchdown-scoring upside whenever he is healthy.

Saints passing game

This absolutely seems like a smash spot for Drew Brees and the New Orleans aerial attack. For starters, Brees is at home where he is averaging 27.7 fantasy points per game, compared to 15.6 points per game on the road. He’s thrown for at least three touchdowns in six of his last seven games and is now third among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.55). Brees is also first in true completion rate (80.4%), fifth in play-action completion rate (73%), fourth in red zone completion rate (74.1%) and fifth in pressured completion rate (45.0%). Now he gets to host a struggling Minnesota secondary that has been quite the pass funnel.

On the season, 74.1 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Vikings have come through the air, the highest rate in football. Opposing offenses are calling pass 61.6 percent of the time against Minnesota, which is the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Brees is red hot and should continue to post big numbers this weekend. He’s the top quarterback play on the board.

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Of course, Michael Thomas is obviously the top receiver play every week. With a league-leading 33.3 percent target share, you know Thomas is going to get the looks, especially if the Saints struggle to run the ball in this game. The Vikings secondary has been so bad this season, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, as well as the second-most receptions per game to the position (14.4). Two weeks ago we saw Davante Adams record a career-high 13 catches and Thomas is a much more efficient wideout. The Vikings have allowed seven different pass-catchers to reach the 100-yard mark against them this season so lock and load Thomas.

The question is if you want to gamble on any other New Orleans receiver. And whether it is Tre’Quan Smith or Ted Ginn Jr., keep in mind that it is a gamble. Smith is probably the safer bet, as he’s found the end zone in four of the last six games and has played 68 percent of the snaps during that span, while Ginn is only at 43 percent of the snaps. But with Thomas handling over 60 percent of the wide receiver targets for the Saints, you are likely going to need a touchdown from one of these guys because they aren’t going to rack up a ton of receptions. But this is definitely a matchup you can attack.

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You feel much better getting exposure to tight end Jared Cook than these secondary receivers. Cook has become the go-to red zone option for Brees as of late, finding the end zone five times over his last four games. Cook now leads all tight ends with 11 end zone targets, handling nearly 18 percent of the end zone looks on the season. The Vikings are allowing eight targets per game to opposing tight ends (8th-most) which is good for Cook, who has seen less than five targets in each of his last four games. The inconsistent target totals makes him more of an NFL DFS GPP play than cash but he’s intriguing, nonetheless.

Saints running game

Well, Alvin Kamara picked a wonderful time to wake up. After not finding the end zone once for nine consecutive weeks, Kamara has now scored four touchdowns over the last two games. The Saints are finally giving him those high-value touches around the goal line, as Kamara has three carries from inside the five-yard line over the last two weeks. While it has been a disappointing season, Kamara is still averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the year, up from his 2018 campaign. The Vikings have been good against the run for the majority of the season but over the last two weeks, they have allowed over 200 yards and three touchdowns to the combination of Aaron Jones and Mike Boone. Kamara is a fine play, especially on DraftKings where you know you are going to get anywhere between five and 10 targets.

And because this is such a small slate, Latavius Murray could be worth a look as a pivot. If he steals two goal line touchdowns from Kamara, you are getting a massive edge over the field. And if god forbid Kamara were to get hurt, Murray would be an every-down back.

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 45.5

Line: SEA -1.5

Seahawks passing game

Russell Wilson is very interesting in this spot. The Seahawks probably won’t find success running the football, which could lead to 45 pass attempts from Wilson. If you could guarantee 40 passes from Wilson in this game, he’d rival Brees as the top quarterback play on the board. But Seattle just refuses to let their best player lead them, as they are calling run 46 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Regardless of game script, the Seahawks just don’t let Wilson air it out. It is worth noting that Wilson has taken a big step back as of late, averaging 0.41 fantasy points per dropback since Week 10, which ranks 20th among all quarterbacks.

During that same span, Wilson is also 21st in touchdown passes (nine), 17th in passing yards (1,605) and hasn’t thrown for 300 yards. However, I still have interest in him here against a vulnerable Philadelphia pass defense. With the current state of Seattle’s running game and an elite Eagles run defense on the other side, Wilson could have to throw quite a bit here. 72.8 percent of the yardage surrendered by Philadelphia has come through the air, the third-highest rate in the league. Teams are also passing 63.5 percent of the time against the Eagles, also the third-highest clip. And because he leads the NFL in end zone throws (59), he could easily score four touchdowns on 32 pass attempts, for instance.

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Who knows what we’re going to get from Tyler Lockett on Sunday? I sure don’t. He’s been under 60 receiving yards in six of his last seven games but he always has that massive game in his range of outcomes like we saw in Carolina a few weeks back. Because the Eagles corners aren’t very good, Lockett can easily have another big game here, especially if the Seahawks do see an uptick in pass attempts. However, it is worth noting that Philadelphia is surrendering the fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season (12.0), where Lockett is operating just about 70 percent of the time. Lockett is always worth a look in tournaments and if Wilson throws multiple touchdown passes, there is a good chance he gets at least one, as he is fourth in the league with 14 end zone targets.

However, if I am playing a Seattle wideout, I’m going to D.K. Metcalf. The rookie leads the NFL in end zone looks with 18 and has been way more involved in this offense than I thought he’d be this year. Metcalf had 12 targets last week and has seen at least six targets in all but two games since Week 9. He has also recorded either 75 yards or a touchdown in five of his last eight games and now gets a favorable matchup with the Eagles, who have allowed 10 100-yard receivers this year.

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The Eagles are also surrendering 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing left receivers this year, the second-most in the league. That bodes well for Metcalf, who is lining up in the left side of the formation 63 percent of the time. Metcalf will line up against Jalen Mills and probably some Rasul Douglas in this game. Douglas (6’2”), has the size to match up with Metcalf but he ran a 4.59 40-yard dash. Mills, meanwhile, is three inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter than Metcalf, and is also allowing a healthy 0.45 fantasy points per coverage snap.

Tight end Jacob Hollister has not scored a touchdown in six consecutive games, though he has seen at least six targets in four of his last five games. The Eagles have been very good against opposing tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (7.6), fifth-fewest receptions per game (4.1) and fifth-fewest yards per game (42.6) to the position. However, the tight end position is always a crapshoot, so someone with Hollister’s role, tied to a great quarterback, cannot be ignored on a four-game slate.

Seahawks running game

Travis Homer has the makings of a really good story. The sixth-round draft pick has been thrust into the starting role with Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise all done for the year. Last week, Homer played 67 percent of the snaps and ran 27 pass routes against the 49ers, touching the football 15 times. He’s caught 11 of 13 targets over the last two weeks, ranking 13th among running backs in routes run during that span (45). And that is despite not starting that first game.

The $5,300 price tag is a bit scary, even on a PPR site like DraftKings. Homer could lose touchdown opportunities to Marshawn Lynch, who got the carry inside the five-yard line last week and scored. The Seahawks were also set to put him in for another goal line carry at the end of the game but a delay of game penalty moved them backwards. This matchup is definitely tough, as 27.1 percent of the yardage allowed by the Eagles has come via the run, the third-highest rate in the league. But Lynch has multi-touchdown potential and Homer will be the pass-catching back.

Eagles passing game 

Carson Wentz just continues to get it done. Despite losing his top receivers and offensive linemen, Wentz has scored at least 17 fantasy points in five straight games. Of course, the matchups have been great, facing the Giants twice, Cowboys, Redskins and Dolphins. However, I am not overly-concerned with this matchup. Seattle currently ranks 29th in the league in pressure rate (19.3%), while allowing the sixth-most passing yards. What is weird is that despite the lack of pass catchers, the Eagles have been relying on Wentz’s arm, as he’s attempted at least 40 passes in every game since Week 11. Seattle has been allowing a ton of yardage but they’ve been a bend-don’t-break defense, sporting the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate against (3.2 percent).

Potentially not having both Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks on that offensive line is pretty scary, as the Eagles are sporting a lower yards per pass attempt and their explosive pass rate drops from 14.5% with Johnson on the field to 10.7% with him off of it. However, as I mentioned, Seattle’s pass-rush has been non-existent this season, which definitely helps. This feels like a slower, lower-scoring game, making Wentz a middling option.

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Greg Ward continues to take advantage of his recent opportunity. The former college quarterback who came off the practice squad a month ago is now Philadelphia’s number-one receiver, averaging a solid 7.5 targets per game over the last four weeks. With Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz out, Ward has been running around 60 percent of his routes from the slot, serving as a safety valve for Wentz. Seattle is slightly below league average at defending the slot so this isn’t an incredible matchup but also not an awful one. Ertz still hasn’t been cleared for contact and is facing an uphill battle to suit up this week. Ward seems like a safe play this week.

Other than Ward, you are really gambling on these other wideouts. Rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has really struggled this year and played just 17 snaps last week, which is a bad sign when you consider who the Eagles are rolling out at wide receiver. Robert Davis operated as the number-two receiver behind Ward, logging a team-high 78 percent of the snaps in Week 17. He was only targeted twice and failed to record a catch but he did run a respectable 33 routes in the game. The volume won’t be there but all you need is one play, especially at $3,200.

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Dealing with a lacerated kidney and broken ribs, I’d be pretty surprised if Ertz played in this game. Assuming he sits, Dallas Goedert becomes the clear-cut top tight end on the slate. Over the last two weeks, Goedert is seventh among all tight ends in routes run (71) and he continues to run out of the slot more given the Eagles injuries. Goedert is fifth among all tight ends in yards after the catch (337), averaging nearly four per target. Assuming Ertz is out, the Eagles will need to replace 24 percent of their targets and the matchup is great. Seattle allowed the fourth-most receptions (97), second-most yards (1,099) and second-most fantasy points per game (12.19) to opposing tight ends during the regular season.

Eagles running game

Oh, look. More injuries. Rookie running back Miles Sanders left last week’s game with an ankle injury and the team is calling it a low-grade ankle sprain. The Eagles are expecting Sanders to play on Sunday but ankle injuries for running backs are pretty scary, especially when you are already at risk of being in a committee. The Eagles have Boston Scott, who exploded for three touchdowns and 138 total yards on 23 touches last week. He’s been used as a receiver when Sanders has been healthy, seeing at least six targets in each of the last four games.

The two games against the Giants where he got 10 carries or more came when Sanders left the game early. But the Eagles also said Jordan Howard should have a bigger role this week but since he played just one snap last week, how much bigger of a role are we talking? If Sanders can’t go, Howard would obviously have to play more and would likely be the team’s goal line back. But Scott would still be more than viable, especially against a Seattle defense allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing backfields (51.1). Keep an eye on this backfield throughout the week and heading into the weekend.

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